Yesterday I made a mistake in trying to force the Lazyman trade in two matches. I read back my notes and said I wouldn't do this but I ignored my own advice and lost. The matches I picked were actually very close. Stevens was just 1 shot away from forcing a decider and a winning trade and Tom Ford threw away plenty of chances to put Lee under pressure. The problem here was the format, 4 frames is just not enough time to recover a trade if a player takes a 2-0 lead as was the case in both these matches. I shall not be trading these matches in the future with this strategy.
Today is much better and I can see the Lazyman working well in the two lunchtime sessions.
13:30 - Ronnie O’Sullivan 2.02 v Judd Trump 1.96 - H2H 3-4
The bookies are split on this one with half putting Ronnie as fav and a -1.5 hcap. The others have Judd as fav with a -1.5 hcap. I think Judd's the man to win this after destroying Bingham yesterday and he's in with a real chance of lifting the title.
Trade
Lays @1.76 on both. (Full-fat stakes)
13:30 - Shaun Murphy 1.99 v Mark Allen 2.00 - H2H 5-2
Another split opinion from the bookies on the -1.5 hcap line. The head to heads are in Murphy's favour and he won their last meeting in a decider. I'm hoping it will be close again. Allen is in probably the better form of the two and I fancy him to edge it.
Trade
Lays @1.76 on both. (Full-fat stakes)
19:00 - Stephen Maguire1.98 v Mark Selby 1.98
Looking at the odds this looks like a layzman trade BUT for me it seems risky. I refer to my note from yesterday - 'note to self - Maguire outside bet for world championships'. Selby is not carrying the mantle of World #1 with any ease and the quicker he losses the top spot the quicker he'll return to form. Maguire on the other hand is in rude form and if he can just become a little more clinical in his finishing he could be a world beater.
Trade
Lays @1.76 on both. (Low-fat stakes)
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