Three tennis trade picks

Hello there.

We will have a lot of decent matches today, traders should also be back from their break yesterday when BetFair was having a maintance during the tennis matches. I'm really sad that BetDaq day didn't worked out yesterday, so we are back too BF. Enough babbling and on to the bussiness:

3.00 - Stepanek (1.78) vs Nieminen (2.24) - ATP Sydney (hard court)

Stepanek and Nieminen played each other week ago in Brisbane, where Stepanek had won in straight sets (7:6, 6:2), after that Stepanek had a pretty tricky knee injury vs Dolgopolov after leading 1-0 sets and then lost. I was a bit sceptical for him (to even) start in Sydney this week, but he played a decent match vs Malisse and won 2:1. Nieminen on the other hand played 4 qualies matches in Sydney, won both very easily but he had very easy and not skillfull opponnents and yet he was being broken way too many times, but he found a way to break back every time. I think in this game serving will be beneficial and as I see Stepanek currently way more reliable on serve game I believe he will come through at the end, but I expect a lot of break points (at least) on each side. My call is Stepanek to win in 2 tight sets or maybe in 3 sets. And a fact: Stepanek has won 6 out of 7 matches against left-handers and of course Jarkko is left-hander and H2H Stepanek leads 6-2. History from next week repeating?


Trade: Odds for Stepanek are quite juicy from the start as 1.75-1.78 looks ok for me, I'll go half-stake backing Stepanek from start and adding as If I'll see Stepanek dominating. If Stepanek will be struggling I'll go out, waiting to lay Niemienen (if he gets break up) at lower odds. Main concern here is injury scare from Stepanek.

Update: Match with amazing record of breaks of serve. Nieminen won 2-1, but he was broken 6 times, but luckily for him, he managed to break Stepanek 8 times. Nieminen started better, got an early break and hold to 2-0. I decided to enter on lay side there, Stepanek broke back, but was broken again. They exchanged a couple of breaks in first set and after securing some profit I just let the match go. Stepanek came back, but he continued with his awful game on his serve.

3.00 Sweeting (2.48) - Istomin (1.69) - ATP Sydney (hard court)

Sweeting come here as a lucky loser vs Michael Russel which definitely isn't a result he should be proud of. THen he made a surprise victory against Gilles Muller in 1st round and is now facing very up and downish Istomin, who dropped a set vs both Australian wild cards boys (Reid and Feeney) which definitely isn't a good sign.  Looks like Sweeting likes to play vs  strong servers, who tend to finish points quickly. They have never played each other before. My call is that Sweeting will go ahead and maybe win a set and afterwards Istomin will come back and probably win the 3rd set.

Trade: I'll wait a little, at least for Istomin to serve and then lay Istomin on around 1.50 which I think it will be managable position to trade since i expect very tight first set. My exit point on that lay will be BP for Istomin. If Sweeting will break i'll wait for hold and If Sweeting will win 1st set I'll lay him and we'll see if Istomin can get back.

Update: Easy win for Istomin. Sweeting got his one and only BP in 1st game of the match and from there it was just a downfall for him. I didn't traded the game since there was not enough money on it.

4.00 Baghdatis (1.38) vs Ebden (3.55) - ATP Sydney (hard court)
This one was the easier for me to choose. We have a big favourite who still has some value. Baghdatis has come back from his dreadful form last year and is playing very good tennis lately. Murray was obviously too tough cookie for him to handle previous week, but he'll do his best here as he is defending champion of 2011. Home boy Ebden played in Brisbane and lost vs Stepanek in 3 sets and won 1st round here against Granollers. I watched Ebden vs Granollers in 1st and 2nd set and It really didn't look strong and I really don't know how Granollers lost that 3rd set. Ebden is a player who likes to finish his points very quickly, so he'll be either winning his serves easily or being broken very fast, but he I'll have problems coming back against Baghdatis, that's for sure. Ebden's aggressive and fast style of play will produce some damage to Baghdatis, but he is just full of errors so he will not be able to keep his level of play high for very long. Baghdatis in 2 sets.

Trade: Well, 1.38 is a bit to low to back, but I'll be satisfied with as low as 1.50. I personally (but unlikely) hope for a better start for Ebden, so I can back Baghdatis on higher odds, else I'll be satisfied with a bit lower number. Exit point is 2nd serve and BP for Ebden once I enter. If all goes well, I'll be closing at below 1.10 quickly after 1st set.

Update: Bagdatis started very lazy and didn't show any interest of winning the first set. Ebden was solid and strong on his serve and managed a break. Baghdatis turned back in second set and It looked like he will win 3rd one easily, but Ebden was a tough opponent, and Baghdatis needed to win it in 3rd set tie-break. I backed Baghdatis prematurely left that back bet open, layed Ebden at start of 2nd set and because it was too dangerous I just went out with zero profit better then risk a lot.

After all, it was a solid night of trading, but I did get most of the money on matches I didn't believe I would.