Last day of the month

Hello.

It's the last day of the month, even thou, some people were thinking that we are already in March. Yesterday started badly with 1 winner and 5 losers, but then I added further 4 matches, where 3 were winners and one void, so it was a losing day, but not anything drastical. I hope we will recover that today:

10.30 - Pliskova/Pliskova - Martic/Mladenovic (WTA, Kuala Lumpur), Pliskova/Pliskova to win@2.35, Pliskova/Pliskova 6-4, 6-3. WIN.
11.00 - Murray- Chiudinelli (ATP, Dubai), Chiudinelli+6games@2.18, Murray 6-3, 6-4. WIN.
13.00 - Youzhny - Fish (ATP, Dubai), Youzhny+2.5games@1.94, Youzhny 6-2, 7-6. WIN.
16.00 - Federer- Lopez (ATP, Dubai), Federer-4.5games@1.88, Federer 7-5, 6-3. WIN.

Will add matches later.

Sleeping to long shortens the value

Hello.

I made just 3 picks yesterday, and when I saw 2 won and 1 was lost I didn't even bother to do others, because main goal is reached when I have 1 win more then lose. I missed some great value picks early in the morning today, but there is still some left. Here is what I'll go with today. Expect detailed stats at the end of February.

16.30 - Mahut - Lopez (ATP, Dubai), Mahut+3games@1.91, Lopez 6-4, 6-4. LOST.
18.00 - Simon - Berlocq (ATP, Acapulco), Simon to win@2.35, Berlocq 7-6, 6-3. LOST.
18.00 - Soler-Espinosa - Vinci (WTA, Acapulco), Soler-Espinosa+4games@2.02, Vinci 6-2, 7-6. LOST.
19.00 - Larsson - Karantantcheva (WTA, Acapulco), Karantantcheva to win@2.00, Larsson 1-6, 6-4, 6-4. LOST.
19.00 - Darcis - Troicki (ATP, Delray beach), Darcis+3games@1.96, Darcis 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. WIN.
19.00 - Čilič - Nieminen (ATP, Delray beach), Čilič to win@2.33, Nieminen 6-3, 3-6, 6-2. LOST.
22.00 - Ferrero - Wawrinka (ATP, Acapulco), Ferrero+1.5sets@1.70, Wawrinka 2-6, 6-3, 6-4. WIN.
22.30 - Gallovits-Hall - Arn (WTA, Acapulco), Over 21games@2.00, Gallovits-Hall, 7-5, 7-5. WIN.
22.30 - Karlovic - Matosevic (ATP, Delray beach), Matosevic+3.5games@1.85, Matosevic 6-3, 6-4. WIN.
00.00 - Parra-Santonja - Pennetta (WTA, Acapulco), Parra-Santonja+6games@1.81, Penneta 6-4, 6-2. VOID.

I will add picks around 19.00 GMT.

Next week

Hello.

And we are already in next week. Those of you that are reading my picks have seen, that I have not wrote anything on sunday and saturday, the reason behind this is, that I had just simply took a small, well deserved and needed break. Today we start with 3 tournaments: 1 WTA (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, hard court) and 3 ATP (Dubai, UAE, hard court, Delray beach, USA, hard court and Acapulco, Mexico, clay). Not a lot of value tonight, I have gone throughout the whole matches, but the value is very slim... I'll be rather watching some games, so the 2nd round will be easier to decide. But here are some picks, I'll go with:

17.00 - Krajicek - Monroe (ATP, Delray beach), Over 22.5games@1.83, 3-6, 7-6, 6-3. WIN.
20.30 - Sweeting - Young (ATP, Delray beach), Over 22.5games@2.02, Sweeting 6-1, 6-1. LOST.
2-FOLD - Dokic, Matosevic to win@2.17, WIN.

I may add some picks for matches that will be played over night...

Semi and quarter finals today

Hello.

5 winners, 4 losers yesterday, so again small profit. We have some semi finals and quarters today. I will leave out most of the early matches, as I wasn't able to find a value. So, here are some for now:

17.00 - Arvidsson - Brianti (WTA, Memphis), Brianti to win@2.35, Arvidsson 6-3, 7-5. LOST.
18.30 - Del Potro - Gasquet (ATP, Marseille), Del Potro2-0@2.19, Del Potro 7-5, 7-6. WIN.
19.00 - Erakovic - Dushevina (WTA. Memphis), Erakovic to win@1.91, Erakovic 6-1, 4-6, 6-4. WIN.
20.30 - Ljubicic - Tipsarevic (ATP, Marseille), Over 22games@1.87, Tipsarevic 6-4, 6-4. LOST.
21.00 - Querrey - Stepanek (ATP, Memphis), Over 23.5games@2.15, Stepanek 7-6, 6-0. LOST.
02.00 - Rochus - Raonic (ATP, Memphis), Rochus+4.5games@1.91, Raonic 6-3, 7-6. WIN.
04.00 - Becker - Kubot (ATP, Memphis), Becker to win@2.09, Becker 7-5, 7-6. WIN.

I may add Monterrey and Memphis (ATP) matches later on.

Going up and up

Very good day behind us with 5 winners and 2 loses. I'm feeling a bit sick today, maybe that will affect my todays picks, but I hope not. But anyway, If I'll be bad today, I'll just blame it on sickness, hehe.

