Masters Snooker - Jan 16

A couple of days away from trading for me. I often find that if I'm losing or scratching trades and leaving money in the market my confidence can drop and I find myself tensing up and unable to get in the zone and flow. A small break combined with dropping my stakes to well within my comfort zone I find helps me to refocus.

I've had a little bit of good fortune on the horses with 2 x 11/1 doubles and an amazing 174/1 treble which I was able to hedge for good profits. Backing horses, (even with a solid hedging strategy) is always going to suffer losing runs, with the wins (when they come) of offsetting the loses. It requires good bank management and to look at the long-term P&L rather than the day or week.

On the trading front I've got myself back into the zone with a 15% ROI on the snooker, 30% ROI on the darts and 185% ROI on the football. Small stakes admittedly but just the boost I need to my confidence after a patch start to 2012.

On to the snooker...

The Masters Snooker is a real treat. The invitational event attracts the worlds top 16 players and the quality of snooker on display is exceptional. If you've ever tried to play snooker you'll appreciate just how skilled these players really are. The opening matches saw Ronnie O'Sullivan and Mark Williams progress at the expense of defending champion Ding Junhui and #9 seed Steven Maguire. Both matches were close, both finishing 6-4 though the winners were never behind.

Matches - Jan 16

12:30 - Judd Trump - 1.43 (8) v Stuart Bingham - 3.25 (11)
Trump is the form player and rightly starts as favourite. After exploding onto the scene with a win at the China Open he finished 2011 with a fantastic win at the British Championships. Before 2011 that he'd only passed the 2nd round of a ranking event on one occasion. From being a relative unknown he now has the weight of expectation on his shoulders. He's not short of confidence and if there is a tiny chance of a pot he'll take it often at the risk of safety. That said he's not started tournaments well and is vulnerable to sulking if things don't go his way. He didn't really hit his stride until the QF's of the British Championships. Bingham will feel he has nothing to lose  and I can see him taking the first frame or 2 before Trump gets serious.

Update: Trump took the first frame then twice went behind before winning 6-4. This provided a couple of good swings and 48% ROI. We are now all set for a cracking 2nd round match with Ronnie O'Sullivan. 

19:00 - Shaun Murphy - 1.58 (6) v Martin Gould - 2.7 (16)
This could be closer than the odds suggest. Gould has rapidly risen up the rankings after returning to professional snooker after a break. He impressed me in the made for TV, Power Snooker format convincingly  beating strong favourite and defending champion Ronnie O'Sullivan the final. Head to head Murphy leads 3-0 and in every aspect he's the better player on paper. In their last 2 meetings though Murphy has thrown away commanding leads and let Gould back into the game. Gould's a great potter of the ball and quick. If he can get ahead early I think he'll take this. If Murphy leads then a lay on him could be a profitable trade as Gould could run him close.

For a second opinion check out this excellent snooker blog. http://www.snookerbacker.com/