Hello.
I'm putting my new version of my Tennis Spreadsheet out. It does have an added feature for straight betting as well now, but main priority is still the trading part of it. It's going to be free for the end of January and will cost 15 EUR (payments over Skrill) after that. If you wish to have unlimited access to it in next month and a half you'll need to send me e-mail to: mitja.gruber@gmail.com so i can add you on the list.
Here is the link for the updated & new version of Spreadsheet. Keep in mind i'm still adding some things at this moment. BTW: Spreadsheet is fully updated for tonight's tennis already.
Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oIVhYOj7wjGFgtG99emqkg9cZb3_d3_ANuA5kdJYYjI/pubhtml
14. 12. 14
5. 3. 14
Indian Wells, day 3
Hello, hello.
I didn't kept my word to write a preview about Kyoto match. I'm sorry I simply forgot. Today 1st round of WTA Indian Wells (main draw) and 2nd rounds of qualifications matches for men will commence. Plenty of matches to choose from and hopefully we'll get some video today.
I have listed exactly 16 possible trades in my spreadsheet (6 for ATP and 10 for WTA) so it's going to be a busy evening. Matches start at 20.00 (CET).
Indian Wells (WTA, hard court)
21.30 - Riske - Jovanovski (1.65/2.18) - This looks like a very good straight bet to me, to go for Riske from the start doesn't sound risky at all. A lots of value has gone away already (Pinnacle opened RIske@1.80 now she dropped to 1.63). I completely understand this kind of drop of odds, because everything is pointing towards Riske here. Of course, this is WTA and things can change drastically, but even then, i don't give Jovanovski more then 50% of chances to win. She simply isn't there at her current form, while Riske is a player who significantly increased her play this year and I believe she'll be very motivated to show that on such a prestigues event as Indian Wells. Half stake backing Riske from the start and leaving other half in case Riske will lose 1st set. RIske in 2 or 3.
Indian Wells (ATP, hard court)
20.00 - Nava - Ouellette (1.30/3.27) - Wow, Ouellette even playing in qualifications at such a strong tournament impressed me first, but then he also won vs Jimmy Wang, what a surprise. And that win for Ouellette came after disastrous end of season in November for him (lost to some Libyan, yes, Libyan kid). I was simply shocked, it was definitely the biggest upset in 1st round of qualifications. Nava had a big surprise win as well over Devvarman (but not really shocking). 31-year old Spaniard will now probably want to insure himself some money for reaching into main draw and will do his best to win here. He doesn't need to do much, as Ouellette really shouldn't be a threat. Oullette will need another surprise win (maybe his biggest achievement in his quite long career, his so far best achivement is QF's of a CH tournament). I'm willing to take that risk and i'll back Nava from the start and lay Ouellette if he wins 1st set. Putting profit on Nava when (if) he wins the set. Nava in 2.
I didn't kept my word to write a preview about Kyoto match. I'm sorry I simply forgot. Today 1st round of WTA Indian Wells (main draw) and 2nd rounds of qualifications matches for men will commence. Plenty of matches to choose from and hopefully we'll get some video today.
I have listed exactly 16 possible trades in my spreadsheet (6 for ATP and 10 for WTA) so it's going to be a busy evening. Matches start at 20.00 (CET).
Indian Wells (WTA, hard court)
21.30 - Riske - Jovanovski (1.65/2.18) - This looks like a very good straight bet to me, to go for Riske from the start doesn't sound risky at all. A lots of value has gone away already (Pinnacle opened RIske@1.80 now she dropped to 1.63). I completely understand this kind of drop of odds, because everything is pointing towards Riske here. Of course, this is WTA and things can change drastically, but even then, i don't give Jovanovski more then 50% of chances to win. She simply isn't there at her current form, while Riske is a player who significantly increased her play this year and I believe she'll be very motivated to show that on such a prestigues event as Indian Wells. Half stake backing Riske from the start and leaving other half in case Riske will lose 1st set. RIske in 2 or 3.
Indian Wells (ATP, hard court)
20.00 - Nava - Ouellette (1.30/3.27) - Wow, Ouellette even playing in qualifications at such a strong tournament impressed me first, but then he also won vs Jimmy Wang, what a surprise. And that win for Ouellette came after disastrous end of season in November for him (lost to some Libyan, yes, Libyan kid). I was simply shocked, it was definitely the biggest upset in 1st round of qualifications. Nava had a big surprise win as well over Devvarman (but not really shocking). 31-year old Spaniard will now probably want to insure himself some money for reaching into main draw and will do his best to win here. He doesn't need to do much, as Ouellette really shouldn't be a threat. Oullette will need another surprise win (maybe his biggest achievement in his quite long career, his so far best achivement is QF's of a CH tournament). I'm willing to take that risk and i'll back Nava from the start and lay Ouellette if he wins 1st set. Putting profit on Nava when (if) he wins the set. Nava in 2.
4. 3. 14
Indian Wells day 2
Hi.
Why did i start with Indian Wells day 2 instead of day 1? Well, it's simple... I simply don't do (trade) 1st round of qualifying matches so I left them alone on day 1. We have a nice collection of round 2 qualie matches for ladies tonight and 1st round for men. I'll trade 9 matches today (if it will come to my entry point) and I hope I'll improve a bad taste from the morning Kyoto session where Mr. Peng lost 12 games in a row in a match which I believed it should be 50%: 50% match, sigh...
Anyway, as you have maybe realised spreadsheet isn't available for free anymore. I'm giving it away for first 20 interested people (still about 5 places left) for 10 eur per month. If you were using it before and still haven't decided if you want to buy it or not, you actually still have the access, but I can see who (from non-buyers) is using it and who not, so be fair and give me some credit if you are you using it (I know who those people are anyway).
As always I'll add one match from main tournament in for the preview on blog, others can be find on spreadsheet. As we don't have ATP matches from IW I'll also add Kyoto CH match later on when they will put a schedule for tomorrow.
Indian Wells (WTA, hard court)
23.00 - Zanevska - Fichman (2.26/1.58) - In my opinion this should be at least 50%/50% so everything below 2.00 on Fichman will be a lay for me. It's true that Fichman had a decent week and is growing from month to month and becoming a better and improved player. But also Zanevska has lifted her game a lot lately and she is a player that can cause problems to top 50 players (6-4, 6-3 vs Jankovic, beat Barthel. Zhang, Lepchenko, Martic, ...) They played 2 times against each other and Zanevska won both matches, but both were on clay, so that doesn't tell us a lot. Zanevska is a better player to me, but she has a one big problem and that's the amount of double faults she makes. She'll definitely need to cut double faults below 10 and I see her winning a set here for sure. It could be a nice match to see. I'm laying FIchman from start and adding if Fichman will go break up or set up. Zanevska to win a set and probably match if she'll cut down silly errors (especially df's).
Kyoto (CH, indoor hard)
Why did i start with Indian Wells day 2 instead of day 1? Well, it's simple... I simply don't do (trade) 1st round of qualifying matches so I left them alone on day 1. We have a nice collection of round 2 qualie matches for ladies tonight and 1st round for men. I'll trade 9 matches today (if it will come to my entry point) and I hope I'll improve a bad taste from the morning Kyoto session where Mr. Peng lost 12 games in a row in a match which I believed it should be 50%: 50% match, sigh...
Anyway, as you have maybe realised spreadsheet isn't available for free anymore. I'm giving it away for first 20 interested people (still about 5 places left) for 10 eur per month. If you were using it before and still haven't decided if you want to buy it or not, you actually still have the access, but I can see who (from non-buyers) is using it and who not, so be fair and give me some credit if you are you using it (I know who those people are anyway).
As always I'll add one match from main tournament in for the preview on blog, others can be find on spreadsheet. As we don't have ATP matches from IW I'll also add Kyoto CH match later on when they will put a schedule for tomorrow.
Indian Wells (WTA, hard court)
23.00 - Zanevska - Fichman (2.26/1.58) - In my opinion this should be at least 50%/50% so everything below 2.00 on Fichman will be a lay for me. It's true that Fichman had a decent week and is growing from month to month and becoming a better and improved player. But also Zanevska has lifted her game a lot lately and she is a player that can cause problems to top 50 players (6-4, 6-3 vs Jankovic, beat Barthel. Zhang, Lepchenko, Martic, ...) They played 2 times against each other and Zanevska won both matches, but both were on clay, so that doesn't tell us a lot. Zanevska is a better player to me, but she has a one big problem and that's the amount of double faults she makes. She'll definitely need to cut double faults below 10 and I see her winning a set here for sure. It could be a nice match to see. I'm laying FIchman from start and adding if Fichman will go break up or set up. Zanevska to win a set and probably match if she'll cut down silly errors (especially df's).
Kyoto (CH, indoor hard)
28. 2. 14
Day before day-off
Hi.
Spreadsheet had a big success yesterday with strike rate of successful trades at astonishing 84% (16 out of 19). I hope many of you had profited from that, well, at least that's my goal, to help others as this is a game where we all can be winners. I'm not thinking today will be as good as yesterday, but if it's over 50% it's still ok. I would hope that first couple of trades go my way in order to have unstressful last day before taking a day off tomorrow. Of course at my day off also spreadsheet isn't updated.Btw: quite some matches today where i believe odds are totally wrong from the start and might drift a lot before they'll actually start.
Dubai (ATP, hard)
16.00 - Djokovic - Federer (1.21/4.34) - Huh, record match here as Djokovic hit lowest odds facing Federer today. They played 32 games and only 1 was a easy win (exhibition match in Dubai). I really don't know who on the earth would take Djokovic from the start at those odds? Ok, true, he is on fire and Federer is beyond his best years, but still, they are not really that far apart, it will be small things that will decide the match and it will be close as last 31 games have been so far. Big value is in laying Djokovic break or set up, as Federer will not see this as a game over. Djoko in two tight sets (1x tb) or 3-sets.
Florianopolis (WTA, hard)
18.30 - Muguruza - Shvedova (1.34/3.16) - I'll simpy copy/paste what I have written for TennisInsight: "Shvedova is playing ok, but Muguruza looks like a sexy version of The Beast, her power is enormous and she can constantly pressure the opponent when she is receiving. And what i appreciate most with Muguruza is her extreme concentration, that's some real winning mentality. Next top 10.
Shvedova's serves and game will need to be even better then in previous rounds (I watched her all - she was pretty good), she'll need to erradicate stupid unforced errors (quite some vs Strycova). 3-setter vs Uytvanck wasn't bad, they both showed some excellent tennis and a great comeback from Uytvanck from 5-3 down in 2nd set to win the tie-break. I'm tipping Muguruza here (TennisInsight), but IRL i'll wait if Muguruza can go break down or even set. Muguruza-4 games@1.80 also look like a nice value for straight bet."
Sao Paolo (ATP, indoor clay)
23.30 - Bellucci - Klizan (1.56/2.38) - Klizan should be at least 1.70 favorite on this match in my opinion. Everything points here to Klizan and if home country is worth the switch off odds, well then go for it, but I think it's a trap. Klizan won last 2 matches vs Bellucci, has the same style of tennis as Bellucci, both are left-handers, big serves, while Klizan is more steady player and Bellucci has more ups and downs and can implode at some moments. Bellucci also played a lots of matches lately (all long 3-setters) and I'm time he packs his bags. I'm laying Bellucci from the start and laying him again if he wins 1st set. Odds may increase a bit here (i did get him at 1.65, but i believe he may start at 1.80). Klizan in 2 or 3.
Acapulco (ATP, hard)
4.00 - Dimitrov - Murray (2.95/1.39) - Personally it will probably me a bit too late to follow, but I'll most likely put a small straight bet on Dimitrov to win a set. I don't see why Murray is such a big favorite (only because of the name!) and from what I have seen from him this week (struggling vs Simple Simon) he should be a lay from the start. Unless Murray will not raise the game on this occasion i'm seing nice chances for Dimitrov to finally take a set from Murray here. His best chances should be in 1st set, both are bad starters. I'm relaying Murray if he goes break up early. 3-sets
Acapulco (WTA, hard)
23.00 - Cibulkova - S.Zhang (1.29/3.51) - Well, I'll not lose a lots of words here... This looks like a banker bet (with decent odds) on Cibulkova to win. They played 3 times and 3 times Cib won easily in straight sets. Now that Cibulkova is in even better form then ever, she will be simply too much for the Chinese. As we don't like big risk/small rewards, i'm waiting if Cibulkova can have a bad start and go break down. 1.60 or higher would interest me a lot. I'm also laying if Zhang can get a surprise first set win. But i'm not really seeing anything else then a 2-0 for Cibulkova.
Spreadsheet had a big success yesterday with strike rate of successful trades at astonishing 84% (16 out of 19). I hope many of you had profited from that, well, at least that's my goal, to help others as this is a game where we all can be winners. I'm not thinking today will be as good as yesterday, but if it's over 50% it's still ok. I would hope that first couple of trades go my way in order to have unstressful last day before taking a day off tomorrow. Of course at my day off also spreadsheet isn't updated.Btw: quite some matches today where i believe odds are totally wrong from the start and might drift a lot before they'll actually start.
Dubai (ATP, hard)
16.00 - Djokovic - Federer (1.21/4.34) - Huh, record match here as Djokovic hit lowest odds facing Federer today. They played 32 games and only 1 was a easy win (exhibition match in Dubai). I really don't know who on the earth would take Djokovic from the start at those odds? Ok, true, he is on fire and Federer is beyond his best years, but still, they are not really that far apart, it will be small things that will decide the match and it will be close as last 31 games have been so far. Big value is in laying Djokovic break or set up, as Federer will not see this as a game over. Djoko in two tight sets (1x tb) or 3-sets.
Florianopolis (WTA, hard)
18.30 - Muguruza - Shvedova (1.34/3.16) - I'll simpy copy/paste what I have written for TennisInsight: "Shvedova is playing ok, but Muguruza looks like a sexy version of The Beast, her power is enormous and she can constantly pressure the opponent when she is receiving. And what i appreciate most with Muguruza is her extreme concentration, that's some real winning mentality. Next top 10.
Shvedova's serves and game will need to be even better then in previous rounds (I watched her all - she was pretty good), she'll need to erradicate stupid unforced errors (quite some vs Strycova). 3-setter vs Uytvanck wasn't bad, they both showed some excellent tennis and a great comeback from Uytvanck from 5-3 down in 2nd set to win the tie-break. I'm tipping Muguruza here (TennisInsight), but IRL i'll wait if Muguruza can go break down or even set. Muguruza-4 games@1.80 also look like a nice value for straight bet."
Sao Paolo (ATP, indoor clay)
23.30 - Bellucci - Klizan (1.56/2.38) - Klizan should be at least 1.70 favorite on this match in my opinion. Everything points here to Klizan and if home country is worth the switch off odds, well then go for it, but I think it's a trap. Klizan won last 2 matches vs Bellucci, has the same style of tennis as Bellucci, both are left-handers, big serves, while Klizan is more steady player and Bellucci has more ups and downs and can implode at some moments. Bellucci also played a lots of matches lately (all long 3-setters) and I'm time he packs his bags. I'm laying Bellucci from the start and laying him again if he wins 1st set. Odds may increase a bit here (i did get him at 1.65, but i believe he may start at 1.80). Klizan in 2 or 3.
Acapulco (ATP, hard)
4.00 - Dimitrov - Murray (2.95/1.39) - Personally it will probably me a bit too late to follow, but I'll most likely put a small straight bet on Dimitrov to win a set. I don't see why Murray is such a big favorite (only because of the name!) and from what I have seen from him this week (struggling vs Simple Simon) he should be a lay from the start. Unless Murray will not raise the game on this occasion i'm seing nice chances for Dimitrov to finally take a set from Murray here. His best chances should be in 1st set, both are bad starters. I'm relaying Murray if he goes break up early. 3-sets
Acapulco (WTA, hard)
23.00 - Cibulkova - S.Zhang (1.29/3.51) - Well, I'll not lose a lots of words here... This looks like a banker bet (with decent odds) on Cibulkova to win. They played 3 times and 3 times Cib won easily in straight sets. Now that Cibulkova is in even better form then ever, she will be simply too much for the Chinese. As we don't like big risk/small rewards, i'm waiting if Cibulkova can have a bad start and go break down. 1.60 or higher would interest me a lot. I'm also laying if Zhang can get a surprise first set win. But i'm not really seeing anything else then a 2-0 for Cibulkova.
27. 2. 14
A bit more relaxed day coming
Hello.
A bit more relaxed and less stressful (i hope) day is upon us. Still a lots of matches but nowhere near yesterday. I feel good day us upon us. Here are my thoughts on main events:
Dubai (ATP, hard)
16.00 - Djokovic - Youzhny (1.04/11.53) - I see no way Youzhny is winning this. Djokovic really on fire and hungry for a trophy after AO fail. Starting odds are rubbish and i'm going on Djokovic with full-stake if he can somehow get behind a break or even set. I don't see Youzhny capable of winning this match. Djokovic in 2.
Florianopolis (WTA, hard)
22.00 - Uytvanck - Muguruza (3.42/1.30) - Uytvanck is on fire this week, reaching QF's from qualifications. Muguruza on the other hand is a heavy hitter with hit or miss game. I believe she has started to sort out her shots better from match to match and may be too much for Uytvanck to handle today. Muguruza is a player who press hard on weak serves and Uytvanck will need to have a lots of 1st serves in to stay in the match. I see nice value in laying Muguruza break up or set up (low odds 1.15?) because she can quickly miss shot or two and break back is here. 3-sets.
Sao Paolo (ATP, indoor clay)
18.30 - Lorenzi - Dutra Silva (1.55/2.41) - Lorenzi played great match vs Riba (or was Riba bad?) and Dutra is just trying hard and fighting for every point to come where he is now. Lorenzi should win this comfortably but i'm not taking starting odds. Even thou I don't really believe Dutra can go break up i'll be waiting for that, else I'm not entering. So, back Lorenzi at around evens (break down) or even better lay Dutra set up. Lorenzi in 2 or 3.
