Taken a look at the stats ahead of this match with a focus on the Brisbane ground.
The average opening in a ODI played there (this century) is 235 with a low of 115 and high of 294.
So I'll take 235 as par for the opening side today.
Interestingly the average opening score from which Australia win is 199 so even a big score can be chased down. The pitch should be good for runs, as a domestic match last week saw 285 runs almost chased down.
India have a good record against Australia at the Gabba with two wins but Australia are unbeaten there in 5 since 2008 (India).
I don't think this will change my strategy but it's good to have a ground specific data.
The series is a lot tighter than I, (and probably Australia) thought with a win separating all three sides. Australia are point behind India who top the table. In their first rain effected meeting it was all Australia as India failed to chase down 216, but in the second meeting India chased down 269 to win by a single run on the last ball.
In between, Australia have had a narrow victory and humbling (bonus point) defeat in their matches with Sri Lanka who've also lost and drawn with India which it makes it really hard to pick a winner.
The bookies have Australia as 1.66 favourites which feels too short but it all depends on which Australia turns up.
India seem to be finding their form as Australia lose theirs and for me India's 'captain cool' just has the edge over Ponting's men.
Hopefully this will be close.
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