14.30 - Hajek - Haider-Maurer (CH, Meknes), Hajek to win@2.11, Hajek 6-2, 4-1. WIN.
18.00 - Hantuchova - Georges (WTA, Dubai), Hantuchova to win@1.87, Georges 4-6, 6-3, 6-4. LOST.
18.00 - Simon - Berlocq (ATP, Buenos Aires), Simon to win@1.87, Berlocq 6-2, 6-1. LOST.
19.30 - Arvidsson - Tsurenko (WTA, Memphis), Arvidsson to win@1.80, Arvidsson 6-3, 7-6. WIN.
22.00 - Abramovic - Arn (WTA, Monterrey), Abramovic+1.5sets@2.50, Arn 6-4, 6-2. LOST.
22.00 - Querrey- Anderson (ATP, Memphis), Anderson-3games@1.99, Querrey 7-6, 6-4. LOST.
22.30 - Stepanek - Sweeting (ATP, Memphis), Sweeting+3.5games@1.90, Stepanek 4-6, 6-3, 7-6. WIN.
00.30 - Becker - Mallise (ATP, Memphis), Becker to win@2.33, Becker 7-6, 6-4. WIN.
04.00 - Babos - Cirstea (WTA, Monterrey), Babos+1.5sets@2.04, Babos 4-6, 6-4, 6-2. WIN.

If things will look ok, I'll add some matches which will be played over midnight...

Finding value

Hello there.

As any of you that are reading my picks daily can see, it's obvious that I'm always going for value bets. I know I did some mistakes from the start (that's why the results weren't the best), but last week or two, I'm improving greatly, as I don't even bother for going for a bet which doesn't have value. I try to watch as much games as possible, because recent form and attitude on court is everything that you need to get your value, because I frankly doubt, that bookies have the same knowledge of players current strenght then I do. Yesterday It was another win day with 5 winners and 3 losts. Let us hope I continue with profits today too. In case if anyone of you wants you to add their blog on mine I would be glad to, just drop me a comment or e-mail me.

12.30 J. Pospisil - Sousa (CH, Meknes) - Souza2-0@2.95, Sousa 6-3, 6-4. WIN.
13.00 - Hantuchova - Peng (WTA, Dubai), Peng to win@2.25, Hantuchova 7-5, 6-2. LOST.
13.00 - Ivanovic - Kirilenko (WTA, Dubai), Over 20games@1.96, Ivanovic 6-2, 7-6. WIN.
13.00 - Benesova - Lisicki (WTA, Dubai), Benesova to win@2.25, Lisicki 6-3, 6-3. LOST.
17.00 - Kubot - Levine (ATP, Memphis), Kubot to win@2.05, Kubot 7-6, 6-3. WIN.
20.30 - Brianti - Pervak (WTA, Memphis), Brianti+1.5sets@2.08, Brianti 7-6, 6-2. WIN.
0.00 - Vinci - Bratchikova (WTA, Monterrey), Bratchikova+1.5sets@2.11, Bratchikova 7-5, 7-5. WIN.

That is final for today.

And a losing day has came

Hello.

Late post, since I was involved in some heavy drinking yesterday. Things were looking rosy when I last seen the results yesterday (Riba was 5-2 up in 1st set and Pivovarova was break ahead in 2nd set), but things turned around very badly. So I hit 5 losers and 4 winners... I did some picks early in the morning others are here:

10.30 - Benesova - Cibulkova (WTA, Dubai), Benesova-1.5games@1.95, Cibulkova retired, VOID.
12.00 - Mannarino - Goffin (ATP, Marseille), Mannarino to win@1.95, Mannarino retired in 2nd set. LOST.
14.30 - Halep - Pavlyuchenkova (WTA, Dubai), Halep-2.5games@1.93, Halep 6-4, 6-2. WIN.
19.00 - Dushevina - Hampton (WTA. Memphis), Hampton to win@2.20, Dushevina 6-4, 6-3. LOST.
20.30 - Mathieu - K.Beck (ATP, Marseille), Beck+1.5sets@1.97, 7-6, 2-6, 6-3. WIN.
20.30 - Blake - Sweeting (ATP, Memphis), Sweeting to win@2.13, Sweeting 6-0, 6-2. WIN.
20.30 - Parmentier - Hlavackova (WTA, Memphis), Parmentier to win@1.91, Parmentier 6-4, 4-6, 6-2. WIN.
22.30 - Erakovic - Rodina (WTA, Memphis), Rodina to win@2.63, Erakovic 6-3, 6-4. LOST.
4-FOLD - Andreev, Gasquet, Nalbandian, Simon to win@2.35, WIN.

I'll maybe add some matches later...

On a 3 day winning streak

Good morning everyone. I'm currently on 3 day winning streak now. Of course, the ideally I would like to continue to go on like that, but I know that bad day will come sooner or later, but, let us hope not just today.
Here are todays picks:

10.15 - Halep - Rus (WTA, Dubai), Under 19.5games@1.72, Halep 6-2, 6-2. WIN.
11.00 - Hercog - Wozniak (WTA, Dubai), Hercog to win@2.20, Wozniak 6-7, 7-6, 6-3 LOST.
12.00 - Olivetti - Jouan (ATP, Marseille), Olivetti to win@2.10, Olivetti 6-4, 3-6, 7-6. WIN.
13.00 - Garrigues - Pennetta (WTA, Dubai), Garrigues+3.5@2.06, Pennetta 6-3, 6-3. LOST.
15.30 - Ljubicic - Serra (ATP, Marseille), Serra to win@2.70, Ljubičič 6-3, 6-7, 6-3. LOST.
16.00 - Odesnik- Del Bonis (ATP, Buenos Aires), Del Bonis to win@2.20, Del Bonis 6-3, 6-7, 6-2. WIN.
17.00 - Krajicek - Baltacha (WTA, Memphis), Krajicek to win@2.60, Krajiček 6-2, 6-1. WIN.
18.00 - Riba-Madrid - Berlocq (ATP, Buenos Aires), Riba-Madrid+5.5games@2.07, Berlocq 6-7, 6-0, 6-0. LOST.
20.00 - Pivovarova - Bratchikova (WTA, Monterrey), Pivovarova+1.5sets@1.95, Bratchikova 6-3, 6-1. LOST.
23.30 - Ferrero - Nishikori (ATP, Buenos Aires), Ferrero to win@1.81, Nishikori 7-5, 3-6, 6-2. LOST.

