26. 12. 12

NEW SITE IS UP AND RUNNING

Hello.

I would just like to inform you that my new site has just opened - you can check it out at - WWW.NORDAVIND-TENNIS.COM . If you'll be fast enough you could still get some of the share of my big promotions, discounts and trials. This blog will be retired from now on.

4. 12. 12

Launch of my new site

Long time no see or hear. Well, just around 20 days and the new tennis season will start. I'm very anxious to see the start of new season with a lots of unknown factors. I'm personally working on opening my new site, which will see the light of the day around 25-26th of December. It will be a tennis trading (guided) service mostly for amateurs or semi-pro's, and also with some straight betting. There will be huge discounts for first members and if any of my followers or readers are interested about it, you should send me the e-mail to: nordavind.tennis@gmail and I'll add you to the list, so you'll be informed about the launch of my site and all other details (BTW: I'll be also giving a lots of info for free too).




On other note: I have been searching through a lots of trading blogs lately and I have discovered that just a small number of them stays alive for more then 1 year. And that obviously tennis trading scene is quite small, as I know most of the names that are publishing about their trading "personally".

17. 11. 12

Davis Cup day 2

Hi there.

The result stands on 1:1 as both favourites (Ferrer and Berdych) provided their nation a point. Ferrer was always in control vs Stepanek and won in the end by 3:0 and with significantly better game then Czech veteran. On the other hand, Berdych had a lots of problems vs Almagro, who really played on top level, but was unfortunately broken twice in the deciding (5th set) and therefor lost the match 3:2.

Today there are only doubles: as predicted Minar/Rosol have been replaced by Stepanek/Berdych and will play vs WTF London winners Granollers/M.Lopez. Oddly favourites here are Stepanek and Berdych, but I favour more the experienced duo Grano and Lopez. Odds are currently at 1.68 for a win for Stepanek/Berdych and I'll be looking for a quick lay of that as I see very tight match where considering the surface is ultra fast the value is more on home pair, but not at starting odds.

16. 11. 12

Davis Cup

Hello there. It was only about a week without tennis and I'm already missing it. In next 3 days we will have Davis Cup finals where Czech will play vs Spain. I won't be doing picks just for Davis cup, but I'll write some thoughts about it.

Home team are Czechs with Berdych and Stepanek in singles (Rosol is substitution) and probably Berdych/Stepanek in doubles even thou Minar and Rosol are officially listed for doubles, but I really doubt Stepanek will not play doubles. Spain is playing with Ferrer and Almagro in singles (F. Lopez is very angry that he wasn't been choosen) and M. Lopez & Granollers in doubles. (winners at WTF in doubles in London).  Czechs have choosen very fast indoor hard court in Prague as they see their chance in fast surface (both Stepanek and Berdych prefer fast courts).

Bookies have Czechs as the favourites, but It will be a tough competition and I definitely don't see Czech the favourites just because they are hosts and with Spain as the last years winners.

The day starts at 16.00 with a clash of Stepanek vs Ferrer and then followed at 18.00 with Berdych vs Almagro.

Both favourites (Ferrer@1.19 and Berdych@1.17) look waaay to low considering the importance of the matches and that it's 5-sets match. I believe Stepanek will want to have a better start then Ferrer as I don't see him sneaking the win by getting from behind. So, a lay from the start should be quite efficient as 1st set might go into Stepanek's favour and then he can be carried on on the waves of the home crowd. In reality i more likely see Ferrer getting back after losing first set and getting win at the at 3-1 or even 3-2 for Ferrer. <

Berdych and Almagro had some nasty stuff in their recent H2H matches and this game will definitely not be a friendly match. I see tight sets (some tie-breaks too) in this match but eventually Berdych will win it, but Almagro will be certainly up for it, as he doesn't want to disappoint media as Feliciano Lopez is very angry that Almagro was choosen to play instead of him. If that was the right decision from Alex Corretja we will see today, but Almagro will try to prove that he was the right choice. Berdych to win 3-1 or 3-0 in tight sets, but Berdych will definitely trade higher then starting 1.15.