Acapulco (ATP, hard)
23.00 - Karlovic - Dolgopolov (2.38/1.56) - Dolgopolov has not really been tested enough this week. He played rusty (and probably still injured) Pospisil and injured or ill Chardy. Both wins looked very easy. Karlovic's serve was tested already here and it's good. Dolgopolov will not find it easy to break Karlovic and if Karlovic will see a little struggle from Dolgopolov on serves he'll take his chances. I'm laying DOlgopolov from the start and exiting with 1/10 after every hold from Karlovic as odds will be moving towards evens closer the tie-break will be. I'll repeat that procedure in 2nd set if Dolgopolov will win 1st set. 3-sets, tie-breaks.
Acapulco (WTA, hard)
2.00 - Garcia - Bouchard (5.15/1.15) - Bouchard is again overrated (in odds) vs her opponent. She proved us in last 2 matches that it's ok that she's favorite, but I believe this is too low. Garcia had 2 good wins and will give some resistance to Bouchard. I'm laying Bouchard set up, because odds will be just too low to not take. Getting a free-bet on Garcia shouldn't be a problem. Possible that Bouchard drops a set when she relaxes after 1st set.
A bit more relaxed and less stressful (i hope) day is upon us. Still a lots of matches but nowhere near yesterday. I feel good day us upon us. Here are my thoughts on main events:
Dubai (ATP, hard)
16.00 - Djokovic - Youzhny (1.04/11.53) - I see no way Youzhny is winning this. Djokovic really on fire and hungry for a trophy after AO fail. Starting odds are rubbish and i'm going on Djokovic with full-stake if he can somehow get behind a break or even set. I don't see Youzhny capable of winning this match. Djokovic in 2.
Florianopolis (WTA, hard)
22.00 - Uytvanck - Muguruza (3.42/1.30) - Uytvanck is on fire this week, reaching QF's from qualifications. Muguruza on the other hand is a heavy hitter with hit or miss game. I believe she has started to sort out her shots better from match to match and may be too much for Uytvanck to handle today. Muguruza is a player who press hard on weak serves and Uytvanck will need to have a lots of 1st serves in to stay in the match. I see nice value in laying Muguruza break up or set up (low odds 1.15?) because she can quickly miss shot or two and break back is here. 3-sets.
Sao Paolo (ATP, indoor clay)
18.30 - Lorenzi - Dutra Silva (1.55/2.41) - Lorenzi played great match vs Riba (or was Riba bad?) and Dutra is just trying hard and fighting for every point to come where he is now. Lorenzi should win this comfortably but i'm not taking starting odds. Even thou I don't really believe Dutra can go break up i'll be waiting for that, else I'm not entering. So, back Lorenzi at around evens (break down) or even better lay Dutra set up. Lorenzi in 2 or 3.
Acapulco (ATP, hard)
23.00 - Karlovic - Dolgopolov (2.38/1.56) - Dolgopolov has not really been tested enough this week. He played rusty (and probably still injured) Pospisil and injured or ill Chardy. Both wins looked very easy. Karlovic's serve was tested already here and it's good. Dolgopolov will not find it easy to break Karlovic and if Karlovic will see a little struggle from Dolgopolov on serves he'll take his chances. I'm laying DOlgopolov from the start and exiting with 1/10 after every hold from Karlovic as odds will be moving towards evens closer the tie-break will be. I'll repeat that procedure in 2nd set if Dolgopolov will win 1st set. 3-sets, tie-breaks.
Acapulco (WTA, hard)
2.00 - Garcia - Bouchard (5.15/1.15) - Bouchard is again overrated (in odds) vs her opponent. She proved us in last 2 matches that it's ok that she's favorite, but I believe this is too low. Garcia had 2 good wins and will give some resistance to Bouchard. I'm laying Bouchard set up, because odds will be just too low to not take. Getting a free-bet on Garcia shouldn't be a problem. Possible that Bouchard drops a set when she relaxes after 1st set.
26. 2. 14
2nd rounds
Hello.
No straight bets today as I don't have time to do them. So only 4 trade previews from main tournaments. Everything else is covered in spreadsheet which i hope you like it, of course you can't expect all of the entries to work, but some surely do and if you go for all of them you'll end in profit for sure.
Dubai (ATP, hard court)
12.00 - Kohlschreiber - Seppi (1.32/3.26) - Nice match, where we did get almost the same odds as Mayer vs Seppi where Seppi has won. Probably Mayer is also better then Kohlschreiber. Seppi's game plan is to not do exactly much, try to get balls back, hit a winner when a chance and simply leave Kohlschreiber to beat himself with errors. They are tied at 4-4 in head to head matches and that surely is a sign the match will not be one-sided. Huge value lies on Seppi here. Big concern is a trademark bad start from Seppi because Seppi usually looks very uninterested in first couple of games, but then he gets his game on. I'll risk a lay from the start and hope Seppi can have a normal start today. I'll be putting liability out slowly as the game progresses and red out with small red if Kohlschreiber will be better in 1st set to lay him again for 2nd set. Seppi to take a set.
Florianopolis (WTA, hard)
15.00 - Ormaechea - Uytvanck (2.14/1.67) - Qualifier Uytvanck is playing great tennis for hard courts at the moment. SHe is winning games with her aggression and powerful shots, some of the work is also done with her (good) serving for WTA standard. Ormaechea can sometimes drop serve game very fast with couple of errors as she knows she can usually get back quicky, but it will be way harder vs Uytvanck. Uytvanck will have easier serve holds and will pressure Ormaechea more on serves. I'm going half-stake on Uytvanck from start and adding if Ormaechea goes break up. Uytvanck in 2 or 3. I'll hedge profit if Uytvanck wins a set.
Sao Paulo (indoor clay)
16.30 - Zeballos - Pella (2.21/1.64) - Hmmmh, Zeballos was very fortunate to get over Cuevas where he was always barely staying in, but somehow survived and won. Pella also had similar story has he did get the important points in order to win over Leo Mayer in 3. Pella is currently the player in better shape and knows how to get back (he made quite some good comebacks). Out of that reason i'm waiting for Zeballos to get in front (ideally in first few games, else i'll wait for the set) to get better value on Pella and then back him. So, laying Zeballos break up or set is the the strategy for me for this game.
Acapulco (ATP, hard)
5.00 - Sousa - Murray (8.61/1.06) - They both love playing baseline tennis where they are the best. Both are defenders with big shots and variety of skill (of course Murray has more of all). This will be a good hitting practice match for both and if Murrays serve will be average Sousa will have all the chances to be competitive from baseline. If Sousa will have in mind only that he must fight and enjoy in tennis and not to be worried about winning, he might give him the real match and a very good match for the audience. Sousa maybe to win a set, but Murray to win.
Acapulco (WTA, hard)
23.00 - Cibulkova - Wickmayer (1.30/3.42) - Cibulkova played ok in first round, she was getting good percentage off points on both serves and she wasn't been broken. Wickmayer had an up and downish match, offering many break points, losing points quickly, etc. I see quite some breaks of serve here, especially from Cibulkova, but starting odds don't interest me. I want to see Cibulkova break behind or at least 1.60 to get my attention. Cibulkova in 2 or 3.
No straight bets today as I don't have time to do them. So only 4 trade previews from main tournaments. Everything else is covered in spreadsheet which i hope you like it, of course you can't expect all of the entries to work, but some surely do and if you go for all of them you'll end in profit for sure.
Dubai (ATP, hard court)
12.00 - Kohlschreiber - Seppi (1.32/3.26) - Nice match, where we did get almost the same odds as Mayer vs Seppi where Seppi has won. Probably Mayer is also better then Kohlschreiber. Seppi's game plan is to not do exactly much, try to get balls back, hit a winner when a chance and simply leave Kohlschreiber to beat himself with errors. They are tied at 4-4 in head to head matches and that surely is a sign the match will not be one-sided. Huge value lies on Seppi here. Big concern is a trademark bad start from Seppi because Seppi usually looks very uninterested in first couple of games, but then he gets his game on. I'll risk a lay from the start and hope Seppi can have a normal start today. I'll be putting liability out slowly as the game progresses and red out with small red if Kohlschreiber will be better in 1st set to lay him again for 2nd set. Seppi to take a set.
Florianopolis (WTA, hard)
15.00 - Ormaechea - Uytvanck (2.14/1.67) - Qualifier Uytvanck is playing great tennis for hard courts at the moment. SHe is winning games with her aggression and powerful shots, some of the work is also done with her (good) serving for WTA standard. Ormaechea can sometimes drop serve game very fast with couple of errors as she knows she can usually get back quicky, but it will be way harder vs Uytvanck. Uytvanck will have easier serve holds and will pressure Ormaechea more on serves. I'm going half-stake on Uytvanck from start and adding if Ormaechea goes break up. Uytvanck in 2 or 3. I'll hedge profit if Uytvanck wins a set.
Sao Paulo (indoor clay)
16.30 - Zeballos - Pella (2.21/1.64) - Hmmmh, Zeballos was very fortunate to get over Cuevas where he was always barely staying in, but somehow survived and won. Pella also had similar story has he did get the important points in order to win over Leo Mayer in 3. Pella is currently the player in better shape and knows how to get back (he made quite some good comebacks). Out of that reason i'm waiting for Zeballos to get in front (ideally in first few games, else i'll wait for the set) to get better value on Pella and then back him. So, laying Zeballos break up or set is the the strategy for me for this game.
Acapulco (ATP, hard)
5.00 - Sousa - Murray (8.61/1.06) - They both love playing baseline tennis where they are the best. Both are defenders with big shots and variety of skill (of course Murray has more of all). This will be a good hitting practice match for both and if Murrays serve will be average Sousa will have all the chances to be competitive from baseline. If Sousa will have in mind only that he must fight and enjoy in tennis and not to be worried about winning, he might give him the real match and a very good match for the audience. Sousa maybe to win a set, but Murray to win.
Acapulco (WTA, hard)
23.00 - Cibulkova - Wickmayer (1.30/3.42) - Cibulkova played ok in first round, she was getting good percentage off points on both serves and she wasn't been broken. Wickmayer had an up and downish match, offering many break points, losing points quickly, etc. I see quite some breaks of serve here, especially from Cibulkova, but starting odds don't interest me. I want to see Cibulkova break behind or at least 1.60 to get my attention. Cibulkova in 2 or 3.
25. 2. 14
1st rounds in full glory
Hi.
Tonight we have a lots of matches on all tournaments, with 1st rounds to be completed today. I'll personally only trade later games (after 19h) and will take night shift today. So i'm skipping Dubai, Cherbourg and most of early Florianopolis matches. Previews will be done for all matches in spreadsheet as usually for those that are trading over the day.
Dubai (ATP, hard court)
11.00 - Stepanek - Russell (1.40/2.85) - Two veterans to play in 1st round of Dubai. Russell had good results in USA hard courts (beating Hewitt, taking Isner to 3, etc) while Stepanek was suffering due to a strained heel. It's still not known how his condition is, but if it's serious he might take it easy and be fully fit for upcoming Indian Wells. Even if Stepanek is healthy he can't beat Russell with left hand. Courts are not so fast as Stepanek would like and I see a pretty even match here with both guys having the same chances to win. I'm going for a lay from the start with option to relay on lower odds. There might be quite some breaks here. 3-sets.
Florianopolis (WTA, hard)
17.00 - Cadantu - Pfizenmaier (2.15/1.68) - I see quite a value here on Pfizenmaier already at the start. Pfizenmaier's game is suited for hard courts as she posses big shots and has a really amazing down the line backhand that's her primary weapon. Cadantu was shaky vs Gabriela Ce in first round but she wasn't a real threat to her as her shots were way too soft to be a danger on hard court. If Pfizenmaier will cut down unforced errors and especially double faults she should win this match. I'm half-stake backing Pfizenmaier from start with option to add some on higher odds and I'll lay Cadantu if she is set up. Pfizenmaier in 2 or 3.
Sao Paulo (ATP, indoor clay)
19.30 - Lorenzi - Riba (1.50/2.50) - Riba somehow found his serving again (he was struggling previous weeks), but has smacked incredible 31 aces in last 4 sets. That is an amazing number even for big servers. If he'll continue to serve like that that means he might get quite some free points and he'll have more energy to focus on breaking Lorenzi. Odds are too low on Lorenzi who will need to adjust to indoor conditions and when he'll adjust he might be already a break down. Laying Lorenzi from the start looks like a good way to g for me with perhaps laying also if break down or set down. Riba to win 1st set and has nice chances for a match as well.
Acapulco (ATP, hard)
2.00 - Matosevic - Dimitrov (3.46/1.29) - Dimitrov has become a reliable player in last few months. He doesn't have problems staying in rallies (he actually quite enjoys it) and has a big serve to get him some free points. Matosevic is very up and down player, he can impress you now, but you'll be very disappointed about him in next few minutes. He'll not be able to have a lots of mood/quality swings vs Dimitrov if he wants to be close. Dimitrov is better player as a whole and if he is up for a long run here he should dominate over Matosevic in 2 sets. Odds close to 1.40 are very interesting from the start for me, as I feel Matosevic will be more vulunerable on serve and likely to be broken first. I'm backing DImitrov from start and adding if Matosevic will win 1st set. Dimitrov in 2.
Acapulco (WTA, hard)
2.00 - Meusburger - Fichman (1.87/1.87) - These two players really can't be at evens just because Fichman came through qualies beating girls over 100th place and Meusburger lost vs Pennetta. Do you see a big difference in quality? Well, you should, because it is... In my opinion there is huge value already on MEusburger from the start but as she isn't used to courts and she's slow starter we might also wait a bit and hope Fichman can get an early break, because she'll not be able to continue with top game throughout the whole match. Laying Fichman break up or set up (if that happens) should give you a great value. Meusburger in 2 or 3.
Straight bets:
Rola@1.52, won 0.52
Merwe@4.23, lost -1.00
Gabashvili@1.46
Fucsovics@1.59
Teixeira@2.26
Daniel@1.49, lost -1.00
Millot@1.66
Bertens@1.64
Uytvanck@1.85
Pfizenmaier@1.74
Bedene@2.10
Giraldo@2.40
Meusburger@1.98
Wozniak@2.36
Kubot@2.74
Dimitrov@1.33
Sousa@2.08
F.Lopez@1.62
Tonight we have a lots of matches on all tournaments, with 1st rounds to be completed today. I'll personally only trade later games (after 19h) and will take night shift today. So i'm skipping Dubai, Cherbourg and most of early Florianopolis matches. Previews will be done for all matches in spreadsheet as usually for those that are trading over the day.
Dubai (ATP, hard court)
11.00 - Stepanek - Russell (1.40/2.85) - Two veterans to play in 1st round of Dubai. Russell had good results in USA hard courts (beating Hewitt, taking Isner to 3, etc) while Stepanek was suffering due to a strained heel. It's still not known how his condition is, but if it's serious he might take it easy and be fully fit for upcoming Indian Wells. Even if Stepanek is healthy he can't beat Russell with left hand. Courts are not so fast as Stepanek would like and I see a pretty even match here with both guys having the same chances to win. I'm going for a lay from the start with option to relay on lower odds. There might be quite some breaks here. 3-sets.
Florianopolis (WTA, hard)
17.00 - Cadantu - Pfizenmaier (2.15/1.68) - I see quite a value here on Pfizenmaier already at the start. Pfizenmaier's game is suited for hard courts as she posses big shots and has a really amazing down the line backhand that's her primary weapon. Cadantu was shaky vs Gabriela Ce in first round but she wasn't a real threat to her as her shots were way too soft to be a danger on hard court. If Pfizenmaier will cut down unforced errors and especially double faults she should win this match. I'm half-stake backing Pfizenmaier from start with option to add some on higher odds and I'll lay Cadantu if she is set up. Pfizenmaier in 2 or 3.
Sao Paulo (ATP, indoor clay)
19.30 - Lorenzi - Riba (1.50/2.50) - Riba somehow found his serving again (he was struggling previous weeks), but has smacked incredible 31 aces in last 4 sets. That is an amazing number even for big servers. If he'll continue to serve like that that means he might get quite some free points and he'll have more energy to focus on breaking Lorenzi. Odds are too low on Lorenzi who will need to adjust to indoor conditions and when he'll adjust he might be already a break down. Laying Lorenzi from the start looks like a good way to g for me with perhaps laying also if break down or set down. Riba to win 1st set and has nice chances for a match as well.
Acapulco (ATP, hard)
2.00 - Matosevic - Dimitrov (3.46/1.29) - Dimitrov has become a reliable player in last few months. He doesn't have problems staying in rallies (he actually quite enjoys it) and has a big serve to get him some free points. Matosevic is very up and down player, he can impress you now, but you'll be very disappointed about him in next few minutes. He'll not be able to have a lots of mood/quality swings vs Dimitrov if he wants to be close. Dimitrov is better player as a whole and if he is up for a long run here he should dominate over Matosevic in 2 sets. Odds close to 1.40 are very interesting from the start for me, as I feel Matosevic will be more vulunerable on serve and likely to be broken first. I'm backing DImitrov from start and adding if Matosevic will win 1st set. Dimitrov in 2.
Acapulco (WTA, hard)
2.00 - Meusburger - Fichman (1.87/1.87) - These two players really can't be at evens just because Fichman came through qualies beating girls over 100th place and Meusburger lost vs Pennetta. Do you see a big difference in quality? Well, you should, because it is... In my opinion there is huge value already on MEusburger from the start but as she isn't used to courts and she's slow starter we might also wait a bit and hope Fichman can get an early break, because she'll not be able to continue with top game throughout the whole match. Laying Fichman break up or set up (if that happens) should give you a great value. Meusburger in 2 or 3.
Straight bets:
Rola@1.52, won 0.52
Merwe@4.23, lost -1.00
Gabashvili@1.46
Fucsovics@1.59
Teixeira@2.26
Daniel@1.49, lost -1.00
Millot@1.66
Bertens@1.64
Uytvanck@1.85
Pfizenmaier@1.74
Bedene@2.10
Giraldo@2.40
Meusburger@1.98
Wozniak@2.36
Kubot@2.74
Dimitrov@1.33
Sousa@2.08
F.Lopez@1.62
24. 2. 14
New week is here
Good morning.