Ok, this is everything for today...

Is bad day coming?

Good morning. Great day behind us with 8 winners and just 3 losers and with 1 match rescheduled for today (Paszek-Rodionova), so whatever the outcome of that one, I will be very satisfied. Not a lot of matches on today, but still some decent ones where I see value. I'll start with one match, and I'll add further ones around 9.00 GMT.

7.30 - Morita - DellAcqua (WTA, Dubai), DelAcqua to win@2.10, DellAcqua 6-0, 6-3. WIN.
14.00 - Del Potro - Federer (ATP, Rotterdam), Del Potro to win@2.38, Federer 6-1, 6-4. LOST.
14.30 - Renavand - Bautista-Agut (ATP, Marseille), Renevand to win@3.38, Bautista-Agut 6-4, 6-7, 6-3. LOST.
15.00 - Dutra Silva - Schwank (ATP, Buenos Aires), Dutra Silva to win@2.40, Dutra Da Silva 6-7, 6-4, 6-3. WIN.
16.00 - Azarenka - Stosur (WTA, Doha), Azarenka-4 games@1.71, Azarenka 6-1, 6-2. WIN.
18.00 - Souza - Capdeville (ATP, Buenos Aires), Capdeville to win@2.00, Capdeville 6-4, 6-2. WIN.
18.15 - Zverev - Levine (ATP, Memphis), Zverev to win@2.25, Levine 2-6, 6-3, 7-5. LOST.

I'll add some picks after 18.00 GMT for matches in Monterrey (WTA).

Australia v India CB Series ODI

Taken a look at the stats ahead of this match with a focus on the Brisbane ground.

The average opening in a ODI played there (this century) is 235 with a low of 115 and high of 294.

So I'll take 235 as par for the opening side today.

Interestingly the average opening score from which Australia win is 199 so even a big score can be chased down. The pitch should be good for runs, as a domestic match last week saw 285 runs almost chased down.

India have a good record against Australia at the Gabba with two wins but Australia are unbeaten there in 5 since 2008 (India).

I don't think this will change my strategy but it's good to have a ground specific data.

The series is a lot tighter than I, (and probably Australia) thought with a win separating all three sides. Australia are point behind India who top the table. In their first rain effected meeting it was all Australia as India failed to chase down 216, but in the second meeting India chased down 269 to win by a single run on the last ball.

In between, Australia have had a narrow victory and humbling (bonus point) defeat in their matches with Sri Lanka who've also lost and drawn with India which it makes it really hard to pick a winner.

The bookies have Australia as 1.66 favourites which feels too short but it all depends on  which Australia turns up.

India seem to be finding their form as Australia lose theirs and for me India's 'captain cool' just has the edge over Ponting's men.

Hopefully this will be close.

A lot of matches on today

Profitable day yesterday, not as I wanted, but it's ok. A lots of matches today, as qualifications rounds for several tournaments start. I'll go for a lot of matches with goal 1 more win then loss. Let us go then:

11.00 Vesnina - Daniilidou (WTA, Dubai) - Daniilidou to win@2.25, Daniilidou 6-4, 6-3. WIN.
12.00 - Rodionova - Paszek (WTA, Dubai) - Paszek to win@2.10, Rodionova 6-4, 6-4. LOST.
14.00 - Del Potro - Berdych (ATP, Rotterdam), Del Potro to win 1st set@2.15, Del Potro 6-3, 6-1. WIN.
16.30 - Babos - Panova (WTA, Bogota), Babos to win@1.94, Panova 6-2, 6-3. LOST.
17.00 - Almagro - Ramos (ATP, Sao Paolo), Under 21games@1.79, Almagro 6-4, 7-6. LOST.
17.00 - Fink - Ferrer-Suarez (WTA, Monterrey), Ferrer-Suarez to win@1.72, Ferrer-Suarez 7-5, 6-3. WIN.
17.00 - Malek - Muguruza (WTA, Monterrey), Muguruza to win@1.85, Malek 6-2, 6-4. LOST.
17.30 - Azarenka - Radwanska (WTA, Doha), Azarenka-4games@1.71, Azarenka 6-4, 6-2. WIN.
18.30 - Pospisil - Zverev (ATP, Memphis), Zverev to win@2.38, Zverev 7-5, 6-3. WIN.
19.00 - Belucci - Volandri (ATP, Sao Paolo), Volandri+1.5sets@1.79, Volandri 5-7, 6-0, 6-2. WIN.
21.30 - Kamke -Kudla (ATP, Memphis), Kudla to win@2.50, Kudla 6-1, 6-4. WIN.
21.30 - Kendrick - Ward (ATP, Memphis), Kendrick to win@2.10, Kendrick 6-7, 6-1, 6-3. WIN.