BTW: I'm also working on my new page which will see the light of the day somewhere in the middle of December with a massive over -50% discount offer for new members. Check my blog for some new info about that or drop me an e-mail to mitja.gruber@gmail.com

5. 11. 12

Having a rest

Hey there. I'll be having a rest with my picks for the beginning of the season, since there are not enough matches per day to be able to do at least 3 normal picks per day. I was thinking about joining two days together, but still too hard and risky to do 3 picks with 4 matches. I'll be still trading, so I'm waiting for higher prices on Murray, Djokovic and Federer on their first matches, else I'm not getting involved. And maybe I'll start with a small back on Del Potro (but probably not,as he's not a quick starter) vs Ferrer.

4. 11. 12

Finals

It's been another pretty average day on the picks, but better on trading side, as I recovered all of my losses from the day before. Tonights picks are short of value, as there aren't many games on and I need to chose from what we have... 

LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET
STAKE: 16 EUR (level 4)

11.00 - Ivanovic - Kvitova (WTA, Fed Cup, Prague), Lay Kvitova@1.30 (16EUR)

Ivanovic won 6-3, 7-5.
Profit/Loss: +16.00 EUR

PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 2 EUR (level 1)

 12.15 - Safarova - Jankovic (WTA, Fed Cup, Prague), Back Safarova@1.70 (2EUR)
Safarova won 6-1 and 6-1.

Profit/Loss: +1.40 EUR

BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

15.00 - Ferrer- Janowicz (ATP, Paris), Back Ferrer@1.48 (10EUR)
Ferrer won 1st set 6-4 and 2nd 6-4.

Profit/Loss: +4.80 EUR

Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 14/36 (level 1), +101.18 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 13/36 (level 1), -2.30 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 19/36 (always same level), +89.32 EUR

Overall: +188.20 EUR

3. 11. 12

Whoopi

I somehow erradicted this post, so I'll put it back from the memory...
 

LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET
STAKE: 8 EUR (level 3)

17.00 - Llodra - Ferrer (ATP, Paris), Lay Ferrer@1.46 (8EUR)

Ferrer won 1st 7-5.
Lay Ferrer@1.15 (8 EUR)
Ferrer won 2nd set 6-3.

Profit/Loss: -4.88 EUR


PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 4 EUR (level 2)

12.15 - Safarova - Ivanovic (WTA, Fed Cup, Prague), Back Safarova@2.44 (4EUR)
Safarova won 6-4, 6-3.
Profit/Loss: +5.76 EUR


BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

17.00 - Petrova - Vinci (WTA, Sofia), Back Vinci@1.94 (10EUR)Vinci won 1st set 7-6.
Petrova won 2nd set 6-4 and 3rd 6-3.
Profit/Loss: -10.00 EUR


Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 13/35 (level 3), +85.18 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 12/35 (level 1), -3.70 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 18/35 (always same level), +84.52 EUR

Overall: +166.00 EUR

2. 11. 12

Big guns day

Hi. Mediocre day on picks, but wonderful on trading side. Today we have QF's in Paris with some great odds (if you get them right) and last round of round-robin in Sofia. Here are the picks:

LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET
STAKE: 4 EUR (level 2)

17.15 - Petrova - Pironkova (WTA, Sofia), Lay Petrova@1.35 (4EUR)

Pironkova won 1st set 7-5.
Petrova won 2nd set 6-1 and 3rd set 6-3.