Quite some people have requested to have access to my spreadsheet and I hope you did get some benefit from using it. It's still available to get until the end of month, just get in touch with me. Anyway, new week has started and it's the last busy day with many tournaments before Indian Wells will start and will be on for 2 weeks. This week I'm covering both Acapulco tournaments, Sao Paolo (indoor clay), Florianopolis (hard court) and Dubai (ATP, hard court). In my spreadsheet you'll also find previews for Cherbourg (CH, indoor hard), Guangzhou (CH, hard) and Salinas (CH, clay).
Here are todays previews:
Florianopolis (WTA, hard court)
21.30 - Ormaechea - Haddad Maia (1.17/4.81) - It was last year in Florianopolis that I have seen Haddad Maia for the first time. She looked like a Kvitova doppelganger, very tall, left hander and with a big serve. She had a good run here last year and was close to a surprise win over Czink. At that time I thought we have a new bright prospect for WTA tennis, but after Florianopolis i haven't seen her play anymore (she's still very young) and I was quite disappointed as well with her in first round defeat previous round. Well, she prefers hard courts, so I give her much more chances today. Below 1.20 looks quite ok lay from the start for me here as Ormaechea can drop a game very quickly as she knows she can back quickly as well. I'm laying here from the start and hoping to get a free-bet on Haddad Maia and from there on it's easy to see where it will go. I might also considering relaying Ormaechea below 1.10 early in the 1st set. Haddad Maia can win a set if she'll be focused and even win for her wouldn't surprise me.
Sao Paolo (ATP, indoor clay)
18.00 - Schwartzman - Dutra Silva (1.55/2.44) - Ask yourself, what has Schwartzman done to be such a heavy favorite vs home player in Brazil? If your answer was nothing you are spot on. I mean it's ok that Schwartzman is favorite but he shouldn't be below 1.70 for sure, as Dutra Silva is not a player that will go away by himself. They played 4 times, last 2 wins went into Schwartzman's way while first 2 into Dutra's way. I need to add that all four encounters were on clay and all 4 were tight matches. Dutra will be motivated before the home crowd and may lift his game up a level or two. With everything said it's expected to be another tight match and value is definitely on Brazilian side and i'm going to go for a lay from the start here with option to relay on lower odds. 3-sets is most likely.
Dubai (ATP, hard)
13.00 - Seppi - F.Mayer (2.60/1.48) - Seppi has now lost a couple of games in a row, he was also crippled by some health issues in the beginning of the year (illness), but I believe he is past those problems now. Healthy or not, Seppi is a very bad starter and he is known to go break down in 1st set in majority of his games. Even thou the odds are excellent to lay F.Mayer from the start I'll wait if Seppi can have one of his trademark starts and go break down as that will give us odds around 1.20-1.30 to lay which is great for the start of 1st set. This will be quite a good battle and enjoyable match to watch in my opinion. Mayer was recently having some problems with the shoulder but he's probably ok by now. Lay F.Mayer break or set up will give us a great value on this match. It's 50%/50% match for me and if anyone wins in 2 sets i will be very surprised. 3-sets, Seppi.
Acapulco (ATP, hard)
1.00 - Chardy - Ebden (1.39/2.86) - Odds on Chardy look tempting to take if Ebden will have another match without his main weapon loaded (serve). Ebden was struggling to hit any good serves in in his last 2 matches and he made over 20 df's in last 2 matches. He simply doesn't stand a chance vs Chardy without big serve today. I'm going something small on Chardy (1/5) from the start with option to lay half-stake if Ebden can somehow win 1st set (but only if he'll be serving average, i'm not going against Ebden if his serve will be firing). Probably Chardy in 2 if no big change to better from Ebden.
Acapulco (WTA, hard)
23.00 - Barty - Tsurenko (1.72/2.11) - This opening odds really surprised me a lot. Barty as a favorite? Really? Well, you can never tell, maybe the bookies are right after all. But they (bookies) set Barty as a favorite because of her solid run in Australia (home) and because Tsurenko hasn't achieved much lately, but she has gained some form this week and won 2 good matches. Tsurenko is not one of the reliable players, but i believe she's worth a shot at this odds vs unexperienced Barty. Tsurenko is definietly better player on the baseline, but she'll need to force Barty into baseline tennis and try to play longer points, as I think Barty will like to play short points and go for winners fast. If Tsurenko will be patient then at least a set shouldn't slip away from her. Tsurenko in 2 or 3 is my call.
Straight bets:
Gong@3.39, lost -1.00
Venus@2.26, won 1.26
Agut@1.19, won 0.19
Seppi@2.67, won 0.67
Bakker@4.14, lost -1.00
Arnaboldi@2.35, lost -1.00
Berankis@1.35, won 0.35
Haddad Maia@5.40, lost -1.00
Elias@2.64, won 1.64
Dutra Silva@2.38, won 1.38
Trungelliti@1.85, won 0.85
Jovanovski@1.21, won 0.21
Tsurenko@2.20, lost -1.00
TOTAL: 1.55
Quite some people have requested to have access to my spreadsheet and I hope you did get some benefit from using it. It's still available to get until the end of month, just get in touch with me. Anyway, new week has started and it's the last busy day with many tournaments before Indian Wells will start and will be on for 2 weeks. This week I'm covering both Acapulco tournaments, Sao Paolo (indoor clay), Florianopolis (hard court) and Dubai (ATP, hard court). In my spreadsheet you'll also find previews for Cherbourg (CH, indoor hard), Guangzhou (CH, hard) and Salinas (CH, clay).
Here are todays previews:
Florianopolis (WTA, hard court)
21.30 - Ormaechea - Haddad Maia (1.17/4.81) - It was last year in Florianopolis that I have seen Haddad Maia for the first time. She looked like a Kvitova doppelganger, very tall, left hander and with a big serve. She had a good run here last year and was close to a surprise win over Czink. At that time I thought we have a new bright prospect for WTA tennis, but after Florianopolis i haven't seen her play anymore (she's still very young) and I was quite disappointed as well with her in first round defeat previous round. Well, she prefers hard courts, so I give her much more chances today. Below 1.20 looks quite ok lay from the start for me here as Ormaechea can drop a game very quickly as she knows she can back quickly as well. I'm laying here from the start and hoping to get a free-bet on Haddad Maia and from there on it's easy to see where it will go. I might also considering relaying Ormaechea below 1.10 early in the 1st set. Haddad Maia can win a set if she'll be focused and even win for her wouldn't surprise me.
Sao Paolo (ATP, indoor clay)
18.00 - Schwartzman - Dutra Silva (1.55/2.44) - Ask yourself, what has Schwartzman done to be such a heavy favorite vs home player in Brazil? If your answer was nothing you are spot on. I mean it's ok that Schwartzman is favorite but he shouldn't be below 1.70 for sure, as Dutra Silva is not a player that will go away by himself. They played 4 times, last 2 wins went into Schwartzman's way while first 2 into Dutra's way. I need to add that all four encounters were on clay and all 4 were tight matches. Dutra will be motivated before the home crowd and may lift his game up a level or two. With everything said it's expected to be another tight match and value is definitely on Brazilian side and i'm going to go for a lay from the start here with option to relay on lower odds. 3-sets is most likely.
Dubai (ATP, hard)
13.00 - Seppi - F.Mayer (2.60/1.48) - Seppi has now lost a couple of games in a row, he was also crippled by some health issues in the beginning of the year (illness), but I believe he is past those problems now. Healthy or not, Seppi is a very bad starter and he is known to go break down in 1st set in majority of his games. Even thou the odds are excellent to lay F.Mayer from the start I'll wait if Seppi can have one of his trademark starts and go break down as that will give us odds around 1.20-1.30 to lay which is great for the start of 1st set. This will be quite a good battle and enjoyable match to watch in my opinion. Mayer was recently having some problems with the shoulder but he's probably ok by now. Lay F.Mayer break or set up will give us a great value on this match. It's 50%/50% match for me and if anyone wins in 2 sets i will be very surprised. 3-sets, Seppi.
Acapulco (ATP, hard)
1.00 - Chardy - Ebden (1.39/2.86) - Odds on Chardy look tempting to take if Ebden will have another match without his main weapon loaded (serve). Ebden was struggling to hit any good serves in in his last 2 matches and he made over 20 df's in last 2 matches. He simply doesn't stand a chance vs Chardy without big serve today. I'm going something small on Chardy (1/5) from the start with option to lay half-stake if Ebden can somehow win 1st set (but only if he'll be serving average, i'm not going against Ebden if his serve will be firing). Probably Chardy in 2 if no big change to better from Ebden.
Acapulco (WTA, hard)
23.00 - Barty - Tsurenko (1.72/2.11) - This opening odds really surprised me a lot. Barty as a favorite? Really? Well, you can never tell, maybe the bookies are right after all. But they (bookies) set Barty as a favorite because of her solid run in Australia (home) and because Tsurenko hasn't achieved much lately, but she has gained some form this week and won 2 good matches. Tsurenko is not one of the reliable players, but i believe she's worth a shot at this odds vs unexperienced Barty. Tsurenko is definietly better player on the baseline, but she'll need to force Barty into baseline tennis and try to play longer points, as I think Barty will like to play short points and go for winners fast. If Tsurenko will be patient then at least a set shouldn't slip away from her. Tsurenko in 2 or 3 is my call.
Straight bets:
Gong@3.39, lost -1.00
Venus@2.26, won 1.26
Agut@1.19, won 0.19
Seppi@2.67, won 0.67
Bakker@4.14, lost -1.00
Arnaboldi@2.35, lost -1.00
Berankis@1.35, won 0.35
Haddad Maia@5.40, lost -1.00
Elias@2.64, won 1.64
Dutra Silva@2.38, won 1.38
Trungelliti@1.85, won 0.85
Jovanovski@1.21, won 0.21
Tsurenko@2.20, lost -1.00
TOTAL: 1.55
22. 2. 14
Day of the qualifiers
Howdy.
We have bunch of finals which I'm not trading as I prefer to watch them in peace without any stress, which I deserve after a hard working week. I'll focus on some of the qualifying matches that turn my interest. I'll try to play it a bit more cautious, so many games will not get to their trade-entry point, but as the old saying goes: "At least you can't lose money if there is no entry".
You can still apply for the spreadsheet (How? Read previous post), as it will be available for free until end of Februray. It includes all ATP/WTA matches and also all CH matches that are available to trade on Betfair.
Dubai (ATP, hard court)
9.30 - Copil - Gallung (1.68/2.07) - Both are big servers and first set will be decided by one break of serve or even a tie-break. Copil has good comeback stats and as this is very important tournament I don't expect him to simply fold if he losses first set. So I see biggest value in laying Galung set up on this certain game. I'll not be very disappointed if there will be no entry (if Copil wins 1st set), but I don't see value from the start.
Lay Gallung set up. 3-sets, Copil.
Florianopolis (WTA, hard)
15.00 - Mestach - Marino (1.43/2.66) - Mestach is deserved to be favorite on this match, but around 1.50 looks just silly considering they are pretty much on same level and small things will decide the winner. Plus Marino is player who can adjust her game, Mestach can't as she is very one-dimensional hard hitting girl. As the odds are already so low at he start, we want to get even better position, so I'll wait if MEstach can get a break in 1st set (unless it's very late) and then lay Mestach. I'll also relay in 2nd set as I don't see 1-0 in sets as a game over yet. Marino won their last match which was on grass in 3 sets. I see another 3 setter with a lots of value on Marino.
Sao Paolo (ATP, indoor clay)
18.00 - Bagnis - Tsuchiya (1.08/6.92) - I'm usually against backing on low odds, but this seems like a good oportunity to back at a bit over 1.10 on Bagnis. Tsuchiya lost 3 games vs Becuzzi who is 40 year old player who hasn't won a game since ever (he is playing tournament qualification just by paying money to get there). Bagnis is a left hander and that's just that much better then Tsuchiya was against Becuzzi. Back Bagnis start and back him again (unless injured) if he losses 1st set (he'll not). Bagnis in 2.
Acapulco (ATP, hard)
00.30 - Young - Smyczek (1.53/2.35) - Usually those two have tough mathces and they certainly know each other as they have played 11 times. Young is leading 7:4 but their winning streaks also go for 2 wins in a row and currently Smyczek is on 1 so he might get another win. Odds are very good for laying from the start so lay Young from start with half-stake and have another half-stake reserved if Young wins 1st set or breaks first. Take profit if Smyczek wins the set. Smyczek 2-0/2-1 for me.
Acapulco (WTA, hard)
23.00 - Konta - Bencic (2.47/1.49) - Ok, true, Bencic is great kid and she is in great form, but nevertheless she needed 3 tough sets to win over Rogowska who is not as good as Konta. And odds are on 1.49? I don't see exactly why...Konta isn't bad if she can put her good game on and is ranked higher then Bencic. I'll go laying Bencic break or set up up (maybe half+half) in believe Konta will win a set or be close to win one.
3-sets.
Straight bets:
Elias@1.10, won 0.10
Bagnis@1.10, won 0.10
Lajovic@1.37, won 0.37
Lacko@1.94, won 0.94
Smyczek@2.51, won 1.51
Kleybanova@2.56, lost -1.00
Vecino@1.57, won 0.57
Tsurenko@1.69, won 0.69
Davis@1.68, lost -1.00
Starace@1.10, won 0.10
TOTAL: 2.38
We have bunch of finals which I'm not trading as I prefer to watch them in peace without any stress, which I deserve after a hard working week. I'll focus on some of the qualifying matches that turn my interest. I'll try to play it a bit more cautious, so many games will not get to their trade-entry point, but as the old saying goes: "At least you can't lose money if there is no entry".
You can still apply for the spreadsheet (How? Read previous post), as it will be available for free until end of Februray. It includes all ATP/WTA matches and also all CH matches that are available to trade on Betfair.
Dubai (ATP, hard court)
9.30 - Copil - Gallung (1.68/2.07) - Both are big servers and first set will be decided by one break of serve or even a tie-break. Copil has good comeback stats and as this is very important tournament I don't expect him to simply fold if he losses first set. So I see biggest value in laying Galung set up on this certain game. I'll not be very disappointed if there will be no entry (if Copil wins 1st set), but I don't see value from the start.
Lay Gallung set up. 3-sets, Copil.
Florianopolis (WTA, hard)
15.00 - Mestach - Marino (1.43/2.66) - Mestach is deserved to be favorite on this match, but around 1.50 looks just silly considering they are pretty much on same level and small things will decide the winner. Plus Marino is player who can adjust her game, Mestach can't as she is very one-dimensional hard hitting girl. As the odds are already so low at he start, we want to get even better position, so I'll wait if MEstach can get a break in 1st set (unless it's very late) and then lay Mestach. I'll also relay in 2nd set as I don't see 1-0 in sets as a game over yet. Marino won their last match which was on grass in 3 sets. I see another 3 setter with a lots of value on Marino.
Sao Paolo (ATP, indoor clay)
18.00 - Bagnis - Tsuchiya (1.08/6.92) - I'm usually against backing on low odds, but this seems like a good oportunity to back at a bit over 1.10 on Bagnis. Tsuchiya lost 3 games vs Becuzzi who is 40 year old player who hasn't won a game since ever (he is playing tournament qualification just by paying money to get there). Bagnis is a left hander and that's just that much better then Tsuchiya was against Becuzzi. Back Bagnis start and back him again (unless injured) if he losses 1st set (he'll not). Bagnis in 2.
Acapulco (ATP, hard)
00.30 - Young - Smyczek (1.53/2.35) - Usually those two have tough mathces and they certainly know each other as they have played 11 times. Young is leading 7:4 but their winning streaks also go for 2 wins in a row and currently Smyczek is on 1 so he might get another win. Odds are very good for laying from the start so lay Young from start with half-stake and have another half-stake reserved if Young wins 1st set or breaks first. Take profit if Smyczek wins the set. Smyczek 2-0/2-1 for me.
Acapulco (WTA, hard)
23.00 - Konta - Bencic (2.47/1.49) - Ok, true, Bencic is great kid and she is in great form, but nevertheless she needed 3 tough sets to win over Rogowska who is not as good as Konta. And odds are on 1.49? I don't see exactly why...Konta isn't bad if she can put her good game on and is ranked higher then Bencic. I'll go laying Bencic break or set up up (maybe half+half) in believe Konta will win a set or be close to win one.
3-sets.
Straight bets:
Elias@1.10, won 0.10
Bagnis@1.10, won 0.10
Lajovic@1.37, won 0.37
Lacko@1.94, won 0.94
Smyczek@2.51, won 1.51
Kleybanova@2.56, lost -1.00
Vecino@1.57, won 0.57
Tsurenko@1.69, won 0.69
Davis@1.68, lost -1.00
Starace@1.10, won 0.10
TOTAL: 2.38
Usuall day off
Hello.
As usually I'm taking today off. I wasn't exactly happy with this week even thou I ended with profit. Yesterday morning was real hell situation as I started with around 10 consecutive reds and when things were looking so awful I somehow changed my mind (I was watching the match) on Pereira-Begu match where I had my back on Pereira from the start and switched to Begu late in 1st set. Of course Pereira immediately raised her game and took away the set and won in straights. I got involved also on Serena match where I layed Cornet at 2-0 up in 2nd set... but... ended with a red, as I decided to stay on Serena after that magnificent 2-0 to 2-3 return. It really did surprise me that she lost in 2 after that comeback. Anyway, at some point my red was extremely high and I had real doubts in me and wanted to quit the day early with ugly losses but decided i'll go on for couple of matches as the luck must turn around. And it did, i won almost nearly full-stakes on Dolgopolov, Tsonga and Ormaechea-Burnett match. If I would keep on going after this I could maybe even get back to profit, but I decided to let it go, after all, I was happy with huge recovery.
