Davis Cup day 2

Hi there.

The result stands on 1:1 as both favourites (Ferrer and Berdych) provided their nation a point. Ferrer was always in control vs Stepanek and won in the end by 3:0 and with significantly better game then Czech veteran. On the other hand, Berdych had a lots of problems vs Almagro, who really played on top level, but was unfortunately broken twice in the deciding (5th set) and therefor lost the match 3:2.

Today there are only doubles: as predicted Minar/Rosol have been replaced by Stepanek/Berdych and will play vs WTF London winners Granollers/M.Lopez. Oddly favourites here are Stepanek and Berdych, but I favour more the experienced duo Grano and Lopez. Odds are currently at 1.68 for a win for Stepanek/Berdych and I'll be looking for a quick lay of that as I see very tight match where considering the surface is ultra fast the value is more on home pair, but not at starting odds.

Davis Cup

Hello there. It was only about a week without tennis and I'm already missing it. In next 3 days we will have Davis Cup finals where Czech will play vs Spain. I won't be doing picks just for Davis cup, but I'll write some thoughts about it.

Home team are Czechs with Berdych and Stepanek in singles (Rosol is substitution) and probably Berdych/Stepanek in doubles even thou Minar and Rosol are officially listed for doubles, but I really doubt Stepanek will not play doubles. Spain is playing with Ferrer and Almagro in singles (F. Lopez is very angry that he wasn't been choosen) and M. Lopez & Granollers in doubles. (winners at WTF in doubles in London).  Czechs have choosen very fast indoor hard court in Prague as they see their chance in fast surface (both Stepanek and Berdych prefer fast courts).

Bookies have Czechs as the favourites, but It will be a tough competition and I definitely don't see Czech the favourites just because they are hosts and with Spain as the last years winners.

The day starts at 16.00 with a clash of Stepanek vs Ferrer and then followed at 18.00 with Berdych vs Almagro.

Both favourites (Ferrer@1.19 and Berdych@1.17) look waaay to low considering the importance of the matches and that it's 5-sets match. I believe Stepanek will want to have a better start then Ferrer as I don't see him sneaking the win by getting from behind. So, a lay from the start should be quite efficient as 1st set might go into Stepanek's favour and then he can be carried on on the waves of the home crowd. In reality i more likely see Ferrer getting back after losing first set and getting win at the at 3-1 or even 3-2 for Ferrer. <

Berdych and Almagro had some nasty stuff in their recent H2H matches and this game will definitely not be a friendly match. I see tight sets (some tie-breaks too) in this match but eventually Berdych will win it, but Almagro will be certainly up for it, as he doesn't want to disappoint media as Feliciano Lopez is very angry that Almagro was choosen to play instead of him. If that was the right decision from Alex Corretja we will see today, but Almagro will try to prove that he was the right choice. Berdych to win 3-1 or 3-0 in tight sets, but Berdych will definitely trade higher then starting 1.15.

BTW: I'm also working on my new page which will see the light of the day somewhere in the middle of December with a massive over -50% discount offer for new members. Check my blog for some new info about that or drop me an e-mail to mitja.gruber@gmail.com

Having a rest

Hey there. I'll be having a rest with my picks for the beginning of the season, since there are not enough matches per day to be able to do at least 3 normal picks per day. I was thinking about joining two days together, but still too hard and risky to do 3 picks with 4 matches. I'll be still trading, so I'm waiting for higher prices on Murray, Djokovic and Federer on their first matches, else I'm not getting involved. And maybe I'll start with a small back on Del Potro (but probably not,as he's not a quick starter) vs Ferrer.

Finals

It's been another pretty average day on the picks, but better on trading side, as I recovered all of my losses from the day before. Tonights picks are short of value, as there aren't many games on and I need to chose from what we have... 

LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET
STAKE: 16 EUR (level 4)

11.00 - Ivanovic - Kvitova (WTA, Fed Cup, Prague), Lay Kvitova@1.30 (16EUR)
Ivanovic won 6-3, 7-5.
Profit/Loss: +16.00 EUR
PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 2 EUR (level 1)

 12.15 - Safarova - Jankovic (WTA, Fed Cup, Prague), Back Safarova@1.70 (2EUR)
Safarova won 6-1 and 6-1.
Profit/Loss: +1.40 EUR

BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

15.00 - Ferrer- Janowicz (ATP, Paris), Back Ferrer@1.48 (10EUR)
Ferrer won 1st set 6-4 and 2nd 6-4.
Profit/Loss: +4.80 EUR

Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 14/36 (level 1), +101.18 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 13/36 (level 1), -2.30 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 19/36 (always same level), +89.32 EUR
Overall: +188.20 EUR

Whoopi

I somehow erradicted this post, so I'll put it back from the memory...
 
LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET
STAKE: 8 EUR (level 3)

17.00 - Llodra - Ferrer (ATP, Paris), Lay Ferrer@1.46 (8EUR)
Ferrer won 1st 7-5.
Lay Ferrer@1.15 (8 EUR)
Ferrer won 2nd set 6-3.
Profit/Loss: -4.88 EUR

PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 4 EUR (level 2)

12.15 - Safarova - Ivanovic (WTA, Fed Cup, Prague), Back Safarova@2.44 (4EUR)
Safarova won 6-4, 6-3.
Profit/Loss: +5.76 EUR

BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

17.00 - Petrova - Vinci (WTA, Sofia), Back Vinci@1.94 (10EUR)Vinci won 1st set 7-6.
Petrova won 2nd set 6-4 and 3rd 6-3.
Profit/Loss: -10.00 EUR

Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 13/35 (level 3), +85.18 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 12/35 (level 1), -3.70 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 18/35 (always same level), +84.52 EUR
Overall: +166.00 EUR

Big guns day

Hi. Mediocre day on picks, but wonderful on trading side. Today we have QF's in Paris with some great odds (if you get them right) and last round of round-robin in Sofia. Here are the picks:

LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET
STAKE: 4 EUR (level 2)

17.15 - Petrova - Pironkova (WTA, Sofia), Lay Petrova@1.35 (4EUR)
Pironkova won 1st set 7-5.
Petrova won 2nd set 6-1 and 3rd set 6-3.
Profit/Loss: -1.40 EUR

PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 2 EUR (level 1)

20.30 - Llodra - Querrey (ATP, Paris), Back Querrey@1.86 (2EUR)
Llodra won 1st set 7-6.
Lay Llodra@1.38 (2 EUR)
Llodra won 2nd set 6-3.
Profit/Loss: -2.76 EUR

BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

19.00 - Hsieh - Hantuchova (WTA, Sofia), Back Hantuchova@1.55 (10EUR)
Hsieh won 1st set 6-1.
Lay Hsieh@1.30 (10 EUR)
Hantuchova won 2nd set 6-0.
Lay Hantuchova@1.55 (10 EUR)
Hsieh won 3rd set 6-3.
Profit/Loss: -3.00 EUR
Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 13/34 (level 3), +90.06 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 11/33 (level 2), -9.46 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 18/33 (always same level), +94.52 EUR
Overall: +175.12 EUR

Wonderfull month

Well, as you can see from the stats, it was another incredible day on the picks, as level 5 was a nice winner. Trading was ok too, even thou it was a hard day in the office. Here are todays picks:

LOW-LAY PROGRESSIVE BET
STAKE: 2 EUR (level 1)

20.30 - Wawrinka - Ferrer (ATP, Paris), Lay Ferrer@1.51 (2EUR)
Ferrer won 1st set 6-2.
Lay Ferrer@1.15 (2 EUR)
Wawrinka won 2nd set 6-4.
Ferrer won 3rd set 6-2.
Profit/Loss: -1.30 EUR

PROGRESSIVE VALUE FAVOURITE PICK
STAKE: 4 EUR (level 2)

16.50 - Raonic - Querrey (ATP, Paris), Back Querrey@2.24 (4EUR)
Querrey won first set 6-3 and 2nd 7-6.
Profit/Loss: +4.96 EUR
BET OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL VALUE
Stake: 10 EUR

14.50 - Kirilenko - Petrova (WTA, Sofia), Back Kirilenko@1.87 (10EUR)
Kirilenko won first set 6-3. 
Petrova won 2nd set 7-6 and 3rd 6-3.
Profit/Loss: -10.00 EUR

Stats:
Low-lay progressive bets: 13/33 (level 2), +91.46 EUR
Progressive value favourite: 11/32 (level 2), -6.70 EUR
Bet of the day with add. value: 18/32 (always same level), +97.52 EUR
Overall: +182.28 EUR