Profit/Loss: -1.40 EUR


PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 2 EUR (level 1)

20.30 - Llodra - Querrey (ATP, Paris), Back Querrey@1.86 (2EUR)
Llodra won 1st set 7-6.
Lay Llodra@1.38 (2 EUR)

Llodra won 2nd set 6-3.
Profit/Loss: -2.76 EUR


BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

19.00 - Hsieh - Hantuchova (WTA, Sofia), Back Hantuchova@1.55 (10EUR)
Hsieh won 1st set 6-1.
Lay Hsieh@1.30 (10 EUR)

Hantuchova won 2nd set 6-0.
Lay Hantuchova@1.55 (10 EUR)

Hsieh won 3rd set 6-3.
Profit/Loss: -3.00 EUR
Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 13/34 (level 3), +90.06 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 11/33 (level 2), -9.46 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 18/33 (always same level), +94.52 EUR

Overall: +175.12 EUR



1. 11. 12

Wonderfull month

Well, as you can see from the stats, it was another incredible day on the picks, as level 5 was a nice winner. Trading was ok too, even thou it was a hard day in the office. Here are todays picks:

LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET

STAKE: 2 EUR (level 1)

20.30 - Wawrinka - Ferrer (ATP, Paris), Lay Ferrer@1.51 (2EUR)

Ferrer won 1st set 6-2.
Lay Ferrer@1.15 (2 EUR)

Wawrinka won 2nd set 6-4.
Ferrer won 3rd set 6-2.
Profit/Loss: -1.30 EUR


PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 4 EUR (level 2)

16.50 - Raonic - Querrey (ATP, Paris), Back Querrey@2.24 (4EUR)
Querrey won first set 6-3 and 2nd 7-6.
Profit/Loss: +4.96 EUR

BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

14.50 - Kirilenko - Petrova (WTA, Sofia), Back Kirilenko@1.87 (10EUR)
Kirilenko won first set 6-3. 
Petrova won 2nd set 7-6 and 3rd 6-3.
Profit/Loss: -10.00 EUR


Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 13/33 (level 2), +91.46 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 11/32 (level 2), -6.70 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 18/32 (always same level), +97.52 EUR

Overall: +182.28 EUR


31. 10. 12

Day 3 of the week

Another decent day on picks and also on trades. Low-lay has reached level 5, so a very carefull pick there. I could also choose Raonic as a low-lay or Del Potro, or even maybe Kirilenko or Wozniacki. But I think Gasquet's body is done, so hope Anderson could take the advantage with his big serves.

LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET

STAKE: 32 EUR (level 5)

11.50 - Anderson - Gasquet (ATP, Paris), Lay Gasquet@1.51 (32EUR)

Anderson won first set 7-6.
Gasquet won 2nd 6-4.
Anderson won 3rd set 6-1.
Profit/Loss: +32.00 EUR


PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 2 EUR (level 1)

11.50 - Dimitrov - Monaco (ATP, Paris), Back Dimitrov@2.24 (2EUR)
Monaco won first set 7-6.
Lay Monaco@1.33 (2 EUR)
Monaco won 2nd set 6-2.
Profit/Loss: -2.66 EUR

BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

14.30 - Isner - Llodra (ATP, Paris), Back Llodra@2.60 (10EUR)
Llodra won 6-4, 7-6. 
Profit/Loss: +16.00 EUR
Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 13/32 (level 1), +92.76 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 11/32 (level 2), -11.66 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 18/32 (always same level), +107.52 EUR

Overall: +188.62 EUR

30. 10. 12

Paris Masters day 2

Holy cow. What a day yesterday was... I was just losing and losing, but in the end one move good move get me back on track. Picks were so, so, Klizan should have won as he was leading 5-2 in decider... Todays picks:

LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET
STAKE: 16 EUR (level 4)

14.50 - Vinci - Hantuchova (WTA, Sofia), Lay Vinci@1.52 (16EUR)

Vinci won 1st set 6-1.
Lay Vinci@1.12 (16 EUR)
Vinci won 2nd set 6-2.
Profit/Loss: -10.24 EUR


PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 4 EUR (level 2)

17.15 - Pironkova - Zheng (WTA, Sofia), Back Pironkova@1.75 (4EUR)Zheng won first set 6-2.
Lay Zheng@1.30 (4 EUR)