Anyway... If anyone wants access to my spreadsheet to see how it looks and what does it offer to you, I'm giving it free until end of February. (so for 1 week). After that I'll charge something small for it (10 eur per month or something, as it takes me around 3-4 hours daily to update it). I believe you'll find it usefull and it's a perfect tool for those that don't have time to do their "homework" everyday and you'll save yourself couple of hours daily.
Just write me to: mitja.gruber@gmail.com with topic: spreadsheet and I'll give you access to it. It's preferably that you have gmail account as I'm using google drive to share the document which is in XLS format.
As usually I'm taking today off. I wasn't exactly happy with this week even thou I ended with profit. Yesterday morning was real hell situation as I started with around 10 consecutive reds and when things were looking so awful I somehow changed my mind (I was watching the match) on Pereira-Begu match where I had my back on Pereira from the start and switched to Begu late in 1st set. Of course Pereira immediately raised her game and took away the set and won in straights. I got involved also on Serena match where I layed Cornet at 2-0 up in 2nd set... but... ended with a red, as I decided to stay on Serena after that magnificent 2-0 to 2-3 return. It really did surprise me that she lost in 2 after that comeback. Anyway, at some point my red was extremely high and I had real doubts in me and wanted to quit the day early with ugly losses but decided i'll go on for couple of matches as the luck must turn around. And it did, i won almost nearly full-stakes on Dolgopolov, Tsonga and Ormaechea-Burnett match. If I would keep on going after this I could maybe even get back to profit, but I decided to let it go, after all, I was happy with huge recovery.
Anyway... If anyone wants access to my spreadsheet to see how it looks and what does it offer to you, I'm giving it free until end of February. (so for 1 week). After that I'll charge something small for it (10 eur per month or something, as it takes me around 3-4 hours daily to update it). I believe you'll find it usefull and it's a perfect tool for those that don't have time to do their "homework" everyday and you'll save yourself couple of hours daily.
Just write me to: mitja.gruber@gmail.com with topic: spreadsheet and I'll give you access to it. It's preferably that you have gmail account as I'm using google drive to share the document which is in XLS format.
21. 2. 14
Slightly better
Hi.
Yesterday was slightly better day, but I have already suffered some unpleasant losses in CH matches. It looked like a big favorites day as none of the underdogs that I believed in them could even get close to getting in front.
Dubai (WTA, hard court)
14.00 - Wozniacki - V.Williams (2.17/1.66) - My humble opinion is that Venus is overrated this week, as she wasn't really that good that the results show, somehow her opponents didn't have the best day when they faced her. Maybe that'll be the case as well today, but I feel Wozniacki is more then capable of beating Venus today and motivation shouldn't be any concern for Wozniacki as she hasn't been near final for looong time. Anyway... I'm going (maybe stupid) for a lay from the start on VEnus with option of relaying if Venus will get an early break, as I see very hard and tight first set. Wozniacki will need to have better depth on the balls then Pennetta had (her balls were landing mostly on the service field), and that will keep Venus behind the baseline and she'll make more errors then Wozniacki. 3-sets, Wozniacki to win.
Marseille (ATP, indoor hard)
18.30 - Tsonga - Vasselin (1.12/5.82) - You might know by now I'm not keen on backing on low odds. But this bet looks so solid you could put your house on (not literally). Vasselin is injured (knee) and has lost all 4 h2h matches to Tsonga, winning just 1 set. Tsonga is fired up and plays good. I'm going for a back from the start and adding another back if Tsonga will lose the set. It will be just too unbelieable that Vasselin would win (in injured stated) in 2 sets over Tsonga. But probably we'll see retirement from Vasselin.
Rio de Janeiro (WTA,clay)
18.00 - Burrnett - Ormaechea (2.65/1.46) - Ormaechea looks way more solid player then Burnett on clay to me. She is more constant, more focused and will grind till the end. Burnett is erratic player, who can play extremely good for some minutes then turn to extremely bad, that's just not the way you want to play on clay where you need to be solid throughout the whole match. I believe Ormaechea will provide us with that. This is Burnett's 5th match this week and she might run out of energy. I'm on half-stake on Ormaechea and adding half if Burnett goes break up early. I see Ormaechea winning in 2.
Rio de Janeiro (ATP, clay)
20.30 - Bellucci - Ferrer (5.82/1.13) - Big game for home player Thomasz Bellucci here. He did actually won against Ferrer in 2012 (Ferrer was ill on that day, so it really doesn't count that much), but then again... I see Bellucci will be very motivated and focused from the start, he has the better serve then Ferrer (who doesn't?) and he'll probably start better. Even thou Ferrer is defending final points next year in Acapulco i don't feel he'll let this match to Bellucci. Bellucci to win 1st set then Ferrer will turn on the style and win in 3.
Delray Beach (ATP, hard court)
20.30 - Johnson - F. Lopez (2.51/1.51) - Yes, I do give some credit on improvement of Johnson lately and win against Haas was pretty impressive even thou he wasn't the better player on the court. But Lopez is simply the better player and he is smart and he doesn't do silly things. His priority is to hold serves and he's good at that. He likes to be very defensive on receiving side and if Johnson will have a game of 2nd serves he'll need to be very careful to win that game. I'll go half-stake backing Lopez from the start and adding half if Johnson wins 1st set. I'll take profit if Lopez will win the set. Lopez in 2 or 3.
Straight bets:
G.Melzer@2.97, won 1.97
Anderson@1.54, won 0.54
F.Lopez@1.53, lost -1.00
Robredo@1.37, lost -1.00
Ormaechea@1.50, lost -1.00
Pereira@1.68, won 0.68
Piter@5.40, lost -1.00
Wozniacki@2.31, lost -1.00
S.Williams@1.05, lost -1.00
Marchenko@2.31, lost -1.00
Dustov@1.78, won 0.78
Tsonga@1.14, won 0.14
Ferrer@1.17, won 0.17
TOTAL: -2.72
Yesterday was slightly better day, but I have already suffered some unpleasant losses in CH matches. It looked like a big favorites day as none of the underdogs that I believed in them could even get close to getting in front.
Dubai (WTA, hard court)
14.00 - Wozniacki - V.Williams (2.17/1.66) - My humble opinion is that Venus is overrated this week, as she wasn't really that good that the results show, somehow her opponents didn't have the best day when they faced her. Maybe that'll be the case as well today, but I feel Wozniacki is more then capable of beating Venus today and motivation shouldn't be any concern for Wozniacki as she hasn't been near final for looong time. Anyway... I'm going (maybe stupid) for a lay from the start on VEnus with option of relaying if Venus will get an early break, as I see very hard and tight first set. Wozniacki will need to have better depth on the balls then Pennetta had (her balls were landing mostly on the service field), and that will keep Venus behind the baseline and she'll make more errors then Wozniacki. 3-sets, Wozniacki to win.
Marseille (ATP, indoor hard)
18.30 - Tsonga - Vasselin (1.12/5.82) - You might know by now I'm not keen on backing on low odds. But this bet looks so solid you could put your house on (not literally). Vasselin is injured (knee) and has lost all 4 h2h matches to Tsonga, winning just 1 set. Tsonga is fired up and plays good. I'm going for a back from the start and adding another back if Tsonga will lose the set. It will be just too unbelieable that Vasselin would win (in injured stated) in 2 sets over Tsonga. But probably we'll see retirement from Vasselin.
Rio de Janeiro (WTA,clay)
18.00 - Burrnett - Ormaechea (2.65/1.46) - Ormaechea looks way more solid player then Burnett on clay to me. She is more constant, more focused and will grind till the end. Burnett is erratic player, who can play extremely good for some minutes then turn to extremely bad, that's just not the way you want to play on clay where you need to be solid throughout the whole match. I believe Ormaechea will provide us with that. This is Burnett's 5th match this week and she might run out of energy. I'm on half-stake on Ormaechea and adding half if Burnett goes break up early. I see Ormaechea winning in 2.
Rio de Janeiro (ATP, clay)
20.30 - Bellucci - Ferrer (5.82/1.13) - Big game for home player Thomasz Bellucci here. He did actually won against Ferrer in 2012 (Ferrer was ill on that day, so it really doesn't count that much), but then again... I see Bellucci will be very motivated and focused from the start, he has the better serve then Ferrer (who doesn't?) and he'll probably start better. Even thou Ferrer is defending final points next year in Acapulco i don't feel he'll let this match to Bellucci. Bellucci to win 1st set then Ferrer will turn on the style and win in 3.
Delray Beach (ATP, hard court)
20.30 - Johnson - F. Lopez (2.51/1.51) - Yes, I do give some credit on improvement of Johnson lately and win against Haas was pretty impressive even thou he wasn't the better player on the court. But Lopez is simply the better player and he is smart and he doesn't do silly things. His priority is to hold serves and he's good at that. He likes to be very defensive on receiving side and if Johnson will have a game of 2nd serves he'll need to be very careful to win that game. I'll go half-stake backing Lopez from the start and adding half if Johnson wins 1st set. I'll take profit if Lopez will win the set. Lopez in 2 or 3.
Straight bets:
G.Melzer@2.97, won 1.97
Anderson@1.54, won 0.54
F.Lopez@1.53, lost -1.00
Robredo@1.37, lost -1.00
Ormaechea@1.50, lost -1.00
Pereira@1.68, won 0.68
Piter@5.40, lost -1.00
Wozniacki@2.31, lost -1.00
S.Williams@1.05, lost -1.00
Marchenko@2.31, lost -1.00
Dustov@1.78, won 0.78
Tsonga@1.14, won 0.14
Ferrer@1.17, won 0.17
TOTAL: -2.72
20. 2. 14
Disaster
Hiya.
Well, this is a bit embarrasing right now. One day back all my previews were spot on, the next day it was a complete disaster from start till end. I don't even want to think how all of my straight bets were wrong, probably the Chimp would produce better analyses and picks as I did yesterday. Fun part is i had a green day in the end (trading) and that's what matters most, that you can escape with small red or even profit on such a horrible days like that. Still the spreadsheet had many good possible trades (like every day). I'll be offering my spreadsheet for 10 eur per month for any of you that might be interested from March on.
Marseille (ATP, indoor hard)
18.30 - Gulbis - Agut (1.32/3.27) - Gulbis won the only h2h match they played in St.Petersburg. The match will be known for the "squeaky shoes" incident as Gulbis was squeaking with his shoes (deliberately) to annoy Agut on service line. I wonder if Gulbis will put on the squeaky shoes again tonight. Gulbis starts very low tonight, it's a bit logical after his good run in Rotterdam and recent wrist injury from Agut. Agut played 1 match already and looked ok vs Brown (won in 3). I'll be looking for a lower lay on Gulbis (break up or set up) as I see the match will not be over as Agut usually doesn't go away so quickly. 3-sets and over 21.5 games.
Dubai (WTA, hard court)
16.00 - S.Williams - Jankovic (1.13/5.62) - Jankovic has the game to trouble Serena who isn't at her best at the moment. Serena had problems over Makarova and she needed to destroyed the racquet in order to get through with her frustration and turned the set into her way. Jankovic took a set from Serena in last 2 matches and she knows how to be dangerous to her. My trade is simple here: laying from the start, trying to get a free bet (if there's an option for good exit at bp for Serena i'll take it of course) on Jankovic and get some profit. Jankovic to win a set would be nice. Jankovic+5.5games looks a decent straight bet.
Rio de Janeiro (WTA, clay)
15.00 - Royg - Begu (2.75/1.42) - Royg looks a favorite to me here. Both came to 2nd round through qualifications and are used to clay by now. Odds on BEgu look very short even from the start but my plan is to take it cautiously and lay Begu break up (unless it's late in 1st set) or set up. I see many breaks and break backs here and hold of serve will probably be more important the break. I see a 3-setter here and i do slightly favor Royg to win.
Rio de Janeiro (ATP, clay)
17.30 - Cuevas - Fognini (4.21/1.21) - With Acapulco coming closer and closer I only see two options here (both look profitable to us): one is, Fognini will lose this or next match and prepare himself for Acapulco where he is defending points or he'll try to go deep here as well and then take a holidays in beautiful and luxurious Acapulco. So question, are you willing to risk 20 ticks? I am. I don't see Fognini coming back from another 1-0 down or winning another 3-setter. Logic say he will leave this match and fly to Acapulco today. I'm laying Fognini from the start and leaving lay in play. Cuevas to win.
Delray Beach (ATP, hard court)
00.30 - Sela - Isner (3.55/1.28) - It's not going to be easy win for Isner, but motivation is high for both players and I don't see anyone having an edge in 1st set. Isner doesn't have problems with just keeping his own serves and probably Sela will be trying more to get a break then TB as TB's are Isner's speciality. I'll for a lay from the start (ideally Isner start serving and gives us 5 ticks lower price) and taking 1/6 of the stake out after every hold from Sela so I'll end with small profit at 6-6 if it goes to there. If the red will be small in 1st set i'll repeat the process in 2nd set. Maybe a 3-setter. TB to be played.
Straight bets:
Baghdatis@1.73, lost -1.00
Cilic@1.21, won 0.21
G.Melzer@1.45, won 0.45
Ram@1.36, won 0.36
Ramos@1.51, lost -1.00
Dolgopolov@1.26, won 0.26
Royg@3.03, lost -1.00
Lino@1.79, won 0.79
Seppi@2.47, lost -1.00
Kamke@2.84, lost -1.00
V.Williams@1.63, won 0.63
Navarro@1.87, lost -1.00
Jankovic@6.50, lost -1.00
Ilhan@1.14, won 0.14
Muller@1.37, won 0.37
Pouille@1.48, won 0.48
TOTAL: -3.31
Well, this is a bit embarrasing right now. One day back all my previews were spot on, the next day it was a complete disaster from start till end. I don't even want to think how all of my straight bets were wrong, probably the Chimp would produce better analyses and picks as I did yesterday. Fun part is i had a green day in the end (trading) and that's what matters most, that you can escape with small red or even profit on such a horrible days like that. Still the spreadsheet had many good possible trades (like every day). I'll be offering my spreadsheet for 10 eur per month for any of you that might be interested from March on.
Marseille (ATP, indoor hard)
18.30 - Gulbis - Agut (1.32/3.27) - Gulbis won the only h2h match they played in St.Petersburg. The match will be known for the "squeaky shoes" incident as Gulbis was squeaking with his shoes (deliberately) to annoy Agut on service line. I wonder if Gulbis will put on the squeaky shoes again tonight. Gulbis starts very low tonight, it's a bit logical after his good run in Rotterdam and recent wrist injury from Agut. Agut played 1 match already and looked ok vs Brown (won in 3). I'll be looking for a lower lay on Gulbis (break up or set up) as I see the match will not be over as Agut usually doesn't go away so quickly. 3-sets and over 21.5 games.
Dubai (WTA, hard court)
16.00 - S.Williams - Jankovic (1.13/5.62) - Jankovic has the game to trouble Serena who isn't at her best at the moment. Serena had problems over Makarova and she needed to destroyed the racquet in order to get through with her frustration and turned the set into her way. Jankovic took a set from Serena in last 2 matches and she knows how to be dangerous to her. My trade is simple here: laying from the start, trying to get a free bet (if there's an option for good exit at bp for Serena i'll take it of course) on Jankovic and get some profit. Jankovic to win a set would be nice. Jankovic+5.5games looks a decent straight bet.
Rio de Janeiro (WTA, clay)
15.00 - Royg - Begu (2.75/1.42) - Royg looks a favorite to me here. Both came to 2nd round through qualifications and are used to clay by now. Odds on BEgu look very short even from the start but my plan is to take it cautiously and lay Begu break up (unless it's late in 1st set) or set up. I see many breaks and break backs here and hold of serve will probably be more important the break. I see a 3-setter here and i do slightly favor Royg to win.
Rio de Janeiro (ATP, clay)
17.30 - Cuevas - Fognini (4.21/1.21) - With Acapulco coming closer and closer I only see two options here (both look profitable to us): one is, Fognini will lose this or next match and prepare himself for Acapulco where he is defending points or he'll try to go deep here as well and then take a holidays in beautiful and luxurious Acapulco. So question, are you willing to risk 20 ticks? I am. I don't see Fognini coming back from another 1-0 down or winning another 3-setter. Logic say he will leave this match and fly to Acapulco today. I'm laying Fognini from the start and leaving lay in play. Cuevas to win.
Delray Beach (ATP, hard court)
00.30 - Sela - Isner (3.55/1.28) - It's not going to be easy win for Isner, but motivation is high for both players and I don't see anyone having an edge in 1st set. Isner doesn't have problems with just keeping his own serves and probably Sela will be trying more to get a break then TB as TB's are Isner's speciality. I'll for a lay from the start (ideally Isner start serving and gives us 5 ticks lower price) and taking 1/6 of the stake out after every hold from Sela so I'll end with small profit at 6-6 if it goes to there. If the red will be small in 1st set i'll repeat the process in 2nd set. Maybe a 3-setter. TB to be played.
Straight bets:
Baghdatis@1.73, lost -1.00
Cilic@1.21, won 0.21
G.Melzer@1.45, won 0.45
Ram@1.36, won 0.36
Ramos@1.51, lost -1.00
Dolgopolov@1.26, won 0.26
Royg@3.03, lost -1.00
Lino@1.79, won 0.79
Seppi@2.47, lost -1.00
Kamke@2.84, lost -1.00
V.Williams@1.63, won 0.63
Navarro@1.87, lost -1.00
Jankovic@6.50, lost -1.00
Ilhan@1.14, won 0.14
Muller@1.37, won 0.37
Pouille@1.48, won 0.48
TOTAL: -3.31
18. 2. 14
Spot on
Heya.
I'm very glad that all 4 of my previews were spot on yesterday and I hope you did get something out of them. Still straight bets are in big decline last few days and probably high time i hit a winning day again.