Slight chance I'll add some picks of matches which they will be played over the midnight.

Friday's picks

Profitable day yesterday. Not much, but still better then losing day. I have a very good feeling about todays picks. Here they are:

13.00 - Seppi - Berdych (ATP, Rotterdam), Seppi+5.5games@1.74, Berdych 6-3, 6-4. WIN.
13.30 - Stosur - Niculescu (WTA, Doha), Stosur2-0@1.95, Stosur 6-2, 2-6, 6-3. LOST.
14.15 - Flipkens - Cepelova (ITF, Rabat), Flipkens to win@2.10, Flipkens 2-0. WIN.
14.30 - Troicki - Del Potro (ATP, Rotterdam), Troicki+4games@2.02, Del Potro 6-0, 6-1. LOST.
15.30 - Azarenka - Wickmayer (WTA, Doha), Azarenka-6.5games@2.15, Azarenka 6-0, 6-4. WIN.
16.00 - Shvedova - Babos (WTA, Bogota), Babos to win@2.63, Babos 6-4, 6-4. WIN.
17.00 - Verdasco - Ramos (ATP, Sao Paolo), Ramos to win@2.35, Ramos 7-6, 6-3. WIN.
17.00 - Bartoli - Safarova (WTA, Doha), Safarova to win@2.70, Bartoli 7-5, 3-6, 6-1. LOST.
19.00 - Radwanska - McHale (WTA, Doha), McHale+6 games@2.20, Radwanska 6-1, 6-1. LOST.

Rugby League Hcap Trade

I'm keeping an eye on the televised rugby tonight (Manly v Leeds). I played a number of successful hcap lazyman trades last week and I'm looking to repeat that. Liquidity will be key though I'm also concerned that the tight +/- 4.5 Hcap may keep the money in the match odds market.

Currently £3.5k matched. If that can get to £50k then a trade @1.76 will be the order of the day for me.

Welsh Open Snooker

Yesterday I made a mistake in trying to force the Lazyman trade in two matches. I read back my notes and said I wouldn't do this but I ignored my own advice and lost. The matches I picked were actually very close. Stevens was just 1 shot away from forcing a decider and a winning trade and Tom Ford threw away plenty of chances to put Lee under pressure. The problem here was the format, 4 frames is just not enough time to recover a trade if a player takes a 2-0 lead as was the case in both these matches. I shall not be trading these matches in the future with this strategy.

Today is much better and I can see the Lazyman working well in the two lunchtime sessions.

13:30 - Ronnie O’Sullivan 2.02 v Judd Trump 1.96 - H2H 3-4

The bookies are split on this one with half putting Ronnie as fav and a -1.5 hcap. The others have Judd as fav with a -1.5 hcap. I think Judd's the man to win this after destroying Bingham yesterday and he's in with a real chance of lifting the title.

Trade

Lays @1.76 on both. (Full-fat stakes)

13:30 - Shaun Murphy 1.99 v Mark Allen 2.00 - H2H 5-2

Another split opinion from the bookies on the -1.5 hcap line. The head to heads are in Murphy's favour and he won their last meeting in a decider.  I'm hoping it will be close again. Allen is in probably the better form of the two and I fancy him to edge it.

Trade

Lays @1.76 on both. (Full-fat stakes)

19:00 - Stephen Maguire1.98  v Mark Selby 1.98

Looking at the odds this looks like a layzman trade BUT for me it seems risky. I refer to my note from yesterday - 'note to self - Maguire outside bet for world championships'. Selby is not carrying the mantle of World #1 with any ease and the quicker he losses the top spot the quicker he'll return to form. Maguire on the other hand is in rude form and if he can just become a little more clinical in his finishing he could be a world beater.

Trade

Lays @1.76 on both. (Low-fat stakes)

16 february

Good morning. Not a pleasant day yesterday with 6 winners and 8 losers. I'm applying some new formulas to betting the games, I hope it will work.

11.00 - Kohlschreiber - Seppi (ATP, Rotterdam), Kohlschreiber 2-0@2.53, Seppi 6-4, 6-2. LOST.
12.00 - Soeda - Ignatik (CH, Bergamo), Soeda 2-0@1.85, Ignatik 6-1, 7-5. LOST.
13.30 - Radwanska - Lepchenko (WTA, Doha), Lepchenko+7games@2.08, Radwanska 7-5, 6-1. VOID.
14.30 - Baghdatis - Berdych (ATP, Rotterdam), Baghdatis+4games@1.85, Baghdatis retired. VOID.
15.00 - Andreev - Ramos (ATP, Sao Paolo), Andreev to win@2.55, Ramos 7-6, 7-6. LOST.
15.00 - Volandri - Ramirez-Hidalgo (ATP, Sao Paolo), Volandri to win@1.76, Volandri 6-4, 1-6, 6-3. WIN.
15.30 - Niculescu - Bondarenko (WTA, Doha), Niculescu to win@1.76, Niculescu 7-6, 6-4. WIN.
17.00 - Starace - Berlocq (ATP, Sao Paolo), Starace to win@2.80, Berlocq 3-6, 6-3, 6-3. LOST.
17.00 - Kuznetsova - Safarova (WTA, Doha), Safarova to win@2.55, Safarova 7-6, 6-3. WIN.

