RG 1st round

Hoho, what a bad day was that... 4 picks all 4 lost. As promised, I'll be starting also with the trade of the day section today. First the picks after them it's trade of the day.

Picks:

11.00 - Martinez - Birnerova (WTA, Roland Garros), Martinez to win@1.51 (Double stake), Martinez 4-6, 6-4, 8-6. WIN.
11.00 - Hanescu - Andujar (ATP, Roland Garros), Hanescu+1.5sets@2.13, Andujar 6-1, 2-6, 1-6, 6-3, 6-1. WIN.
15.00 - Krajinovic - Devilder (ATP, Roland Garros), Krajinovic to win@1.80, Devilder 6-2, 6-2, 6-0. LOST.
15.00 - Sijsling - Muller (ATP, Roland Garros), Muller to win@1.97, Muller 2-6, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6. WIN.
15.00 - Mahut - Roddick (ATP, Roland Garros), Mahut to win@2.29, Mahut 6-3, 6-3, 4-6, 6-2. WIN.
17.00 - Johansson - Rodionova (WTA, Roland Garros), Rodionova to win@2.00, Johansson 4-6, 7-6, 7-5. LOST.
17.00 - Chang - Pavlovic (WTA, Roland Garros), Chang to win@2.36, Pavlovic 6-4, 7-5. LOST.
17.00 - Garcia - Pfizenmaier (WTA, Roland Garros), Garcia to win@1.92, Pfizenmaier 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. LOST.
17.00 - Tatishivli - Glatch (WTA, Roland Garros), Glatch+3.5games@1.86, Glatch 6-3, 5-7, 6-4. WIN.
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TRADE OF THE DAY:
Sadly I won't be at home before 15.00 (GMT+2), else trade of the day would surely be laying Andujar vs Hanescu, as I don't see Andujar winning this game in 3 straight sets and Andujars odds are really, really too low. But, fuck it, still a lot of value matches later on. The ones that in top 3 for trade of the day are: Roddick vs Mahut, Chang vs Pavlovic and Tatishvili vs Glatch. Because there are just too many unknown factors in Chang vs Pavlovic I won't choose that one and Glatch could also have a bad game, so we are left just with Roddick vs Mahut.


17.00 - Mahut - Roddick (ATP, Roland Garros).
Preview: Roddick starts here as 1.73/1.74 favourite and that is probably correct as Roddick beat Mahut four times in a row (all 4 matches on fast courts and last one 4 years ago) and he is ranked about 50 places higher. But on other hand, Roddick was pretty awful on clay this year. Well, he actually played just 3 matches in Dusseldorf tournament and lost all 3 (Berdych, Berlocq, Soeda) without winning a set. So his win in Miami vs Federer (hard court) was probably just a exception. But, we all know that players like Roddick can lift their game in important matches and he will be definitely motivated here. Mahut was also resting for about month and a half (wrist injury), so he left out mostly all clay tournaments. He did get back previous week in Bordeaux and played decent tennis and was kicked out vs Gabashvili in QF. Serve in last few games was definitely a bigger weapon for Mahut then for Roddick and that will count a lot, since I see Mahut rushing to the net frequently. Mahut is also known that he can raise his level of play on home soil and here he will definitely have a huge support from the crowd. I think Mahut will start stronger here and will win first set then we will see if Roddick can find some sort of form (or serve) and if he does, he has all the chances to win the game. I see a tight match if Roddick will be up for it, maybe 5 or at least 4 sets, with Mahut probably the stronger one (if he won't get too pissed at anything).
 


Trade: I'll start with laying Roddick and will close the trade if Roddick will look too confortable on his serve. If Mahut will broke him first, I'll stay in and wait until Mahut takes first set. After that I'll take the half of the profit out and leave the other half still on Mahut and hedge the profit when Mahut will have BP in 2nd set. After that I'll try laying Mahut (on very low odds), because Roddick can definitely get back and win the game if he is 2 sets down. If in any case, Roddick will win first set, then I'll be laying him on lower odds, since I really don't see a total collapse from Mahut.