Marseille (ATP, indoor hard)
14.00 - Mahut - Scheeper (1.30/3.45) - Match of two French players will definitely give us some decent fight and both will be very motivated for this. Mahut just recently won doubles (partnering with Llodra) in Rotterdam, but I believe that will not make him too fatigued. Starting odds already look tempting for laying, but as Scheeper isn't producing results lately i'll be waiting if Mahut can go break up as then we'll have tons of value in laying him as the price will move towards the set price. I'm going for a lay on Mahut break up or set up as I don't see that as game over and break from Scheeper would make the game pretty even. 3-sets.
Dubai (WTA, hard court)
12.30 - Safarova - Jankovic (2.57/1.49) - Safarova is my favorite to win this game, if not exactly win, I see her taking a set at least if she'll be focused and motivated (I don't see why not). Odds are almost a gift as I see this game at least fifty-fifty. Safarova will get a couple of free points on serve while Jankovic will give some free points away with double faults. This small margin could decide who will win. Of course Jankovic is a better athlete but she can also have some really bad moments of tennis at time. I'm going for a lay from the start with option to relay (exiting with red if in trouble) if Jankovic will go break up early. 3-sets, Safarova.
Rio de Janeiro (WTA, clay)
20.30 - Zakopalova - Espinosa (1.31/3.33) - Huuh, I don't see many reasons why Zakopalova is below 1.40 vs a decent clay courter who showed a good display in 1st round. Zakopalova will definitely not have an easy route to win this match and 3-sets look like almost certain to me here. I'll go simply laying Zako from the start with full-stake and adding full-stake if she breaks first as I believe there will many breaks and break backs. 3-sets.
Rio de Janeiro (ATP, clay)
00.30 - Delbonis - Ferrer (7.65/1.07) - Motivation, focus and giving his best shouldn't be problem tonight from Delbonis. If he'll be firing serves as he can and be holding his serves easily I believe Delbonis will sooner or later get his chance on Ferrer's serve. He needs to make a break early in the set to have realistic chances for taking the 1st set. Lay from the start and manage a free-bet on Delbonis if he'll at least hold until 3-3. Switch to Ferrer if Delbonis will win 1st set. 3-sets.
Delray Beach (ATP, hard court)
18.30 - Anderson - Karlovic (1.63/2.21) - As two serves play each other here and one is around 1.70 favorite i'll use some strategy that will work well if both will be holding well. I'll go for a lay on favorite (Anderson) from the start and hope Karlovic can serve out his games and maybe get a chance on receiving side. If not i'll exit with small profit before tb. I'll use the same strategy again in 2nd serve while the liability will be lower ,but chances will be the same. 3-sets,tie-break.
Straight bets:
Ilhan@1.41, won 0.41
Kravchuk@1.36, lost -1.00
V.Williams@2.28, won 1.28
Safarova@2.87, lost -1.00
Flipkens@2.13, lost -1.00
Uytvanck@1.84, lost -1.00
Pfizenmaier@1.66, lost -1.00
Espinosa@3.69, lost -1.00
Andujar@1.68, void
Buchnana@2.98, lost -1.00
Espinosa@3.69, lost -1.00
Puetz@2.09, lost -1.00
TOTAL: -7.31
I'm very glad that all 4 of my previews were spot on yesterday and I hope you did get something out of them. Still straight bets are in big decline last few days and probably high time i hit a winning day again.
Marseille (ATP, indoor hard)
14.00 - Mahut - Scheeper (1.30/3.45) - Match of two French players will definitely give us some decent fight and both will be very motivated for this. Mahut just recently won doubles (partnering with Llodra) in Rotterdam, but I believe that will not make him too fatigued. Starting odds already look tempting for laying, but as Scheeper isn't producing results lately i'll be waiting if Mahut can go break up as then we'll have tons of value in laying him as the price will move towards the set price. I'm going for a lay on Mahut break up or set up as I don't see that as game over and break from Scheeper would make the game pretty even. 3-sets.
Dubai (WTA, hard court)
12.30 - Safarova - Jankovic (2.57/1.49) - Safarova is my favorite to win this game, if not exactly win, I see her taking a set at least if she'll be focused and motivated (I don't see why not). Odds are almost a gift as I see this game at least fifty-fifty. Safarova will get a couple of free points on serve while Jankovic will give some free points away with double faults. This small margin could decide who will win. Of course Jankovic is a better athlete but she can also have some really bad moments of tennis at time. I'm going for a lay from the start with option to relay (exiting with red if in trouble) if Jankovic will go break up early. 3-sets, Safarova.
Rio de Janeiro (WTA, clay)
20.30 - Zakopalova - Espinosa (1.31/3.33) - Huuh, I don't see many reasons why Zakopalova is below 1.40 vs a decent clay courter who showed a good display in 1st round. Zakopalova will definitely not have an easy route to win this match and 3-sets look like almost certain to me here. I'll go simply laying Zako from the start with full-stake and adding full-stake if she breaks first as I believe there will many breaks and break backs. 3-sets.
Rio de Janeiro (ATP, clay)
00.30 - Delbonis - Ferrer (7.65/1.07) - Motivation, focus and giving his best shouldn't be problem tonight from Delbonis. If he'll be firing serves as he can and be holding his serves easily I believe Delbonis will sooner or later get his chance on Ferrer's serve. He needs to make a break early in the set to have realistic chances for taking the 1st set. Lay from the start and manage a free-bet on Delbonis if he'll at least hold until 3-3. Switch to Ferrer if Delbonis will win 1st set. 3-sets.
Delray Beach (ATP, hard court)
18.30 - Anderson - Karlovic (1.63/2.21) - As two serves play each other here and one is around 1.70 favorite i'll use some strategy that will work well if both will be holding well. I'll go for a lay on favorite (Anderson) from the start and hope Karlovic can serve out his games and maybe get a chance on receiving side. If not i'll exit with small profit before tb. I'll use the same strategy again in 2nd serve while the liability will be lower ,but chances will be the same. 3-sets,tie-break.
Straight bets:
Ilhan@1.41, won 0.41
Kravchuk@1.36, lost -1.00
V.Williams@2.28, won 1.28
Safarova@2.87, lost -1.00
Flipkens@2.13, lost -1.00
Uytvanck@1.84, lost -1.00
Pfizenmaier@1.66, lost -1.00
Espinosa@3.69, lost -1.00
Andujar@1.68, void
Buchnana@2.98, lost -1.00
Espinosa@3.69, lost -1.00
Puetz@2.09, lost -1.00
TOTAL: -7.31
Some worries
Hello.
My straight bet predictions are having a very bad days and I'm surely not very pleased about that. It's always a new day and better days are about to come.
On trade previews I'll have again 4 main tournaments previews:
Marseille (ATP, indoor hard)
11.00 - Davydenko - Sijsling (2.18/1.65) - Sijsling will run out of energy and will give this win to Davydenko. Davydenko actually didn't played bad vs Benneteau but then he had a funny match vs Olivetti where he wasn't able to hold at crucial moments. I feel Sijsling will not be anywhere near as focused as he was in Rotterdam and will rather have a rest to be well prepared for Dubai. I'll start with a lay of Sijsling from the start and it'll be clear very fast how prepared Sijsling is for this match. In case we we'll have tough battle and Sijsling wins 1st set i'll lay him again. Davydenko to win.
Dubai (WTA, hard court)
11.00 Cornet - Halep (4.12/1.22) - Halep just recently won a tournament in Doha and she admitted that she had some ankle problems. I would say doctors will advise her to take it easy now, plus she has money plenty of money so why not take a rest in lovely Dubai? Cornet plays like very annoying match, she just never quits. I matter of tennis, Halep is absolutely better, but I have concerns that she'll not play at her best today and will let Cornet win this one. Even retirement will not surprise me. I'm going for a low lay on Halep and staying in. Cornet in 2.
Rio de Janeiro (WTA, clay)
14.00 - Strycova - Pfizenmaier (1.68/2.12) - I rate Pfizenmaier as a slight favorite here as she already played in SA clay courts this year and come to QF. STrycova is also solid on clay, but her aggressive game is more suited to faster courts. Pfizenmaier can produce big shots and will have better timing on slow courts and Strycova's attacks to the net will be more punished as she'll not be so dominant on serve. Of course Strycova is a mental nut so that might as well help Pfizenmaier. I'll personally hope for a break of Strycova early in 1st set then a comeback from Pfizenmaier in 1st or 2nd set. Pfizenmaier in 2 or 3.
Rio De Janeiro (ATP, clay)
16.00 - Almagro - Dolgopolov (1.26/3.75) - Huuh, terribly low odds on Nicolas Almagro who played 2 consecutive semi finals on clay. Dolgopolov is trying hard as well, but he was the unlucky one so far. He has the game to stay with Almagro and I don't see it easy for Almagro tonight. Dolgopolov will surely be highly motivated for this and will want to get some revenge over Almagro. Even thou the odds are excellent to lay from the start I'll wait for Almagro break up and then i'll lay and probably stay in for the entire match. I see Dolgopolov winning a set and if it comes to 1-1 in sets everything can happen so I'm with Dolgo to win the match.
Delray Beach (ATP, hard)
20.30 -Haas - Odesnik (1.26/3.76) - Haas is a defending semi finalist here in Delray and he likes USA hard court tournaments. Even thou this is a small event he is doing quite ok here. Odesnik played a lots of matches recently with quite a high win rate, but all of his opponents were way above 100th place. I believe top 15 with motivation will be too much for Odesnik. Good starting odds, I'm going to take half-stake back on Haas from start and add half if Odesnik gets a break. Haas in 2.
Straight bets:
Pfizenmaier@2.29, won 1.29
Kerber@1.90, lost -1.00
Makarova@12.46, lost -1.00
Kamke@1.29, won 0.29
Vasselin@1.22, won 0.22
Davydenko@2.23, won 1.23
Machado@2.93, lost -1.00
Rola@1.78, won 0.78
Myneni@1.76, lost -1.00
Velotti@2.24, lost -1.00
Kudryavtsev@1.18, won 0.18
Viola@1.32, won 0.32
Stakhovsky@1.94, won 0.94
Chardy@6.94, lost -1.00
Reister@3.05, lost -1.00
Bedene@4.65, lost -1.00
TOTAL: -2.75
My straight bet predictions are having a very bad days and I'm surely not very pleased about that. It's always a new day and better days are about to come.
On trade previews I'll have again 4 main tournaments previews:
Marseille (ATP, indoor hard)
11.00 - Davydenko - Sijsling (2.18/1.65) - Sijsling will run out of energy and will give this win to Davydenko. Davydenko actually didn't played bad vs Benneteau but then he had a funny match vs Olivetti where he wasn't able to hold at crucial moments. I feel Sijsling will not be anywhere near as focused as he was in Rotterdam and will rather have a rest to be well prepared for Dubai. I'll start with a lay of Sijsling from the start and it'll be clear very fast how prepared Sijsling is for this match. In case we we'll have tough battle and Sijsling wins 1st set i'll lay him again. Davydenko to win.
Dubai (WTA, hard court)
11.00 Cornet - Halep (4.12/1.22) - Halep just recently won a tournament in Doha and she admitted that she had some ankle problems. I would say doctors will advise her to take it easy now, plus she has money plenty of money so why not take a rest in lovely Dubai? Cornet plays like very annoying match, she just never quits. I matter of tennis, Halep is absolutely better, but I have concerns that she'll not play at her best today and will let Cornet win this one. Even retirement will not surprise me. I'm going for a low lay on Halep and staying in. Cornet in 2.
Rio de Janeiro (WTA, clay)
14.00 - Strycova - Pfizenmaier (1.68/2.12) - I rate Pfizenmaier as a slight favorite here as she already played in SA clay courts this year and come to QF. STrycova is also solid on clay, but her aggressive game is more suited to faster courts. Pfizenmaier can produce big shots and will have better timing on slow courts and Strycova's attacks to the net will be more punished as she'll not be so dominant on serve. Of course Strycova is a mental nut so that might as well help Pfizenmaier. I'll personally hope for a break of Strycova early in 1st set then a comeback from Pfizenmaier in 1st or 2nd set. Pfizenmaier in 2 or 3.
Rio De Janeiro (ATP, clay)
16.00 - Almagro - Dolgopolov (1.26/3.75) - Huuh, terribly low odds on Nicolas Almagro who played 2 consecutive semi finals on clay. Dolgopolov is trying hard as well, but he was the unlucky one so far. He has the game to stay with Almagro and I don't see it easy for Almagro tonight. Dolgopolov will surely be highly motivated for this and will want to get some revenge over Almagro. Even thou the odds are excellent to lay from the start I'll wait for Almagro break up and then i'll lay and probably stay in for the entire match. I see Dolgopolov winning a set and if it comes to 1-1 in sets everything can happen so I'm with Dolgo to win the match.
Delray Beach (ATP, hard)
20.30 -Haas - Odesnik (1.26/3.76) - Haas is a defending semi finalist here in Delray and he likes USA hard court tournaments. Even thou this is a small event he is doing quite ok here. Odesnik played a lots of matches recently with quite a high win rate, but all of his opponents were way above 100th place. I believe top 15 with motivation will be too much for Odesnik. Good starting odds, I'm going to take half-stake back on Haas from start and add half if Odesnik gets a break. Haas in 2.
Straight bets:
Pfizenmaier@2.29, won 1.29
Kerber@1.90, lost -1.00
Makarova@12.46, lost -1.00
Kamke@1.29, won 0.29
Vasselin@1.22, won 0.22
Davydenko@2.23, won 1.23
Machado@2.93, lost -1.00
Rola@1.78, won 0.78
Myneni@1.76, lost -1.00
Velotti@2.24, lost -1.00
Kudryavtsev@1.18, won 0.18
Viola@1.32, won 0.32
Stakhovsky@1.94, won 0.94
Chardy@6.94, lost -1.00
Reister@3.05, lost -1.00
Bedene@4.65, lost -1.00
TOTAL: -2.75
16. 2. 14
New week and some help needed
Good morning everyone.
Yesterday was a really strange day and most of my predictions were way wrong, especially straight bets took a huge beating yesterday. Certainly it will be better today, I'm quite sure.
HELP NEEDED:
Anyway, first I would like to say, that I'm looking for some volunteer to help me with this new strategy, I'm willing to give him some credits for help and of course I'll give him my strategy away. So If anyone has some time to help me, don't hesitate to get in touch with me (mitja.gruber@gmail.com) and I'll tell you everything you need to know in private.
And here are todays trade-previews:
Dubai (WTA, hard court)
9.30 - Giorgi - Ka. Pliskova (1.65/2.14) - Odds and people have gone absolutely mad about Giorgi just because she beat Petkovic yesterday. Still I don't trust this erratic Italian a bit, she might had a good day yesterday but she usually don't play exactly at the same level for long, because if she would she would be ranked higher then she is. Pliskova is a good server and will not be easily beaten while Giorgi will certainly get in some trouble on her serve, just because of the big amount of df's she is usually producing. Even starting odds look tempting for a lay, but i'll wait and see if Giorgi can go break up or set up then lay her. I expect Pliskova to take the set today.
Rio de Janeiro (ATP, clay)
18.00 -Garcia-Lopez - Klizan (1.68/2.18) - Hmmmh, I don't see Klizan to win this match, but he can certainly give a decent resistance to the Spaniard. Value in my opinion is laying GGL break up as he usually can give breaks back very easy, but don't expect too much. Maybe Klizan to get a set or take the match into the tb. But I don't see GGL cruise-winning this one.
Delray Beach (ATP, hard court)
17.00 - Johnson - Groth (1.39/2.79) - Two big servers meet in last round of qualification for the main draw. Johnson found some form by winning Dallas (CH) two weeks back and he is not struggling anymore vs some unknown kids as he used too. Groth has probably one of the biggest serve in ATP caravan among Karlovic and that should be enough to get him to at least 1 tb. I'll be laying Johnson from the start and adding another lay if Johsnon wins 1st set as I believe Groth can take the match to a TB where i'll exit with some profit. 3-sets, tie-breaks.
Rio de Janeiro (WTA, clay)
16.30 - Kovinic - Bertens (2.05/1.75) - Odds probably right here, while I would make Kovinic as a slight favorite as she has more clay courts practice. Bertens played some ok matches in Budapest previous week, but it was hard court. Bertens isn't good on clay while Kovinic has become pretty usefull and all around player last few months. I see Kovinic getting in front before Bertens will realise she is on court. I'm starting with lay on Bertens and adding if Bertens goes break up. I see Kovinic winning in 2 sets.
Marseille (ATP, indoor hard)
11.00 - Evans - Laaksonen (1.45/2.61) - Evans struggled vs low ranked Marcora who almost kicked him out of the tournament early. Laaksonen had 2 great wins and looks in good form. Odds are just way too low on English player who hasn't done exactly much except that good run in Zagreb. I trust this will be a tight match which will be decided by one break of serve in each set. Value is definitely on Laaksonen. I'm gonna start laying Evans from the start and add some if Evans get the early break else i'll wait for set. Laaksonen to take the set or perhaps the match.
Straight bets:
Ginepri@1.69, lost -1.00
Groth@3.16, lost -1.00
Kovinic@2.11, lost -1.00
Basic@1.77, lost -1.00
Laaksonen@2.56, lost -1.00
Safarova@1.79, won 0.79
Pliskova@2.42, won 1.42
Dustov@2.08. won 1.08
Golubev@1.15, won 0.15
P.Davydenko@6.00, lost -1.00
TOTAL: -2.56
Yesterday was a really strange day and most of my predictions were way wrong, especially straight bets took a huge beating yesterday. Certainly it will be better today, I'm quite sure.
HELP NEEDED:
Anyway, first I would like to say, that I'm looking for some volunteer to help me with this new strategy, I'm willing to give him some credits for help and of course I'll give him my strategy away. So If anyone has some time to help me, don't hesitate to get in touch with me (mitja.gruber@gmail.com) and I'll tell you everything you need to know in private.