17.00 - Stosur - Cetkovska (WTA, Doha), Stosur to win@1.42, Stosur 6-3, 6-2. WIN.
22.00 - Ebden - Anderson (ATP, San Jose), Ebden+3.5games@2.02, Anderson 6-1, 6-2. LOST.
00.00 - Nalbandian - Simon (ATP, Sao Paolo), Nalbandian to win@1.80, Nalbandian 6-3, 6-2. WIN.

Missed out another day

Due to personal issues I missed writting picks here, but I did them thou. I played Minella to win (lost), Hanescu to win (@2.50,win) and Muller to win(@1.80, win), so it was another profit day. Hope here comes 3rd in a row. I will at least at the end of the month post some stats.

10.30 - Soeda - Copil (CH, Bergamo) - Soeda to win@2.20, Soeda 6-4, 6-4. WIN.
13.00 - Kubot - Nieminien (ATP, Rotterdam), Kubot+1.5sets@1.72, Nieminen 6-3, 5-7, 7-6. WIN.
13.00 - Rosol - Berdych (ATP, Rotterdam), Rosol+6 games@1.85,Berdych 6-4, 6-2. VOID.
13.30 - Garrigues - Bartoli (WTA, Doha), Garrigues+5games@2.02, Bartoli 6-2, 6-0. LOST.
13.30 - Keothavong - Radwanska (WTA, Doha), Keothavong+7.5games@1.70, Radwanska 6-1, 6-2. LOST.
13.30 - Zvonareva - Niculescu (WTA, Doha), Zvonareva-3.5games@2.00, Zvonareva retired. VOID.
3-FOLD - Petzschner, Chardy, Nalbandian to win@2.54, LOST.
2-FOLD - Pennetta, Goerges to win@1.87, LOST.
15.00 - Capdeville - Starace (ATP, Sao Paolo), Capdeville to win@2.10, Starace 5-7, 7-6, 6-3. LOST.
15.30 - McHale - Peng (WTA, Doha), McHale to win@1.94, McHale 5-7, 6-3, 6-2. WIN.
17.00 - Pervak - Razzano (WTA, Doha), Pervak to win@1.70, Pervak 6-4, 6-0. WIN.
17.50 - Barthel - Azarenka (WTA, Doha), Barthel+6.5 games@1.85, Azarenka 6-1, 6-0. LOST.
18.10 - Clement - Fischer (CH, Bergamo), Clement to win@2.00, Clement 2-1. WIN.
19.00 - Cirstea - Stosur (WTA, Doha), Cirstea to win@2.65, Stosur 6-4, 7-6. LOST.
19.30 - Ferrero - Mayer (ATP, Sao Paolo), Ferrero to win@1.75, Mayer 7-6, 6-2. LOST.
21.30 - Mathieu - Davydenko (ATP, Rotterdam), Davydenko to win@1.80, Davydenko 6-4, 6-7, 6-1. WIN.


I'll add some more matches as they come.

It's a new week, 1st rounds are here

6 out of 12 yesterday, due to some bad placed bets through the end of the day. This is for today:

13.30 - Pazsek - Keothavong (WTA, Doha), Pazsek to win@2.65, Keothavong 7-6, 7-6. LOST.
13.30 - Pavlyuchenkova - Pervak (WTA, Doha), Pavyluchenkova-4.5games@2.00, Pervak 1-6, 2-6, 6-3. LOST.
14.30 - Lopez - Mathieu - (ATP, Rotterdam), Over 2.5 sets@2.35, Mathieu 2-1. WIN.
15.30 - Scheepers - McHale (WTA, Doha), McHale-2games@1.926, Mchale 6-4, 6-4. WIN.
4-FOLD - Ivanovic, Barthel, Ljubicic, Gil to win@2.56 - LOST
21.00 - Kudla - Strode (ATP, San Jose), Over 21.5 games@1.83, 6-4,6-7,6-4.WIN.
00:00 - Mello - Riba (ATP, Sao Paolo), Mello-3games@2.05 , Mello 6-4, 6-2. WIN.


I'll be adding other matches as the day goes...

Qualies day 2 and finals

I can't be exactly proud of yesterday with 7 losers and 5 winners, but it will be better today. I'll be adding some stats when I will process it. Maybe I'll play a little with stakes if the stats will show that I hit more winners on odds 1.50 to 1.70 I'll play those with double stake and those that are over 2.50 with half the stake. But I can't say for now, because i didn't analyse the stats yet.

10.00 - Hantuchova - Kirilenko (Paris, WTA), Hantuchova-3 games@1.99, Hantuchova 6-7, 6-3, 6-3. WIN.
11.00 - Beck - Hajek (ATP, Rotterdam), Beck2-0@2.50, Beck 2-1. LOST.
13.00 - Melzer- Bogomolov (Davis Cup), Melzer to win@1.45, Melzer 3-0. WIN.
13.30 - Dushevina - Barrois (WTA, Doha), Barrois to win@1.83, Dushevina 2-0. LOST.
13.30 - Garcia - Grandin (WTA, Doha), Garcia 2-0@1.61, Garcia 2-0. WIN.
15.00 - Bondarenko - DellAcqua (WTA, Doha), DellAcqua to win@1.91, Bondarenko 2-0. LOST.
15.00 - Doi - Razzano (WTA, Doha), Razzano to win@1.50, Razzano 2-0. WIN.
15.00 - Lepchenko - Chang (WTA, Doha), Lepchenko to win@2.00, Lepchenko 2-0. WIN.
15.30 - Bartoli - Kerber  (WTA, Paris), Bartoli to win@1.65, Kerber 2-1. LOST.
17.30 - Pelletier - Ferrer-Suarez (WTA, Bogota), Pelletier to win@2.5519.00, Pelletier 2-0. WIN.
19.00 - Ball - Smyczek (ATP, San Jose), Ball to win@2.00, Smyczek 2-0. LOST.
3-FOLD - Ram, Strode, Berankis (ATP, San Jose) to win@1.44, LOST.

