July, welcome

Morning. Another great day at picks to end not so bright month, which will end with small loss. Trade of the day didn't go exactly as planned, but my faith in Zakopalova has given me nice return, as I had two full-stake lays on Kirilenko in first set (second lay was more planned for the start of 2nd set), but Zakopalova made a terrific comeback in 1st set from 0-4 down to 6-4. Not a lot of promising matches today, but I'm sure there will be plenty of opportunities for picks and for good trades. First the picks:

PICKS:

13.00 - Petrova - Stosur (WTA, Roland Garros), Petrova+1.5sets@1.91, Stosur 6-3, 6-3. LOST.
13.00 - Garrigues - Martic (WTA, Roland Garros), Martic to win@2.20, Martic 6-2, 6-1. WIN.
15.00 - Del Potro - Cilic (ATP, Roland Garros), Cilic+1.5sets@2.52, Del Potro 3-0. LOST.
15.00 - Simon - Wawrinka (ATP, Roland Garros), Wawrinka to win@1.77, Wawrinka 7-5, 6-7, 6-7, 6-3, 6-2. WIN.

That's it for today.

At trade of the day I'm thinking about Petrova Stosur match or Errani vs Ivanovic. I would rather take any of the later matches (Cilic-Del Potro or Goffin-Kubot), but sadly I'll not be at home for those matches.

TRADE OF THE DAY:

11.00 - Ivanovic - Errani (WTA, Roland Garros)

Preview: Ivanovic (13) vs Errani (27) suggest a tight match. They have played twice in year 2009 with both wins in straight sets to Serbian (grass, clay). But situation changed vastly in last 3 years, as Ivanovic was ranked 8 in 2009 and Errani around 40, so we see that Errani was gaining ranks and Ivanovic going up the ranks. Fact that Errani has played in last 6 months 21 games and lost just 2 of them speak for itself. In same time period Ivanovic played 9 matches, and won 6 and lost 3. Sadly Errani has lost a bit of her momentum in her last two matches as she dropped a set to Dellacqua and had some minor problems with Oudin. Ivanovic on other hand was breezing through her opponents and lost just 6 games in round 1 and 2 together (Peer and Arrubarrena-Vecino). Her 2012 clay results are great too, even thou she didn't progressed past round 16, but her loses were against superior opponents (Sharapova in Rome, Azarenka in Madrid and Barthel in Stuttgart). Errani won 3 clay tournaments this year (Barcelona with scalps of Goerges and Cibulkova, Budapest and Acapulco with scalps of Vinci and Pennetta). Saying that, Errani has not beat any player inside top 10 on clay this year, the highest ranked was Goerges at rank of 15. Style of play from Ivanovic and Errani is really different like day and night, while Errani is a baseline grinder who just doesn't want to give up with UE's close to zero, Ivanovic will try to attack with her great forehand shot which will be just too much for Errani if she will keep errors down as much as she can. Ivanovic could be problematic on serve, but lately she has improved that a lot too. Bottom line is: Ivanovic is a better and more skillfull player, who will win if she will attack her and if she will hit enough winners and keep errors down, else Errani might punish her for the errors she is making and mentally Ivanovic could also go down quicker then Errani. I see tight first set, with both girls ahead for some time and in the end we will see Ivanovic taking first set. I see great chance for Errani to come back if Ivanovic will relax way to much and then again, Ivanovic will probably get herself together and win the 3rd set. Definitely will not be walk over for her... Ivanovic 2-1.

Trade: I'll start with a half-stake lay on Ivanovic (1.47), but will have always in mind to escape out of trade with minimal red quicky if Ivanovic will start better. If Errani will get an early break I'll stick with lay on Ivanovic until I'll see her coming back. Then I'll hedge the green, back Ivanovic with half stake and wait for comeback. If that will happen that will be enough for me and I'll leave the match alone.