Pironkova won 2nd set 6-4 & 3rd set 7-6.
Profit/Loss: +8.00 EUR



BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

15.00 - Querrey - Verdasco (ATP, Paris), Back Querrey@1.65 (10EUR)
Querrey won first set 6-1 and Verdasco retired at 1-1 in 2nd set.
Profit/Loss: +6.50 EUR


Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 12/31 (level 5), +60.76 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 11/31 (level 2), -9.00 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 17/31 (always same level), +91.52 EUR

Overall: +143.28 EUR

29. 10. 12

Paris masters

Heeey. One of my favourite tournaments has started today. Not a great pack of games, but there is plenty of value all around so, I really should profit something in the end. Picks:

LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET
STAKE: 8 EUR (level 3)

12.00 - Seppi - Klizan (ATP, Paris), Lay Seppi@1.53 (8EUR)

Seppi won 1st set 6-2.
Lay Seppi@1.11 (8 EUR)
Klizan won 2nd set 6-2 and Seppi won 3rd 7-6.

Profit/Loss: -5.12 EUR

PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 2 EUR (level 1)

14.00 - F. Mayer - Falla (ATP, Paris), Back Mayer@1.72 (2EUR)
Falla won 1st set 7-6.
Lay Falla@1.50 (2 EUR)
Falla won 2nd set 6-2.
Profit/Loss: -2.50 EUR


BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

13.30 - Janowicz - Kohlschreiber (ATP, Paris), Back Janowicz@2.54 (10EUR)
Janowicz won 1st 7-6 & 2nd set 6-4.
Profit/Loss: +15.40 EUR
Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 12/30 (level 4), +71.00 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 10/30 (level 2), -17.00 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 16/30 (always same level), +85.02 EUR

Overall: +139.02 EUR


27. 10. 12

Bad day again

Hello. Pretty bad day with the picks yesterday, as all 3 went wrong, without anyone going into 3rd sets. Well, those things are just part of this job. Trading went well again. Quite some matches today, as we have qualifying matches for Masters in Paris already on Betfair, so these are pretty much gold-mine for trading, but unfortunately I'm having (last of the season) a soccer game and then we have party to end the season. See you on sunday.

LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET

STAKE: 4 EUR (level 2)

14.30 - Gasquet - Del Potro (ATP, Basel), Lay Del Potro@1.51 (4EUR)

Del Potro won first set 6-2.
Lay Del Potro@1.18 (4 EUR)
Del Potro won 2nd set 6-2.

Profit/Loss: -2.76 EUR


PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 8 EUR (level 3)

16.00 - Becker - Kubot (ATP, Paris), Back Becker@2.20 (8EUR)
Becker won first set 6-4 & 2nd 7-6.
Profit/Loss: +9.60 EUR

BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

15.50 - Sharapova - Azarenka (WTA, Istanbul), Back Sharapova@2.80 (10EUR)
Sharapova won 6-4, 6-2.Profit/Loss: +18.00 EUR
Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 12/29 (level 3), +76.12 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 10/29 (level 1), -14.50 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 15/29 (always same level), +69.62 EUR

Overall: +131.24 EUR


26. 10. 12

QF day

Excellent day yesterday, also not bad on trading part. A bit tougher picks today, but I guess at least one should be right.


LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET

STAKE: 2 EUR (level 1)

15.40 - Almagro - Ferrer (ATP, Valencia), Lay Ferrer@1.37 (2EUR)

Ferrer won first set 6-3.LAY Ferrer@1.12 (2 EUR)
Ferrer won 2nd set 7-5.

Profit/Loss: -0.96 EUR



PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 4 EUR (level 2)

18.00 - Dimitrov - Mathieu (ATP, Basel), Back Dimitrov@1.65 (4EUR)
Mathieu won first set 7-6.
LAY Mathieu@1.50 (4 EUR)

Mathieu won 2nd set 7-6.

Profit/Loss: -6.00 EUR

BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

14.00 - Gasquet - Youzhny (ATP, Basel), Back Youzhny@2.22 (10EUR)
Gasquet won first set 6-2.
LAY Gasquet@1.20 (10 EUR)
Gasquet won 2nd set 7-6.