Evening and overnight matches will be added on later.

Ending phases of WTA tournaments and qualies for next week

Decent day behind us with 4 correct, 1 void and 1 lose. A lots of matches and a lots of picks for today:

9.00 - Mladenovic - Barrois (WTA, Doha) - Mladenovic to win@2.10, Barrois 2-0. LOST.
9.00 - Wozniak - Nara (WTA, Doha) - Nara to win@2.80, Wozniak 2-0. LOST.
9.00 - Radwanska - Tsurenko (WTA, Doha) - Tsurenko to win@1.70 - VOID
10.00 - Cirstea - Kirilenko (WTA, Pattaya) - Cirstea to win@1.85, Kirilenko 2-1. LOST.
12.00 - Dushevina - Spears (WTA, Doha) - Over 19.5 games@1.83, Dushevina 6-3, 7-6. WIN.
12.00 - Beck - Meffert (ATP, Rotterdam) - Over 22.5games@1.83, Beck 7-5, 6-2. LOST.
12.00 - Hantuchova - Hsieh (WTA, Pattaya) - Hsieh+5 games@2.29, Hantuchova 6-4, 6-1. LOST.
12.00 - Berrer - Mathiu (ATP, Rotterdam), Berrer to win@1.57, Mathieu 2-0. LOST.
13.30 - Daniildou - Lepchenko (WTA, Doha) - Lepchenko to win@1.82, Lepchenko 2-0. WIN.
13.30 - Keothavong - Robson (WTA, Doha) - Keothavong to win@1.72, Keothavong 6-1, 6-1. WIN
14.30 - Zakopalova - Bartoli (WTA, Paris) - Zakopalova+1.5set@2.13, Bartolo 7-6, 6-0. LOST
14.00 - Petzschner/Haas - Schwank/Chela (Davis Cup), Petzschner/Haas to win@2.15, VOID.
15.45 - Jaziri - Donskoy (CH, Quimper) - Jaziri to win@1.65, Jaziri 2-0. WIN
16.30 - Kerber - Wickmayer (WTA, Paris), Kerber to win@1.75, Kerber 2-1. WIN.
22.00 - Reix - Kim (ATP, San Jose), Reix to win@2.20, Kim 2-1. LOST.

If needed I'll add some matches later too.

Friday

Yesterday was a bad day again, hitting just 1 out of 6 right, but It could be better, if Sands did have an injury in 3rd set and McHale was certainly close to getting a set.

Ok, two matches already finished for today, I'll post them anyway. I'll be adding matches as I done them.

5.00 - Soeda - Dodig (Davis Cup), Soeda to win@2.05, Soeda 3-2. WIN
9.00 - Hsieh - Mirza (WTA, Pattaya), Under 21 games@2.37, VOID.
11.00 - Kirilenko - Tanasugarn (WTA, Pattaya), Kirilenko-3 games@1.85, Kirilenko, 7-6, 6-1. WIN
12.30 - Hantuchova-King (WTA, Pattaya), King+4 games@1.78, Hantuchova 7-6, 6-4. WIN.
16.00 - Stepanek - Seppi (Davis Cup), Seppi to win@2.80, Stepanek 3-2. LOST.
21.00 - Wickmayer - Barthel (WTA, Paris), Over 20.5games@1.90, Wickmayer 7-5, 6-7, 6-3. WIN.

Some more female tennis

9.00 - Mirza - Keothavong (WTA, Pattaya), Keothavong to win@1.80, Mirza 2-0. LOST
11.00 - Hantuchova - Radwanska (WTA, Pattaya), over 19 games@1.95, Hantuchova 6-3, 6-2. LOST
11.00 - Hsieh - Date-Krumm (WTA, Pattaya), Hsieh to win@2.10, Hsieh 7-5, 6-0. WIN.
12.00 - Mattek-Sands - Vinci (WTA, Paris), Mattek-Sands to win@2.01, Vinci 2-1. LOST
13.00 - Zakopalova - Pironkova (WTA, Paris), Pironkova-2.5 games@1.93, Zakopalova 2-0, LOST.
21.00 - Wickmayer - McHale (WTA, Paris), McHale+1.5 sets@1.75, Wickmayer 2-0. LOST.

Some new techniques

As you can see, I'm trying some new things lately. Some new strategies on horse racing and going a bit for tennis value betting. You can also see, that my results aren't any good for the moment, but I believe they will improve. I had two winning days now, but I didn't wrote them on blog (to write them now for the past it's no use), as I was obviously too lazy. Here is what I'll play today:

11.00 - Barrois - Mattek-Sands (Paris, WTA), Barrois to win@2.24, Mattek-Sands 2-0. LOST


11.00 - Gajdosova - Niculescu (Paris, WTA), Niculescu-3.5 games@1.85, Niculescu 6-1, 4-6, 6-4. WIN

11.00 - Kirilenko - Rodionova (Pattaya, WTA), Rodionova+1.5 sets@1.85, Rodionova won 1st set. WIN

11.00 - Zvonareva - Amanmuradova (Pattaya, WTA), Amanmuradova+6.5 games@1.95, Zvonareva 6-3, 6-3, WIN.

