Yesterday my prediction on how the things will go weren't exactly accurate, we will hope for a better day today. Since I'll write about 5 matches, I'll try to be short and constructive.
1.00 - Kohlschreiber (2.29) vs Almagro (1.79) ATP Auckland (Quarter finals)
I must say from the start, that my big favourite on this encounter is Nicolas Almagro. Reasons? He started the year very poor and rusty. From match to match is he is showing better and better play and his level of UE is going down and serve is going up. They are both left-handers and they usually hit a lots of UE where I think Almagro will do a bit less errors. I'm going for a quite confident win for Almagro here, but I'll be approaching cautiusly and also trying to get a bit better odds then starting ones at 1.79...
Update: It was a very tight match where Almagro always looked a better player, had more chances to break and was getting more points on Kohlschreiber serve. But as he didn't take his chances (True that Kohlschreiber played awesome on big points), Kohlschreiber punished a series of 2nd serves in TB and took the first set. He then get first BP in the at 5-4 for Kohlschreiber and Almagro served a double to finish the game. I finished with quite big red. Kohlschreiber 7-6, 6-4.
4.30 Wickmayer (1.36) - Halep (3.70) - WTA Hobart (Quarter finals)
Wickmayer here really shouldn't have a lots of problems, she defeated Simona Halep easily twice last year. Seems like Wickmayer struggled just against Errani defending play. Halep does a lot more errors from Errani and will be struggling on hard strokes from Wickmayer. I'll be entering on 30:0, 40:0, 40:15 on Wickmayer serve and be waiting that she'll break her and then I'll probably green out. In case Wickmayer will be struggling on serve I'll wait and try to back her again on higher odds as I can see here only one winner and that is Wickmayer.
Update: Wickmayer was in control for the whole match and won 6-4, 6-0.
4.30 Verdasco (1.59) - Garcia-Lopez (2.80) - ATP Auckland (Quarter finals)
We will see another match full of breaks here. Verdasco's starting price is just too low, but you can never know who will have worse start Verdasco or GGL, so I'll wait a couple of games and lay Verdasco if he goes ahead or back him on higher odds if GGL goes ahead. I believe in game of a lots of breaks and turnarounds. In the end i see a more likely winner in Verdasco then in GGL, but it will be in 3 sets.
Update: Match rescheduled for today.
Azarenka was hitting quite a lot of errors in the start of 1st set against Bartoli, went 5-2 down but then she managed to fix her game and win it in straights. Radwanska played a very long and hard match against Wozniacki who was bothered with a wrist injury. She played like she only knows how to, with long rallies and with UE's down to ground zero. Azarenka will need to do a bit more then against Bartoli to win points and she'll be doing mistakes, so I believe Azarenka will trade higher and in previous encounters their match went to 3 sets. Start with a lay on Azarenka then on some point turn to Azarenka if she will not be tanking it. Radwanska to win in 3 sets.
Update: Radwanska get an easy first set, then Azarenka showed her real strentgth and won. But it wasn't so easy as it looked as Azarenka saved 12 out of 15 break points.
Clear favourite here is Del Potro. But it won't be that easy as the odds suggest. It will be just a matter of one break in each set and it might go to a tie break too. Del Potro could just depend on his serve and he is something too passive on recieveing side. I'll be trying to back the servers on this match, but not from start as I need them to settle with their serve. Baghdatis break up for backing the server would be even nicer. I'll apply the classical back the server strategy on this one and we will see if there will be any profit. I won't be doing this till forever, when there will be enough profit I may put a free bet on Del Potro as I see him to win in two tight straight sets.
Update: No breaks in first set and it went to TB which was won by Baghdatis. In second set Baghdatis didn't offer a single BP to Del Potro, which choked and was broken close to the end of 2nd set. One of the best matches from Baghdatis in some time.
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