Profit/Loss: -12.00 EUR

Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 12/28 (level 2), +78.88 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 9/28 (level 3), -24.10 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 15/28 (always same level), +51.62 EUR

Overall: +106.40 EUR



25. 10. 12

Sun after rain

Hello.

After I lost all 3 picks day before, I hit all 3 winners today, with jackpot winner on Paire. Very good day at trading too. Today we have a great number of good matches to trade, I expect high profit again.

LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET
STAKE: 2 EUR (level 1)

18.30 - Stosur - Eranni (WTA, Istanbul), Lay Stosur@1.50 (2EUR)

Errani won first set 6-3.
Stosur won 2nd set 6-2.
Errani won 3rd set 6-0.

Profit/Loss: +2.00 EUR



PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 2 EUR (level 1)

17.15 - Azarenka - S. Williams (WTA, Istanbul), Back Azarenka@2.70 (2EUR)
Williams won first set 6-4eppi won first set 6-4.
LAY Williams@1.20 (2 EUR)
Williams won 2nd set 6-4.

Profit/Loss: -2.20 EUR

BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

20.00 - Querrey - Almagro (ATP, Valencia), Back Almagro@2.08 (10EUR)
Almagro won first set 6-4.

Querrey won 2nd set 7-6.
Almagro won 3rd set 6-0.
Profit/Loss: +10.80 EUR

Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 12/27 (level 1), +79.84 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 9/27 (level 1), -18.10 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 15/27 (always same level), +63.62 EUR

Overall: +125.36 EUR

24. 10. 12

Day of the retirements

 Well, bloody hell, two of my picks (and also trades) were void with potential nice profits as Tsonga (was 3-1 down in 1st set) and Tipsarevic (5-4 down in 1st) both retired before finishing 1st set. Very sad and unlucky, considering i was fucked previous week by 3 injured girls who didn't want to stop playing... As my progressive value favorite pick at level 5 (Ebden) was a winner i'll add today just low-lay bet and bet of the day.


LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET
STAKE: 8 EUR (level 3)

14.00 - Seppi - Paire (ATP, Basel), Lay Seppi@1.45 (8EUR)

Seppi won first set 6-4.
LAY Seppi@1.15 (8 EUR)
Paire won 2nd set 6-2 and 3rd 6-3.

Profit/Loss: +16.00 EUR



BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

16.40 - Dimitrov - Benneteau (ATP, Basel), Back Dimitrov@1.96 (10EUR)
SDimitrov won first set 7-6.
Benneteau won 2nd set 7-6.Dimitrov won 3rd set 7-6.
Profit/Loss: +9.60 EUR
Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 11/26 (level 1), +77.84 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 9/26 (level 1), -15.90 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 14/26 (always same level), +52.82 EUR

Overall: +114.76 EUR

23. 10. 12

Mini catastrophy

Hi there.

It has been long since all 3 of my picks went wrong, but it was expected it will happen at some point. Trading was pretty mediocre too, so I'm hoping for a better day today. Today also starts WTA Championship in Istanbull.

LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET
STAKE: 8 EUR (level 3)

17.00 - Tsonga - Malisse (ATP, Valencia), Lay Tsonga@1.31 (8EUR)

Tsonga retired in 1st set. BETS VOID.

PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 32 EUR (level 5)

14.00 - Ebden - Hanescu (ATP, Basel), Back Ebden@2.16 (32EUR)
Ebden won first set 6-3 and 2nd set 7-6.
Profit/Loss: +37.12 EUR

BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

18.20 - Simon - Tipsarevic (ATP, Valencia), Back Simon@1.96 (10EUR)
Tipsarevic retired in 1st set. BETS VOID. 
Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 10/25 (level 3), +61.84 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 9/26 (level 1), -15.90 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 13/25 (always same level), +43.22 EUR

Overall: +89.16 EUR