14.30 - Lepchenko - McHale (Paris, WTA), Lepchenko+1.5 sets@1.68, McHale 6-4, 7-5. LOST.

21.00 - Goerges - Cetkovska (Paris, WTA), Cetkovska+1.5 sets@1.90

For the matches over night (Dallas, Caloundra)

Some good value bets:

2.30 - Frost - Reid (Caloundra, CH), over 21.5 games@1.80, 6-3, 6-2, LOST.
2.30 - Smith - Strode (Caloundra, CH), Strode to win@2.20, Smith 2-1. LOST
2.45 - Zverev - Ram (Dallas, CH), Zverev to win@2.37, Zverev 2-0. WIN
4.00 - Vardhan - Roshan (Calounda, CH), Roshan to win@2.62, Vardhan 6-4, 7-6, LOST.
8.00 - Kudryavsteva - Zhou (Pattaya, WTA), Zhou+1.5 set@1.96, Kudry 2-0. LOST

Quimper and Dallas CH

4 picks for today:

14.15 - Souza - Bruges-Davi (Quimper, CH)- Souza to win@2.37, Souza 2-1. WIN
18.00 - Gicquel - Meffert (Quimper, CH) - Meffert to win@2.00, Gicquel 2-1, LOST.
19.00 - Duclos - Kudla (Dallas, CH) - Kudla to win@1.53, Kudla 2-1, WIN.
19.15 - Bautista-Agut - Goffin (Quimper, CH) - Bautista-Agut to win@1.66, Bautista-Agut 2-1, WIN.

Well, finally a winning day. It was pretty needed after some bad days.

Female tennis for today

Finals are for enjoyment, so I won't be trading them neither straight betting them. Even thou I would prefer that Youzhny will win Zagreb and Monfils Montpellier, but it will be very hard for both of them, as Lacko is playing some really good tennis and Berdych is exceptional in the start of this season.

Let us start with 4-FOLD and afterwards some singles:

4-FOLD@2.64 - LOST
Kvitova to beat Lisicki@1.33 - WIN
Arn to beat Beltrame@1.30 - WIN
Bratchikova to beat Muguruza@1.25 - LOST
Barthel to beat Coin@1.22 - WIN

11.30 - Domachowska - Lepchenko (WTA, Paris, Qualifications)- Lepchenko to win @1.61, Lepchenko 2-0. WIN
Lepchenko is playing solid tennis lately, winning against over 100 ranked players and getting kicked out of tournaments against better players. Domachowska has proggressed through 1st round of qualies against Eleni Bogdan who is a really shitty player. Value also on 2-0 for Lepchenko.

12.00 - Cibulkova - Parmentier (Fed cup) - Parmentier+1.5 sets@lay 2-0 at 1.70 (BF), Cibulkova 2-0, LOST.
Cibulkova lost 1st game against Razzano, now she faces another quite similar opponnent. I believe Parmentier can take the set also from Cibulkova as she did against Hantuchova. It will be tight match anyway, as Cibulkova is not in form she used to be.

13.00 - Goerges - Benesova (Fed Cup) - Benesova to win@2.30, CANCELLED.
Benesova in very good form and Goerges is very up and downish, so I think going for the more constant player on important match is the key.

14.00 Hantuchova - Razzano (Fed cup) - Razzano+1.5sets@lay 2-0 at 1.87 (BF), CANCELLED.
Hantuchova had many problems against Parmentier, then won the game in the end. On the other hand Razzano win in straight sets against Cibulkova, so value is here to Razzano to win at least 1 set.

Somethings here and somethings there

Last 2 days I hit only 4 out 15 matches right, so it's time to get at least a profitable day. I'll be very short on arguments today, since I'm short on time.

14:00 Monfils - Simon (ATP, Montpellier), Monfils 2-0@2.16, Monfils 4-6, 7-6, 6-4. LOST
Monfils is playing great tennis, has big serves, while Simon is doing way too much mistakes for his style of play. He thou won against Rufin, but I didn't looked well in the 3rd set as he went 2-0 down... He has some minor injury problems with blisters on the hand.

14.00 Flipkens - Jankovic (Fed cup, hard), Jankovic 2-0@1.30, Jankovic 7-5, 7-5. WIN
I really don't see any weapons Flipkens has to take away set against Jankovic, except home crowd, which I believe won't be enough. Low odds, but I don't see possibily that Flipkens takes the set considering her late form.

14.00 Errani - Bondarenko (Fed cup, clay), Errani 2-0@1.67, Errani 6-3, 6-2. WIN
Players didn't found the real power to hit winners to Errani on hard, so I don't see they will on clay. She is playing at home, so some home support will lift her up too. Bondarenko is lately in a small downfall, so I see value on Errani to win in straight sets.

16.00 Berdych - Kohlschreiber (ATP, Montpellier), Over 20.5 games@1.80, Berdych 6-4, 6-3. LOST
Berdych hasn't dropped a set yet, doing great on his serve and also on receiving side. I see here only one winner and that is Berdych, but value is in Kohlscreiber making some resistance, so if it will be tight the bet will be won.

17.00 Berrer- Youzhny (ATP, Zagreb), Berrer+1.5 sets@1.77, Youzhny 6-3, 6-4. LOST
Berrer is a great achiever in Zagreb. He is nowhere,comes here and gets the final. He will be highly motivated and will definitely cause some problems to Youzhny. Until the Youzhny will wake up, he might already be set down.


14.00 - Arsenal - Blackburn (Premier league, England) Arsenal-1@1.41, Arsenal 7-1. WIN
Arsenal really need to win this, and they don't have any injury problems.

