BDO World Darts Championships - Jan 11

The World Championships is in its second round and there are 4 matches tonight.

Darts trading has a lot of similarities with tennis, with breaks of throw similar to breaks of serve, "Legs" similar to games and sets similar to eh...Sets.

That said, there are differences. Darts is played at a frenetic pace and games between top players can be over in heartbeat. It's a game played by big men and what they lack in physical fitness they make up for in mental toughness. In evenly matched games, (which we'll see more of after the early rounds are completed) psychology plays a massive part in the game. When a player makes a mistake, say a low score, the player throwing next will often choke and fail to punish the mistake. It amazing how often this happens.

The real pressure though will come on the out shot, which must be finished on a double. The players who are so consistent often tense up when they feel the pressure of winning the game, set or match. Last night 19 consecutive darts where missed on the last double of a match. These players can hit these doubles  in practice with incredible consistency but add in the pressure of the match and they can sometimes look like amateurs.

My trading strategy plays on the strange way pressure effects theses players. You'll often see a player in the lead crack and let a competitor back into the match. This allows me to lay both players once their odds are below 1.80 topping up each time they are matched. In the longer second round format with the best of 7 sets, there is more chance of a swing between the players and a good start is less critical. This strategy can be very profitable when it works, particularly if you lay at lower odd as well say 1.76, 1.56 and 1.46, get matched on both ladders and you'll be delighted with the result.

The downside is that if the match is one sided you'll end up with liability on one player and be stuck with the loss. Try it out with small stakes and see if its for you.

If you're very brave you can scalp the small swings on missed out shots. The price will be lower the more the shot has riding on it. Game, break of throw or set. You can lay before the shot and back after its missed. Avoid the final shot as they'll be no way back if they hit it. Unless you like a gamble!. 19 opportunities last night in one match.

Tonight's Picks.

17:15 - Atkins 1.91 v Van De Wiel (10) 2.08
This should be a close one. Too close to pick a winner. I'll be laying both below 1.80 and hoping for a good swing before the decisive break. Which may not be until the penultimate set. I'll be out before the decider.

Update: The qualifier Atkins stormed into 3-0 lead and looked to be on the way to the quarter finals. Atkins let the pressure get to him and the Dutchman clawed his way back to 3-2 and a chance to take it to a deciding set. After doing the all the hard-work De Wiel cracked and Atkins showed great composure to win with an excellent finish on double top.
Atkins 4-2.

18:30 - Hankey (15) 3.05 v Waites (2) 1.49
This will be a great game to watch but I can't see past Waites here. I'll be backing half stake on Waites at the start and topping up if I can get a higher price.

Update: A massive upset with the talented but inconsistent Hankey knocking at the World Champion. He did it the hard way, twice coming from behind at 2-1 and 3-2 to take a deciding set. Waites looked nervous missing 11 consecutive darts. Hankey (unusually) was composed, taking 5 legs in row, he wobbled in the penultimate game but was awesome finishing from 144 for the match.
Hankey 4-3.

21:00 - Winsantley (3) 1.37 v Norris 3.6
Deano, last years runner-up should have no problem against the qualifier.  I'll be backing half stake on Winstanley at the start and topping up if I can get a higher price.

Update: An even bigger upset in my opinion, Winstanley is the world number 1 in waiting and I'd backed him to go one better than last year and win the tournament. Like Waites before him he threw a way a lead an let Norris back in.
Norris 4-3.