Hoping for a better day

3 out of 8 today. A close to zero day, as I have traded some of the matches to reduced the losses.

Yesterday I had 1 out 7 right, so I'll definitely need to be a bit better today:

13.15 - Bemelmans - Zopp - over 22.5 games@1.90 (CH, Kazan). Zopp 6-2, 6-0. LOST
Zopp as 1.50 favourite here because Bemelmans had a lot of matches recently and his stamina is questionable, but I feel he is the better player. Both are big servers, so it should be tight. I'll go for reasonable over 22.5 games, because I think Bemelmans will be better in 1st set then maybe tiredness will kick in, so a good chance for 3 sets.
Update: Two breaks of serve in first set for Zopp and in the 2nd set Bemelmans completely failed and was bageled. Looks like he was too tired.

14.45 - Haase - Lacko - Haase to win@2.00 (ATP, Zagreb), Lacko 6-4, 6-4. LOST
Haase plays solid tennis and Lacko won 6-0, 6-7, 6-1 against Bogomolov, who might tanked that game because of DC match. There are rumours that Lacko is having some minor injuries and if he is not 100% fit I believe value is in Haase. 

13.00 - Simon - Rufin - Simon 2-0@1.67 (ATP, Montepellier), Simon 7-6, 6-7, 6-2... LOST
People are overpraising Rufin because he won against Lopez, but Lopez was injured and not motivated to win, so that win really doesn't count. Simon will keep the ball in play where I see Rufin making more unforced errors and Rufin won't be able to keep the serve as high as he did against Lopez where he scored record number of aces for him.
Update: Simon took first set in TB, and lost second in TB, so the bet was lost. He had many chances to win 2nd set easy, he was break up, then broken back and had 2 BP's at 4-4, but didn't take it... Looks like player 200 places higher on the rank is just too good for Simon.

15.00 Berdych - Mahut - Berdych 2-0@1.50 (ATP, Montpellier), Berdych 6-4, 6-3. WIN
Berdych is in great form, his serves are doing ok and has big strokes at the baseline. Mahut will be very depended on his 1st serve, but the best he can do here is to get 1 set in TB, but will be hard, so I'm going for Berdych to win 2-0 even thou Berdych has DC match next week, I think he'll fancy his chances to win this tournament.

17.45 Karlovič - Youzhny - Over 2.5 sets@2.36 (ATP, Zagreb), Youzhny 7-6, 3-6, 7-6. WIN
This will be a tight encounter, going probably to a TB or two, since both of them are doing well on their serve. I see edge on Youzhny to win, but I'll fancy good value that Karlovič can get a set in TB. Both play DC next week, while Youzhny will probably just stay here as Russia plays DC in Austria, while Karlovič will need to flight to Japan. It's a tricky bet, but as there is a decent value I'll take it. H2H Youzhny leads 2-0, with both matches with 3 sets.

18.00 Berlocq - Del Bonis - Del Bonis+1.5 sets@1.90 (ATP, Vina de Mar), Berlocq 6-3, 7-6. LOST
Berlocq has an exceptional stats on clay, winning 17 in a row but a lot of those matches were also in 3 sets. Since he hasn't lost a set in this tournament, I think this will be good shot for young Del Bonis, who is really enjoying to play. Both are Argentinians (so at home), but I feel youngster will have more support from the crowd, so I believe he has a decent chance to take at least one set, even thou I see Berlocq as a winner, but 1.40 is just to short.

19.45 - Baghdatis - Dodig - Baghdatis to win@1.50 (ATP, Zagreb), Baghdatis 6-3, 6-4. WIN
True that Dodig is a defending champion, but he is also travelling to Japan for DC matches for Croatia. Baghdatis has nothing next week. Dodig played two very tough matches, both were long too. Baghdatis hasn't won a tournament since 2009 and is definitely seeing this as a good opportunity. He was a winner here in 2007, so he obviously likes this court and atmosphere. And regarding what they showed in previous matches i must go for Baghdatis to win this one.

21.45 - Gil - Chardy - Gil to win@2.52 (ATP, Vina del Mar), Chardy 6-3, 7-6. LOST
Just the fact that the odds should be close to evens here, I'll go for Gil, who is doing very good so far.

Again some straight bets

Update: Well, well, this really was a bad day... Definitely a better day tommorow.

Todays straight picks:

13.30 - Heliovaara - Zopp - over 21.5 games @1.80 (Kazan, CH), Zopp 6-3, 6-2. LOST
13.30 - Bemelmans - Meceiras - Bemelmans 2-0@1.83 (Kazan, CH), Bemelmans 6-3, 5-7, 7-6. LOST
14.00 - Lacko - Bogomolov - Bogomolov to win@2.12 (Zagreb, ATP),Lacko 6-0, 6-7, 6-1. LOST
14.00 - Mahut - Mayer - Mayer to win@1.71 (Montpellier, ATP), Mahut 7-6, 6-3. LOST
18.00 - Berlocq - Junqueira - Berlocq 2-1@4.50 (Vina del Mar, ATP), Berlocq 6-1, 6-0. LOST
18.00 - Del Bonis - Belucci - Del Bonis+1.5sets@1.78 (Vina del Mar,ATP), Del Bonis 6-2... WIN
17.00 - Samsunspor - Fenerbahce - under 2.5 goals@2.00 (Turkey, Super league), 3-1, LOST.

I will also trade ATP matches to reduce or extend profits.