And here are todays trade-previews:
Dubai (WTA, hard court)
9.30 - Giorgi - Ka. Pliskova (1.65/2.14) - Odds and people have gone absolutely mad about Giorgi just because she beat Petkovic yesterday. Still I don't trust this erratic Italian a bit, she might had a good day yesterday but she usually don't play exactly at the same level for long, because if she would she would be ranked higher then she is. Pliskova is a good server and will not be easily beaten while Giorgi will certainly get in some trouble on her serve, just because of the big amount of df's she is usually producing. Even starting odds look tempting for a lay, but i'll wait and see if Giorgi can go break up or set up then lay her. I expect Pliskova to take the set today.
Rio de Janeiro (ATP, clay)
18.00 -Garcia-Lopez - Klizan (1.68/2.18) - Hmmmh, I don't see Klizan to win this match, but he can certainly give a decent resistance to the Spaniard. Value in my opinion is laying GGL break up as he usually can give breaks back very easy, but don't expect too much. Maybe Klizan to get a set or take the match into the tb. But I don't see GGL cruise-winning this one.
Delray Beach (ATP, hard court)
17.00 - Johnson - Groth (1.39/2.79) - Two big servers meet in last round of qualification for the main draw. Johnson found some form by winning Dallas (CH) two weeks back and he is not struggling anymore vs some unknown kids as he used too. Groth has probably one of the biggest serve in ATP caravan among Karlovic and that should be enough to get him to at least 1 tb. I'll be laying Johnson from the start and adding another lay if Johsnon wins 1st set as I believe Groth can take the match to a TB where i'll exit with some profit. 3-sets, tie-breaks.
Rio de Janeiro (WTA, clay)
16.30 - Kovinic - Bertens (2.05/1.75) - Odds probably right here, while I would make Kovinic as a slight favorite as she has more clay courts practice. Bertens played some ok matches in Budapest previous week, but it was hard court. Bertens isn't good on clay while Kovinic has become pretty usefull and all around player last few months. I see Kovinic getting in front before Bertens will realise she is on court. I'm starting with lay on Bertens and adding if Bertens goes break up. I see Kovinic winning in 2 sets.
Marseille (ATP, indoor hard)
11.00 - Evans - Laaksonen (1.45/2.61) - Evans struggled vs low ranked Marcora who almost kicked him out of the tournament early. Laaksonen had 2 great wins and looks in good form. Odds are just way too low on English player who hasn't done exactly much except that good run in Zagreb. I trust this will be a tight match which will be decided by one break of serve in each set. Value is definitely on Laaksonen. I'm gonna start laying Evans from the start and add some if Evans get the early break else i'll wait for set. Laaksonen to take the set or perhaps the match.
Straight bets:
Ginepri@1.69, lost -1.00
Groth@3.16, lost -1.00
Kovinic@2.11, lost -1.00
Basic@1.77, lost -1.00
Laaksonen@2.56, lost -1.00
Safarova@1.79, won 0.79
Pliskova@2.42, won 1.42
Dustov@2.08. won 1.08
Golubev@1.15, won 0.15
P.Davydenko@6.00, lost -1.00
TOTAL: -2.56
15. 2. 14
Short break is better then no break
Hi.
And i'm back in working chair again. Today we start a bit early as Dubai qualification matches with pretty decent players is starting at 7.30h already. I'll post 3-4 match previews here and I'll be adding them during the day. Btw, I have been working on some good strategy as well and I'll give it a test today. I want around 10 games of test before I'll put it out into the public.
Dubai (WTA, hard)
7.30 - Knapp - Beck (2.14/1.65) - Knapp had a disappointing run in Doha where she got kicked out by Jankovic while Beck progressed deep but she didn't had to do exactly a lot. Knapp was maybe feeling a bit fatigued because of Davis cup but I believe she is fully fit again. Strong win for her in 1st round is giving me a good feeling. Anyway, Knapp should love the game of Beck and should be able to hit many winners through Beck who is just an average defender. I'll be looking for a small back from the start and adding some more if Beck gets a break or even set up. I believe Knapp wins this in 2.
Update: Awfull... Knapp didn't have a hold of serve through the entire match. Big loss.
9.00 - Petkovic - Giorgi (1.32/3.16) - Even starting odds look a bit tasty here, but I'll skip backing Petkovic from the start. Petkovic is a very constant player who give fight to every player, while Giorgi is one of the most erratic players in the tour. Outcome should be only one: win for Petkovic here, unless Giorgi can find somewhere something special. I'm going deep if Petkovic gets break down in 1st set or loses the 1st set. Petkovic in 2.
Update: Same thing with Petkovic, as she was thrashed from Giorgi.
Marseille (ATP, indoor hard)
13.00 - Giustino - Ward (1.97/1.75) - Ward has not impressed me lately on indoor courts but he had an excellent match on clay vs Querrey in Davis Cup. Giustino is enjoying and playing some of his best tennis lately and has already won vs Ward on hard courts last year. Giustino is ok server and he hasn't have problems if the ball is in play as well. Small lay on Ward from the start and adding up if he goes in front. I see Giustino taking a set for sure.
Update: Giustino was struggling all the way and Ward was cruising. Ward won in 2.
Rio de Janeiero (WTA, clay)
16.00 - Glushko - Burnett (2.57/1.45) - No reason at all why Burnett should be so heavy favorite here against Glushko. Looks like a complete 50%/50% match to me, but as one of those two will need to go in front sooner or later I'll hope that will be Burnett and that would as well trigger my lay of laying Burnett at below 1.30. I see Glushko winning a set and perhaps a match.
Update: Glushko was first to be broken in 1st set but she did fight back and won 1st set then lost in 3.
Rio de Janeiero (ATP, clay)
17.00 - Klizan - Alund (2.03/1.70) - Alund is having a strong clay season so far, with a good win over Ramos and took Almagro to 3-sets. Klizan played his first match and beat Hocevar (Brazilian) in 3. Everything close to 2.00 on ALund seems like a nice value to me and i'll take around 1/4 of the stake from the start with an option to lay Klizan break or set up. ALund in 2 or 3.
Update: Tight 2 sets won from Klizan.
Delray beach (ATP, hard court)
21.00 - A.Zverev - Elias (3.04/1.34) - Odds are actually quite nice to take from the start considering what a huge difference it's between those two players. Elias had some quite good weeks behind him and I don't see him losing with all of his experience to this kid who can only serve. I'll wait for a surprise break from Zverev then I might back Elias and make another back if he can lose the set. Elias is good baseline player. Elias in 2.
Update: Elias lost the opening set but managed a fight back to win in 3.
Straight bets:
Zanevska@2.65, won 1.65
Petkovic@1.39, lost -1
Sands@1.57, lost -1
Knapp@1.73, lost -1
Ungur@1.83, lost -1
Teixeira@3.15, lost -1
Giustino@2.16, lost -1
Irigoyen@2.78, lost -1
Glushko@2.80, lost -1
Dutra Silva@2.19, lost -1
Alund@1.68, lost -1
Groth@1.18, won 0.18
Elias@1.41, won 0.41
TOTAL: -7.76
And i'm back in working chair again. Today we start a bit early as Dubai qualification matches with pretty decent players is starting at 7.30h already. I'll post 3-4 match previews here and I'll be adding them during the day. Btw, I have been working on some good strategy as well and I'll give it a test today. I want around 10 games of test before I'll put it out into the public.
Dubai (WTA, hard)
7.30 - Knapp - Beck (2.14/1.65) - Knapp had a disappointing run in Doha where she got kicked out by Jankovic while Beck progressed deep but she didn't had to do exactly a lot. Knapp was maybe feeling a bit fatigued because of Davis cup but I believe she is fully fit again. Strong win for her in 1st round is giving me a good feeling. Anyway, Knapp should love the game of Beck and should be able to hit many winners through Beck who is just an average defender. I'll be looking for a small back from the start and adding some more if Beck gets a break or even set up. I believe Knapp wins this in 2.
Update: Awfull... Knapp didn't have a hold of serve through the entire match. Big loss.
9.00 - Petkovic - Giorgi (1.32/3.16) - Even starting odds look a bit tasty here, but I'll skip backing Petkovic from the start. Petkovic is a very constant player who give fight to every player, while Giorgi is one of the most erratic players in the tour. Outcome should be only one: win for Petkovic here, unless Giorgi can find somewhere something special. I'm going deep if Petkovic gets break down in 1st set or loses the 1st set. Petkovic in 2.
Update: Same thing with Petkovic, as she was thrashed from Giorgi.
Marseille (ATP, indoor hard)
13.00 - Giustino - Ward (1.97/1.75) - Ward has not impressed me lately on indoor courts but he had an excellent match on clay vs Querrey in Davis Cup. Giustino is enjoying and playing some of his best tennis lately and has already won vs Ward on hard courts last year. Giustino is ok server and he hasn't have problems if the ball is in play as well. Small lay on Ward from the start and adding up if he goes in front. I see Giustino taking a set for sure.
Update: Giustino was struggling all the way and Ward was cruising. Ward won in 2.
Rio de Janeiero (WTA, clay)
16.00 - Glushko - Burnett (2.57/1.45) - No reason at all why Burnett should be so heavy favorite here against Glushko. Looks like a complete 50%/50% match to me, but as one of those two will need to go in front sooner or later I'll hope that will be Burnett and that would as well trigger my lay of laying Burnett at below 1.30. I see Glushko winning a set and perhaps a match.
Update: Glushko was first to be broken in 1st set but she did fight back and won 1st set then lost in 3.
Rio de Janeiero (ATP, clay)
17.00 - Klizan - Alund (2.03/1.70) - Alund is having a strong clay season so far, with a good win over Ramos and took Almagro to 3-sets. Klizan played his first match and beat Hocevar (Brazilian) in 3. Everything close to 2.00 on ALund seems like a nice value to me and i'll take around 1/4 of the stake from the start with an option to lay Klizan break or set up. ALund in 2 or 3.
Update: Tight 2 sets won from Klizan.
Delray beach (ATP, hard court)
21.00 - A.Zverev - Elias (3.04/1.34) - Odds are actually quite nice to take from the start considering what a huge difference it's between those two players. Elias had some quite good weeks behind him and I don't see him losing with all of his experience to this kid who can only serve. I'll wait for a surprise break from Zverev then I might back Elias and make another back if he can lose the set. Elias is good baseline player. Elias in 2.
Update: Elias lost the opening set but managed a fight back to win in 3.
Straight bets:
Zanevska@2.65, won 1.65
Petkovic@1.39, lost -1
Sands@1.57, lost -1
Knapp@1.73, lost -1
Ungur@1.83, lost -1
Teixeira@3.15, lost -1
Giustino@2.16, lost -1
Irigoyen@2.78, lost -1
Glushko@2.80, lost -1
Dutra Silva@2.19, lost -1
Alund@1.68, lost -1
Groth@1.18, won 0.18
Elias@1.41, won 0.41
TOTAL: -7.76
Day off
Hello.
I'm having a day off today (i usually take Saturdays or Sundays off), but I'll be again active tommorow, but unlikely full-time. We have plenty of 1st round qualification matches today as well as some CH finals and semi finals and semi finals in main events as well. I'll focus tomorrow on 2nd round of qualification matches as I rarely do trade finals.
So, see you tomorrow and good luck for today.
I'm having a day off today (i usually take Saturdays or Sundays off), but I'll be again active tommorow, but unlikely full-time. We have plenty of 1st round qualification matches today as well as some CH finals and semi finals and semi finals in main events as well. I'll focus tomorrow on 2nd round of qualification matches as I rarely do trade finals.
So, see you tomorrow and good luck for today.
14. 2. 14
Valentine's day
Good day.
Yesterday was a great day which turned into even better as i forgot to take out my 1.06 lay on Li and it turned out Cetkovska won in the end. Nice and unexpected jackpot win for me there. Anyway, not so many matches up today, so we'll need to choose wisely. I decided to do some previews for CH matches as well.
Quimper (CH, indoor hard)
18.30 - Olivetti - Millot (1.63/2.15) - You'll not be able to see plenty of tennis and longer rallies will definitely be very rare here. Millot's task will be to be constant on serve and win his serve easily, while Olivetti will be hitting aces and cruising through his serves. Olivetti has been on courts for two weeks now and he might feel a bit fatigued at this point. If Millot will be staying in he might get a chance or two to get the break (probably not). If not in worst case he should take the match at least into tie-breaks. My strategy is a lay from the start (if Olivetti starts serving i'll wait for the hold) and taking some profit out after every hold from Millot, so I can go with around +10% if it comes to tb. My exit point is BP for Olivetti and i'll relay if Olivetti wins 1st set.
Bergamo (CH, indoor hard)
16.00 - Arnaboldi - Fucsovics (2.11/1.65) - Fucsovics had two nice wins in previous rounds while Arnaboldi cruised through as well. This will be a very good match. Fucsovics is better player on baseline, but will not have so many free points, while Arnaboldi likes to close down the points fast and will have much more free serves. Arnaboldi is left hander. My strategy is to enter if Fucsovics will go break up early in 1st and hope for at least a chance (BP) for Arnaboldi to come back. If break for Fucsovics will come late in 1st set i'll wait for the set and lay then. I see Arnaboldi taking at least a set. 3-setter.
Buenos aires (ATP, clay)
00.00 - Ferrer - Ramos (1.07/8.13) - Hmmmh, Ferrer at below 1.10 really isn't to be trusted, plus he hasn't showed any greatness yet on clay courts. Ramos is in great form here and he might get in front in 1st set. I don't exactly believe Ramos will win for sure, but I see him having chances. I'll lay Ferrer from the start and add half-stake if he goes break up as there will be a lots of time for Ramos to come back. I expect at least a tight match and odds will definitely go above 1.20. 3-sets, Ramos.
Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)
21.00 - Hewitt - Russell (1.25/3.77) - Nice match up here. Usually when they have played RUssell did take the opening set then Hewitt clawed back and found the win. I suspect similar pattern today as Hewitt is a slow start and Russell can exploit weak 2nd serve good. I'm going for a lay of Hewitt from the start and at right time (Russell break up) i'll take my profit and hopefully switch to Hewitt in 2nd set. 3-sets.
Doha (WTA, hard court)
15.00 - Kvitova - Jankovic (2.26/1.62) - Jelena is surely the better player and looks more consistent and less erratic then Petra. Kvitova can suddenly turn from world beater to shit eater in matter of seconds, but she usually has the ability to strike back. I'll wait for low odds on Jelena in 1st set to lay her, as I believe Kvitova can come back and make this match tight. Laying Jelena break or set up. 3-sets.
Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)
19.30 - Cilic - Murray (2.95/1.38) - Nice game for Murray yesterday vs Austrian kid. Watch replay if you have missed that match as it was really worth watching. Murray is leading 10-1 in h2h over Cilic but Cilic has gained some confidence lately and has the better serve here. But I wasn't exactly impressive with Murray lately so I see Cilic getting chances here. I'll get involved if Murray goes break up or after he wins the 1st set as he usually relaxes and let his opponents back into the game. We don't really need a lot, just couple of points for Cilic on Murray serve and we can at least make a free-bet on Cilic who may take a set tonight. 3-sets.
Straight bets:
Kuznetsov@3.15, lost -1.00
Russell@3.98, won +2.98
Ramos@9.81, lost -1.00
Millot@2.31, won +1.31
Berdych@1.35, won +0.35
Grigelis@3.13, lost -1.00
TOTAL: +1.64
Yesterday was a great day which turned into even better as i forgot to take out my 1.06 lay on Li and it turned out Cetkovska won in the end. Nice and unexpected jackpot win for me there. Anyway, not so many matches up today, so we'll need to choose wisely. I decided to do some previews for CH matches as well.
Quimper (CH, indoor hard)
18.30 - Olivetti - Millot (1.63/2.15) - You'll not be able to see plenty of tennis and longer rallies will definitely be very rare here. Millot's task will be to be constant on serve and win his serve easily, while Olivetti will be hitting aces and cruising through his serves. Olivetti has been on courts for two weeks now and he might feel a bit fatigued at this point. If Millot will be staying in he might get a chance or two to get the break (probably not). If not in worst case he should take the match at least into tie-breaks. My strategy is a lay from the start (if Olivetti starts serving i'll wait for the hold) and taking some profit out after every hold from Millot, so I can go with around +10% if it comes to tb. My exit point is BP for Olivetti and i'll relay if Olivetti wins 1st set.
Bergamo (CH, indoor hard)
16.00 - Arnaboldi - Fucsovics (2.11/1.65) - Fucsovics had two nice wins in previous rounds while Arnaboldi cruised through as well. This will be a very good match. Fucsovics is better player on baseline, but will not have so many free points, while Arnaboldi likes to close down the points fast and will have much more free serves. Arnaboldi is left hander. My strategy is to enter if Fucsovics will go break up early in 1st and hope for at least a chance (BP) for Arnaboldi to come back. If break for Fucsovics will come late in 1st set i'll wait for the set and lay then. I see Arnaboldi taking at least a set. 3-setter.
Buenos aires (ATP, clay)
00.00 - Ferrer - Ramos (1.07/8.13) - Hmmmh, Ferrer at below 1.10 really isn't to be trusted, plus he hasn't showed any greatness yet on clay courts. Ramos is in great form here and he might get in front in 1st set. I don't exactly believe Ramos will win for sure, but I see him having chances. I'll lay Ferrer from the start and add half-stake if he goes break up as there will be a lots of time for Ramos to come back. I expect at least a tight match and odds will definitely go above 1.20. 3-sets, Ramos.
Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)
21.00 - Hewitt - Russell (1.25/3.77) - Nice match up here. Usually when they have played RUssell did take the opening set then Hewitt clawed back and found the win. I suspect similar pattern today as Hewitt is a slow start and Russell can exploit weak 2nd serve good. I'm going for a lay of Hewitt from the start and at right time (Russell break up) i'll take my profit and hopefully switch to Hewitt in 2nd set. 3-sets.
Doha (WTA, hard court)
15.00 - Kvitova - Jankovic (2.26/1.62) - Jelena is surely the better player and looks more consistent and less erratic then Petra. Kvitova can suddenly turn from world beater to shit eater in matter of seconds, but she usually has the ability to strike back. I'll wait for low odds on Jelena in 1st set to lay her, as I believe Kvitova can come back and make this match tight. Laying Jelena break or set up. 3-sets.
Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)
19.30 - Cilic - Murray (2.95/1.38) - Nice game for Murray yesterday vs Austrian kid. Watch replay if you have missed that match as it was really worth watching. Murray is leading 10-1 in h2h over Cilic but Cilic has gained some confidence lately and has the better serve here. But I wasn't exactly impressive with Murray lately so I see Cilic getting chances here. I'll get involved if Murray goes break up or after he wins the 1st set as he usually relaxes and let his opponents back into the game. We don't really need a lot, just couple of points for Cilic on Murray serve and we can at least make a free-bet on Cilic who may take a set tonight. 3-sets.
Straight bets:
Kuznetsov@3.15, lost -1.00
Russell@3.98, won +2.98
Ramos@9.81, lost -1.00
Millot@2.31, won +1.31
Berdych@1.35, won +0.35
Grigelis@3.13, lost -1.00
TOTAL: +1.64
13. 2. 14
In hope for a better day
Hello.
Yesterday wasn't the best of days for my predictions, even straight bets suffered a minor loss and some really surprisingly results have occured. I hope today it will be more "normal" day.
Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)
15.30 - Kohlschreiber - Gasquet (2.26/1.62) - Gasquet has done his part of the deal to defend the last year result with an comeback battle over De Bakker. His game wasn't impressive at all in majority of first 2 sets. He then improved at the end. Kohlschreiber had a pretty solid and easy win in 1st round. Kohlschreiber should be hungry for some wins and Gasquet should as well be prepared for Marseille next week where he has far more chances to go deep then here. My plan will be to lay Gasquet from the start with something small and will add some more if Gasquet goes break up and even some more for a set. I'm confident Kohlschreiber can at least get a set tonight. Kohlschreiber in 3.
Update: Trade turned out great, small lay of Gasquet from the start, Gasquet goes break up then we add bigger lay and Kohlschreiber gets back and wins the set and match.
Doha (WTA, hard court)
13.30 - Li - Cetkovska (1.11/6.15) - This looks like a fairly good trade opportunity with small risk and a decent reward. Li is better player if she will stay focused, but she often relaxes a bit when break or set up and her balls start to miss. If Li will have another good start going break up I believe lay under 1.10 is good so you can stay with that probably deep into 2nd set. Of course do take money when odds go up as I believe Li should win in the end but there might be some ups and downs before that. Cetkovska will need to play as she does and try to cut down errors, especially double faults. Li in 3.
Update: Cetkovska didn't actually go behind in 1st set but it was close and odds went below 1.10 on several bp's for Li. Cetkovska won in 3 sets.
Buenos Aires (ATP, clay)
19.30 - Almagro - Traver (1.19/4.48) - Traver is not going to win but he'll make this match very hard for Almagro. So the best way to handle the match is to wait for Almagro to go break up (ideally very fast) and then put a lay on him and you can wait with that lay for the start of 2nd set for sure. Then exit with small red and go for a relay. I believe Traver can at least get back (or has chances) or put his nose in front in 2nd set. Almagro to win in 2 tight sets or 3 sets.
Update: Well, Traver started better and won first set 6-1 and lost two tight sets afterwards.
Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)
21.00 - Kudla - Lu (2.23/1.63) - Market and bookies probably overrated with the Kudla's win over Young (6-1, 6-1). It was Young who was crappy and Kudla wasn't anything special. Lu is coming here a bit rusty, but he showed a big progress this year. He is an old member here at Memphis tournament but lacks results (due to losses to better players). He certainly has chances to go deep here. But he might start a bit rusty and slow, so I'll going just with small back on Lu from start (1/10) and adding if he gets broken or set down as Kudla is the type of player you can easily come back as he isn't a big server. I see Lu winning in 2 or 3.
Update: Kudla went in front but Lu hacked his way back to win it in 3.
Straight bets:
Kohlschreiber@2.35, won +1.35
Berrer@3.03, lost -1.00
Laaksonen@1.87, lost -1.00
Safarova@2.83, lost -1.00
Errani@1.40, won +0.40
Halep@1.26, won +0.26
Corrie@1.95, lost -1.00
Bachinger@1.83, lost -1.00
Chardy@1.87, won +0.87
Lu@1.71, won +0.71
TOTAL: -1.41
Yesterday wasn't the best of days for my predictions, even straight bets suffered a minor loss and some really surprisingly results have occured. I hope today it will be more "normal" day.
Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)
15.30 - Kohlschreiber - Gasquet (2.26/1.62) - Gasquet has done his part of the deal to defend the last year result with an comeback battle over De Bakker. His game wasn't impressive at all in majority of first 2 sets. He then improved at the end. Kohlschreiber had a pretty solid and easy win in 1st round. Kohlschreiber should be hungry for some wins and Gasquet should as well be prepared for Marseille next week where he has far more chances to go deep then here. My plan will be to lay Gasquet from the start with something small and will add some more if Gasquet goes break up and even some more for a set. I'm confident Kohlschreiber can at least get a set tonight. Kohlschreiber in 3.
Update: Trade turned out great, small lay of Gasquet from the start, Gasquet goes break up then we add bigger lay and Kohlschreiber gets back and wins the set and match.
Doha (WTA, hard court)
13.30 - Li - Cetkovska (1.11/6.15) - This looks like a fairly good trade opportunity with small risk and a decent reward. Li is better player if she will stay focused, but she often relaxes a bit when break or set up and her balls start to miss. If Li will have another good start going break up I believe lay under 1.10 is good so you can stay with that probably deep into 2nd set. Of course do take money when odds go up as I believe Li should win in the end but there might be some ups and downs before that. Cetkovska will need to play as she does and try to cut down errors, especially double faults. Li in 3.
Update: Cetkovska didn't actually go behind in 1st set but it was close and odds went below 1.10 on several bp's for Li. Cetkovska won in 3 sets.
Buenos Aires (ATP, clay)
19.30 - Almagro - Traver (1.19/4.48) - Traver is not going to win but he'll make this match very hard for Almagro. So the best way to handle the match is to wait for Almagro to go break up (ideally very fast) and then put a lay on him and you can wait with that lay for the start of 2nd set for sure. Then exit with small red and go for a relay. I believe Traver can at least get back (or has chances) or put his nose in front in 2nd set. Almagro to win in 2 tight sets or 3 sets.
Update: Well, Traver started better and won first set 6-1 and lost two tight sets afterwards.
Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)
21.00 - Kudla - Lu (2.23/1.63) - Market and bookies probably overrated with the Kudla's win over Young (6-1, 6-1). It was Young who was crappy and Kudla wasn't anything special. Lu is coming here a bit rusty, but he showed a big progress this year. He is an old member here at Memphis tournament but lacks results (due to losses to better players). He certainly has chances to go deep here. But he might start a bit rusty and slow, so I'll going just with small back on Lu from start (1/10) and adding if he gets broken or set down as Kudla is the type of player you can easily come back as he isn't a big server. I see Lu winning in 2 or 3.
Update: Kudla went in front but Lu hacked his way back to win it in 3.
Straight bets:
Kohlschreiber@2.35, won +1.35
Berrer@3.03, lost -1.00
Laaksonen@1.87, lost -1.00
Safarova@2.83, lost -1.00
Errani@1.40, won +0.40
Halep@1.26, won +0.26
Corrie@1.95, lost -1.00
Bachinger@1.83, lost -1.00
Chardy@1.87, won +0.87
Lu@1.71, won +0.71
TOTAL: -1.41
12. 2. 14
Just another day
Hello.
I'm running late again, which is really strange as I have been up since 4 in the morning. How time flies, that's just amazing.... I do have plenty of trading behind me for today already and one good swing to my side and I'm done for tonight. Again 4 trades in here for all of you for other matches you can check the spreadsheet.
Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)
14.00 - Del Potro - Monfils (1.46/2.64) - Del Potro is comming back from his medical wrist treatment and he still isn't sure how he is. Monfils had a tough week in Montpellier but he really played amazingly and didn't look injured at all (there were some rumors). On the other hand Monfils isn't defending any points here (he lost last year vs Del Potro) that's why i believe he'll play without pressure while there is big presure on Del Potro as he is defending finalist here. With Monfils good form and playing with no burden on him I believe he can take rusty big boy to the distance. Lay from the start is the only way to go here. Take profit when it feels good for you. I see Monfils winning 1st set then maybe a come back or retirement from Del Potro.
Update: Del Potro in 2 but Monfils had almost won the set. Good trade.
Doha (WTA, hard court)
16.30 - Knapp - Jankovic (3.73/1.26) - Knapp had a good test vs Garcia yesterday and she passed that test well. She did get some rest afterwards and will compete against Jankovic who hasn't had a match since her good run in Australia. Knapp looks in nice form, has big shots, but lacks fitness. Jankovic is a player who will make you run a lot, but on the other hand Jankovic will be rusty and she may start slower. I believe strong start from Knapp is the key for her winning the match. I'll start laying Jankovic from the start and add some if she goes in front early in the match. Knapp to win 1st set. 3-setter.
Update: Huge mistake here. Jankovic cruised over Knapp.
Buenos aires (ATP, clay)
16.00 - Traver - Hidalgo (1.37/2.95) - Odds are probably spot on here. Traver beat Hidalgo 4 times in a row on clay quite easily (8:1 in sets). But odds are way too low here to back Traver, so strategy is to wait if Hidalgo can go break up or even set up vs Traver, as I don't see him holding for long with his crappy serve for clay standards. I see Traver winning in 2 sets again.
Update: Traver wasn't broken but the odds went up.
Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)
19.30 - Young - Kudla (1.51/2.50) - Young has beaten Kudla 5 times in a row. It's true that all 5 matches happened before his decline, but anyway. He looks to found some form again and Kudla is just a baseliner who will need to play every point vs Young. Young will get some free points from time to time with the serve and that should be the difference. I'm going with a small back on Young from the start and adding full stake if Kudla will go break up or set up. Young in 2 or 3.
Update: Uuuuh, 6-1, 6-1 for Kudla, I was very very surprised to see that.
Straight bets:
Young@1.57, lost -1.00
Berlocq@1.57, lost -1.00
Sands@1.74, lost -1.00
Knapp@4.02, lost -1.00
V.Williams@1.89, lost -1.00
Cetkovska@1.90, won +0.90
Monfils@2.85, lost -1.00
Haas@1.75, won +0.75
Muller@1.33, won +0.33
Basic@2.35, lost -1.00
Struff@1.43, won +0.43
Arnadboldi@1.86, won +0.86
Velotti@2.24, won +1.24
Chiudinelli@1.49, lost -1.00
Donskoy@2.11, won +1.11
Bozoljac@2.10, won +1.10
Nedovyesov@1.39, won +0.39
Kudryavtsev@1.82, lost -1.00
TOTAL: -1,89
I'm running late again, which is really strange as I have been up since 4 in the morning. How time flies, that's just amazing.... I do have plenty of trading behind me for today already and one good swing to my side and I'm done for tonight. Again 4 trades in here for all of you for other matches you can check the spreadsheet.
Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)
14.00 - Del Potro - Monfils (1.46/2.64) - Del Potro is comming back from his medical wrist treatment and he still isn't sure how he is. Monfils had a tough week in Montpellier but he really played amazingly and didn't look injured at all (there were some rumors). On the other hand Monfils isn't defending any points here (he lost last year vs Del Potro) that's why i believe he'll play without pressure while there is big presure on Del Potro as he is defending finalist here. With Monfils good form and playing with no burden on him I believe he can take rusty big boy to the distance. Lay from the start is the only way to go here. Take profit when it feels good for you. I see Monfils winning 1st set then maybe a come back or retirement from Del Potro.
Update: Del Potro in 2 but Monfils had almost won the set. Good trade.
Doha (WTA, hard court)
16.30 - Knapp - Jankovic (3.73/1.26) - Knapp had a good test vs Garcia yesterday and she passed that test well. She did get some rest afterwards and will compete against Jankovic who hasn't had a match since her good run in Australia. Knapp looks in nice form, has big shots, but lacks fitness. Jankovic is a player who will make you run a lot, but on the other hand Jankovic will be rusty and she may start slower. I believe strong start from Knapp is the key for her winning the match. I'll start laying Jankovic from the start and add some if she goes in front early in the match. Knapp to win 1st set. 3-setter.
Update: Huge mistake here. Jankovic cruised over Knapp.
Buenos aires (ATP, clay)
16.00 - Traver - Hidalgo (1.37/2.95) - Odds are probably spot on here. Traver beat Hidalgo 4 times in a row on clay quite easily (8:1 in sets). But odds are way too low here to back Traver, so strategy is to wait if Hidalgo can go break up or even set up vs Traver, as I don't see him holding for long with his crappy serve for clay standards. I see Traver winning in 2 sets again.
Update: Traver wasn't broken but the odds went up.
Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)
19.30 - Young - Kudla (1.51/2.50) - Young has beaten Kudla 5 times in a row. It's true that all 5 matches happened before his decline, but anyway. He looks to found some form again and Kudla is just a baseliner who will need to play every point vs Young. Young will get some free points from time to time with the serve and that should be the difference. I'm going with a small back on Young from the start and adding full stake if Kudla will go break up or set up. Young in 2 or 3.
Update: Uuuuh, 6-1, 6-1 for Kudla, I was very very surprised to see that.
Straight bets:
Young@1.57, lost -1.00
Berlocq@1.57, lost -1.00
Sands@1.74, lost -1.00
Knapp@4.02, lost -1.00
V.Williams@1.89, lost -1.00
Cetkovska@1.90, won +0.90
Monfils@2.85, lost -1.00
Haas@1.75, won +0.75
Muller@1.33, won +0.33
Basic@2.35, lost -1.00
Struff@1.43, won +0.43
Arnadboldi@1.86, won +0.86
Velotti@2.24, won +1.24
Chiudinelli@1.49, lost -1.00
Donskoy@2.11, won +1.11
Bozoljac@2.10, won +1.10
Nedovyesov@1.39, won +0.39
Kudryavtsev@1.82, lost -1.00
TOTAL: -1,89
11. 2. 14
Busy Tuesday
Hello.
Shit loads of matches today. I'll skip any introduction words and go straight to trading picks. 1 for each tournament, if you want others you can see them in my spreadsheet or ask me. I'll be away from 15.30 to 18.00 CET.
Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)
14.00 Sijsling - Youzhny (1.49/2.55) - Well, Youzhny was clearly feeling ill in Zagreb that's why that strange loss to Phau came. It's not clear if he has recovered fully yet, but he is facing a home player Sijsling this year. Youzhny has no points to defend here and i'm sure Sijsling will give his best here. I'm going for a lay from the start in case Youzhny isn't feeling great. Lay start Youzhny and relay if he wins 1st set as he might go out of energy if he really was sick recently. Sijsling to win in 2 or retirement.
Doha (WTA, hard court)
13.30 - Schiavone - Rybarikova (1.93/1.82) - Schiavone was a bit unlucky in her recent tournaments with a draw, as she usually did get a winner of the tournament in first round. This time she faces someone who'll certainly not win Doha this year, so she has the fair chances to proceed. I watched Rybarikova in couple of games lately and she didn't exactly inspire me, but she might get a better start and give us a nice opportunity to lay Rybarikova. I'm laying Rybarikova break up and set up. I see Schiavone winning a set and likely a match as well as the courts are slow.
Buenos aires (ATP, clay)
16.00 - Traver - Hidalgo (1.37/2.95) - Odds are probably spot on here. Traver beat Hidalgo 4 times in a row on clay quite easily (8:1 in sets). But odds are way too low here to back Traver, so strategy is to wait if Hidalgo can go break up or even set up vs Traver, as I don't see him holding for long with his crappy serve for clay standards. I see Traver winning in 2 sets again.
Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)
19.30 - Lacko - B.Becker (1.63/2.23) - I see no obvious or good reason why Lacko should be favorite for this match. Becker is better ranked, better played in previous tournament and he prefers indoor courts. I believe this is enough for me. Full stake lay on Lacko and a relay if Lacko wins 1st set. Becker in 2 or 3.
Straight bets:
Nava@1.43, won +0.43
Giustino@2.60, won +1.60
Desein@2.71
Mertl@1.48
Istomin@2.36
Sijsling@2.66
Schiavone@2.06
Voegele@2.63
Knapp@1.63
Petkovic@1.29
Giraldo@1.44
Garin@2.85
Traver@1.38
Alund@1.99
Becker@2.38
Querrey@1.30
Shit loads of matches today. I'll skip any introduction words and go straight to trading picks. 1 for each tournament, if you want others you can see them in my spreadsheet or ask me. I'll be away from 15.30 to 18.00 CET.
Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)
14.00 Sijsling - Youzhny (1.49/2.55) - Well, Youzhny was clearly feeling ill in Zagreb that's why that strange loss to Phau came. It's not clear if he has recovered fully yet, but he is facing a home player Sijsling this year. Youzhny has no points to defend here and i'm sure Sijsling will give his best here. I'm going for a lay from the start in case Youzhny isn't feeling great. Lay start Youzhny and relay if he wins 1st set as he might go out of energy if he really was sick recently. Sijsling to win in 2 or retirement.
Doha (WTA, hard court)
13.30 - Schiavone - Rybarikova (1.93/1.82) - Schiavone was a bit unlucky in her recent tournaments with a draw, as she usually did get a winner of the tournament in first round. This time she faces someone who'll certainly not win Doha this year, so she has the fair chances to proceed. I watched Rybarikova in couple of games lately and she didn't exactly inspire me, but she might get a better start and give us a nice opportunity to lay Rybarikova. I'm laying Rybarikova break up and set up. I see Schiavone winning a set and likely a match as well as the courts are slow.
Buenos aires (ATP, clay)
16.00 - Traver - Hidalgo (1.37/2.95) - Odds are probably spot on here. Traver beat Hidalgo 4 times in a row on clay quite easily (8:1 in sets). But odds are way too low here to back Traver, so strategy is to wait if Hidalgo can go break up or even set up vs Traver, as I don't see him holding for long with his crappy serve for clay standards. I see Traver winning in 2 sets again.
Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)
19.30 - Lacko - B.Becker (1.63/2.23) - I see no obvious or good reason why Lacko should be favorite for this match. Becker is better ranked, better played in previous tournament and he prefers indoor courts. I believe this is enough for me. Full stake lay on Lacko and a relay if Lacko wins 1st set. Becker in 2 or 3.
Straight bets:
Nava@1.43, won +0.43
Giustino@2.60, won +1.60
Desein@2.71
Mertl@1.48
Istomin@2.36
Sijsling@2.66
Schiavone@2.06
Voegele@2.63
Knapp@1.63
Petkovic@1.29
Giraldo@1.44
Garin@2.85
Traver@1.38
Alund@1.99
Becker@2.38
Querrey@1.30
10. 2. 14
Crowded
Hello.
My time is already running up, so I'll post just my "best trade" from every ATP/WTA tournament. I had decent profit yesterday so I ended my work earlier, I hope the same for today.
In case you want to hear about my thoughts for other matches you can find me on TradeShark chat and you can naturally ask me about others, as I have all of them in spreadsheet. Good luck.
Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)
11.00 - Mathieu - Dodig (2.97/1.38) - Even thou I never really liked Mathieu it's clearly visible that Dodig is way too strong favorite considering the odds for this match. Mathieu is playing decent tennis and was way better then big serving Brands. Dodig is a fighter, has also strong serve (not as much as Brands) but I feel Mathieu can at least equally compete against Dodig. Dodig really hasn't showed the right face this year. I'm laying Dodig from the start with full-stake with option to add half-stake if Dodig is set or break up and search for scratch. Mathieu can at least win a set.
Update: Wow, who would believe that comeback. Dodig lost just few points on serve before 2nd set TB started, but then it was Mathieu all over him. Mathieu won in 3.
Doha (WTA, hard court)
13.30 - Peng - Petrova (2.19/1.65) - There is no real logic behind why Petrova should be favorite against Peng on this match. She hasn't really done anything remarkable after her come back from injury and she struggled a bit in qualifications even thou she played quite easy players. If Petrova doesn't have her serve she is just an ordinary player and Peng can deal players like that. Peng will need to play smart and I believe she can take the match here. I'm laying Petrova from the start and adding up if she breaks first.
Update: Peng draw first blood in 1st set but was immediately broken back, the game went into tb which had been won by PEng. 2nd set saw plenty of breaks and eventually Peng did get one hold to win the match in 2.
Buenos Aires (ATP, clay)
16.00 - Garin - G.Melzer (1.87/1.84) - Nice test for youngster Garin again. Odds are probably right, but I feel Garin is way better player. This time I'll not go for Garin from the start but I'll rather wait if Melzer can get another better start and then relax a bit and let Garin back in. So, laying Melzer break or set up and hoping Garin can win a set. 3-setter, Garin.
Update: Melzer won 1st set and then the fightback from Garin started, but Garin needed exactly 10 break chances to get first break. He did win in 3.
Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)
18.00 - Goffin - McGee (1.32/3.14) - Goffin started pretty poor vs Ginepri then he woke up and won quite easily (6-1, 6-4). McGee is currently a player in form, but I believe he started to fade a little already. HE struggled a lot vs Novikov and even lost a set vs him. I'm hoping McGee can start better (maybe go break up) and we can get 1.50/1.60 which is a good price to take Goffin. Backing Goffin break down or laying Mcgee set up. I don't see Mcgee winning in 2. Goffin in 2 probably.
Update: Goffin raced away in 1st set but had some trouble in 2nd set but won it anyway.
Straight bets (some have already started)
Huang@1.87, won +0.87
Chiudinelli@3.22, won +2.22
Androic@2.34, lost -1.00
Ungur@2.35, lost -1.00
Muller@1.51, won +0.51
Mathieu@3.24, won+2.34
Gallung@2.93, lost -1.00,
V.Williams@1.28, won +0.28,
Peng@2.29, won +1.29
Garin@1.90, won +0.90,
Robredo@1.35, won +0.35
Goffin@1.36, won +0.36
Elias@3.21, lost -1.00
TOTAL: +5.12
My time is already running up, so I'll post just my "best trade" from every ATP/WTA tournament. I had decent profit yesterday so I ended my work earlier, I hope the same for today.
In case you want to hear about my thoughts for other matches you can find me on TradeShark chat and you can naturally ask me about others, as I have all of them in spreadsheet. Good luck.
Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)
11.00 - Mathieu - Dodig (2.97/1.38) - Even thou I never really liked Mathieu it's clearly visible that Dodig is way too strong favorite considering the odds for this match. Mathieu is playing decent tennis and was way better then big serving Brands. Dodig is a fighter, has also strong serve (not as much as Brands) but I feel Mathieu can at least equally compete against Dodig. Dodig really hasn't showed the right face this year. I'm laying Dodig from the start with full-stake with option to add half-stake if Dodig is set or break up and search for scratch. Mathieu can at least win a set.
Update: Wow, who would believe that comeback. Dodig lost just few points on serve before 2nd set TB started, but then it was Mathieu all over him. Mathieu won in 3.
Doha (WTA, hard court)
13.30 - Peng - Petrova (2.19/1.65) - There is no real logic behind why Petrova should be favorite against Peng on this match. She hasn't really done anything remarkable after her come back from injury and she struggled a bit in qualifications even thou she played quite easy players. If Petrova doesn't have her serve she is just an ordinary player and Peng can deal players like that. Peng will need to play smart and I believe she can take the match here. I'm laying Petrova from the start and adding up if she breaks first.
Update: Peng draw first blood in 1st set but was immediately broken back, the game went into tb which had been won by PEng. 2nd set saw plenty of breaks and eventually Peng did get one hold to win the match in 2.
Buenos Aires (ATP, clay)
16.00 - Garin - G.Melzer (1.87/1.84) - Nice test for youngster Garin again. Odds are probably right, but I feel Garin is way better player. This time I'll not go for Garin from the start but I'll rather wait if Melzer can get another better start and then relax a bit and let Garin back in. So, laying Melzer break or set up and hoping Garin can win a set. 3-setter, Garin.
Update: Melzer won 1st set and then the fightback from Garin started, but Garin needed exactly 10 break chances to get first break. He did win in 3.
Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)
18.00 - Goffin - McGee (1.32/3.14) - Goffin started pretty poor vs Ginepri then he woke up and won quite easily (6-1, 6-4). McGee is currently a player in form, but I believe he started to fade a little already. HE struggled a lot vs Novikov and even lost a set vs him. I'm hoping McGee can start better (maybe go break up) and we can get 1.50/1.60 which is a good price to take Goffin. Backing Goffin break down or laying Mcgee set up. I don't see Mcgee winning in 2. Goffin in 2 probably.
Update: Goffin raced away in 1st set but had some trouble in 2nd set but won it anyway.
Straight bets (some have already started)
Huang@1.87, won +0.87
Chiudinelli@3.22, won +2.22
Androic@2.34, lost -1.00
Ungur@2.35, lost -1.00
Muller@1.51, won +0.51
Mathieu@3.24, won
Gallung@2.93, lost -1.00,
V.Williams@1.28, won +0.28,
Peng@2.29, won +1.29
Garin@1.90, won +0.90,
Robredo@1.35, won +0.35
Goffin@1.36, won +0.36
Elias@3.21, lost -1.00
TOTAL: +5.12
9. 2. 14
New tournaments and some finals
Hello.
And I'm back into working mode again. Two days completely away from trading and thinking about odds and chances and breaks and stuff like that has really done me good. We have plenty of tournaments in upcoming week, but today there are only qualification matches and finals. And as I'm usually not doing any previews for final matches (Zagreb, Montpellier, Vina Del Mar), there will be some Rotterdam matches that interest me.
Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)
11.00 - Brands - Mathieu (1.53/2.35) - Odds are definitely not good, but if you stick with Brands you need to stick with him before he is break up as afterwards all the value will be gone. It's true that Mathieu won last h2h matches, but that was years ago. I believe Brands will be too tough for Mathieu too break and Brands may get more chances. I'll go for half-stake back on Brands with option to lay Mathieu set up. In case Brands wins 1st set i'll put some profit on laying Brands and hope for a 3rd set or at least 2nd set TB. Brands in 2 or 3.
Update: Brands started first set really bad but then he somehow found his serve, but it wasn't enough as Mathieu won in 3 sets.
12.00 - Kubot - Berrer (2.15/1.63) - Really hard to say. I believe Kubot is underestimated on indoor hards as I see him as a quite decent player. Berrer could be exhausted from Zagreb, but he had some time to rest and his 1st round match was more or less walkover. I want to see Berrer break up in 1st set as there will be plenty of time for Kubot to come back (even 1 bp would be good enough). I'm going for Berrer break up take some loss if Kubot will not come back and then small lay also in 2nd set if BErrer will win it. 3-setter.
Update: Berrer with a break up then Kubot did break back hold and get 2 bps of his own and that was more then enough for a nice swing.
Doha (WTA, hard)
13.30 - Hsieh - Majeric (1.76/1.96) - Last match few days ago went into Majeric's way but Hsieh was then 1.33 favorite, now she is on 1.76 so most of the value gone. But Hsieh going break up can get us our value back and that's what i'm waiting. Laying Hsieh break up (in first few games) or wait for Hsieh to win the set is my way to trade this one. Majeric is my favorite (again) to win it.
Update: That was my loss of the day, but still nothing drastically. Hsieh won in 2 sets.
13.30 - Pironkova -Dulgheru (1.29/3.28) - I don't see Pironkova will have another good tournament here... SHe already struggled a bit in 1st round of qualifications and Dulgheru may be a tricky opponent. Pironkova break up is definitely a lay for me, especially if it's early in the set with option to lay some more if Pironkova wins 1st set. 3-setter.
Update: Nice profit here for me as I layed Piro at below 1.10 and went mostly out around 1.40's.
13.30 - Rodionova - Cetkovska (1.93/1.78) - Neither of those two has impressed me lately with their play (especially not Cetkovska). I do slightly favor Rodionova but not on starting odds. I'm going with cheap 1/8 lay if Cetkovska will win 1st set and adding another 1/8 if Cetkovska goes break ahead in 2nd set. 3-sets.
Update: Cruiser from Cetkovska and then a retirement from Rodionova late in 2nd set.
15.00 - Lucic - Kovinic (1.79/1.91) - Lucic playing pretty bad tennis at the moment, plus her 1st serve percentage isn't good as well. Kovinic looks in solid form and i'll go with her from the start. I'm gonna lay Lucic from the start and add some if she goes break up, I see Kovinic winning in 2 unless Lucic will not drastically increase her serve game and decrease the errors.
Update: Kovinic had 2 good starts of the set but lost both of them.
15.00 - Zanevska - Johansson (1.85/1.85) - Johansson climbing up from a severe decline in year 2013. But she still can go back to her own self and make over 10 double faults in a match. She'll have much more problems to hold her serve as Zanevska today, but i want to see Johansson getting break up (early in set) to lay her on lower odds and I tend to add some also in 2nd set. Zanevska in 2 or 3 sets.
Update: Many breaks and swing here, but i stayed just for one and did +20% and both and moved on. Zanevska won in 3.
Buenos Aires (ATP, clay)
15.00 - Olivo - Hidalgo (2.45/1.50) - I believe Hidalgo is the better player at the moment. Olivo may of course start better again as he is used to beat Hidalgo (won last h2h match), but i don't see it will be easy for Olivo to keep his nose in front once he will get in front. So i'll wait for Olivo break or set up and then lay Olivo or back Hidalgo on better odds. Hidalgo in 3 sets. My strategy is to get some green on Hidalgo and try to get 0 on Olivo as soon as possible.
Update: Layed Olivo around 1.80 and left profit on Hidalgo when he did break back and went in front. Hidalgo won in 3 sets.
16.30 - Garin - Londero (1.68/2.09) - Londero is higher ranked on ATP rank, but I believe young player from Chile is enjoying one of his best moments and is a big prospect for the tennis in future years. He'll be probably way too strong for Londero tonight ,even thou Londero is playing at home. I'll go half-stake on Garin from start with option to add another half if he goes break down. Garin in 2 or 3.
Update: Garin started better and was the better player more or less the whole match. He won in 2.
16.30 - M.Gonzalez - Andreozzi (1.92/1.79) - Probably Andreozzi is the right favorite here since Maximo was in bad form lately and his 1st round win wasn't inspiring at all. Since this is the match vs two Argentians who know each other i'll leave 1st set to go by and lay Gonzalez if he'll win 1st set. I believe Andreozzi should win, hopefully in 3.
Update: Quite easy win from Maximo in 2 sets.
16.30 - G.Melzer - Souto (1.55/2.34) - In my opinion Melzer shouldn't have problems vs Souto here. Backing Melzer from start and adding if he gets broken or will be set down. Melzer in 2.
Update: Melzer raced away in first set bagelling Souta and won 2nd in tie-break.
Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)
17.00 - Novikov - McGee (3.68/1.24) - Novikov can give a fight to McGee (nice recent form) but he is probably not there yet to upset him. Lower lay (Mcgee break or set up) may give us a good chance as I don't see Novikov will completely give up if behind as he has nothing to lose. (use half-stakes)
18.30 - Kuznetsov - Bangoura (1.23/3.77) - I can't really go with Alex Kuznetsov since i watched him last 2 or 3 times and he really sucked. Bangoura is still a lower ranked American player which Kuznetsov should deal with easily, but I'm going to have a try here with a lay from the start on Kuznetsov and relaying break up. Maybe Bangoura can put his nose in front.
18.30 - Salisbury - Elias (6.38/1.09) - This was first serious win for Salisbury in his career. Elias should win this easily but I'll give it a try below 1.10 in first say with reduced stakes. Salisbury may at least fight and Elias is not really hard court player.
Straight bets:
Gasquet@1.82, lost -1.00
Zanevska@2.02, won +1.02
Kudryavtseva@1.32, won +0.32
Rodionova@2.18, lost -1.00
Majeric@2.03, lost -1.00
Brands@1.62, lost -1.00
G.Melzer@1.61, won +0.61
Andreozzi@1.82, lost -1.00
Hidalgo@1.56, won +0.56
Garin@1.71, won +0.71
Haas@2.66, lost -1.00
TOTAL: -2.78
And I'm back into working mode again. Two days completely away from trading and thinking about odds and chances and breaks and stuff like that has really done me good. We have plenty of tournaments in upcoming week, but today there are only qualification matches and finals. And as I'm usually not doing any previews for final matches (Zagreb, Montpellier, Vina Del Mar), there will be some Rotterdam matches that interest me.
Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)
11.00 - Brands - Mathieu (1.53/2.35) - Odds are definitely not good, but if you stick with Brands you need to stick with him before he is break up as afterwards all the value will be gone. It's true that Mathieu won last h2h matches, but that was years ago. I believe Brands will be too tough for Mathieu too break and Brands may get more chances. I'll go for half-stake back on Brands with option to lay Mathieu set up. In case Brands wins 1st set i'll put some profit on laying Brands and hope for a 3rd set or at least 2nd set TB. Brands in 2 or 3.
Update: Brands started first set really bad but then he somehow found his serve, but it wasn't enough as Mathieu won in 3 sets.
12.00 - Kubot - Berrer (2.15/1.63) - Really hard to say. I believe Kubot is underestimated on indoor hards as I see him as a quite decent player. Berrer could be exhausted from Zagreb, but he had some time to rest and his 1st round match was more or less walkover. I want to see Berrer break up in 1st set as there will be plenty of time for Kubot to come back (even 1 bp would be good enough). I'm going for Berrer break up take some loss if Kubot will not come back and then small lay also in 2nd set if BErrer will win it. 3-setter.
Update: Berrer with a break up then Kubot did break back hold and get 2 bps of his own and that was more then enough for a nice swing.
Doha (WTA, hard)
13.30 - Hsieh - Majeric (1.76/1.96) - Last match few days ago went into Majeric's way but Hsieh was then 1.33 favorite, now she is on 1.76 so most of the value gone. But Hsieh going break up can get us our value back and that's what i'm waiting. Laying Hsieh break up (in first few games) or wait for Hsieh to win the set is my way to trade this one. Majeric is my favorite (again) to win it.
Update: That was my loss of the day, but still nothing drastically. Hsieh won in 2 sets.
13.30 - Pironkova -Dulgheru (1.29/3.28) - I don't see Pironkova will have another good tournament here... SHe already struggled a bit in 1st round of qualifications and Dulgheru may be a tricky opponent. Pironkova break up is definitely a lay for me, especially if it's early in the set with option to lay some more if Pironkova wins 1st set. 3-setter.
Update: Nice profit here for me as I layed Piro at below 1.10 and went mostly out around 1.40's.
13.30 - Rodionova - Cetkovska (1.93/1.78) - Neither of those two has impressed me lately with their play (especially not Cetkovska). I do slightly favor Rodionova but not on starting odds. I'm going with cheap 1/8 lay if Cetkovska will win 1st set and adding another 1/8 if Cetkovska goes break ahead in 2nd set. 3-sets.
Update: Cruiser from Cetkovska and then a retirement from Rodionova late in 2nd set.
15.00 - Lucic - Kovinic (1.79/1.91) - Lucic playing pretty bad tennis at the moment, plus her 1st serve percentage isn't good as well. Kovinic looks in solid form and i'll go with her from the start. I'm gonna lay Lucic from the start and add some if she goes break up, I see Kovinic winning in 2 unless Lucic will not drastically increase her serve game and decrease the errors.
Update: Kovinic had 2 good starts of the set but lost both of them.
15.00 - Zanevska - Johansson (1.85/1.85) - Johansson climbing up from a severe decline in year 2013. But she still can go back to her own self and make over 10 double faults in a match. She'll have much more problems to hold her serve as Zanevska today, but i want to see Johansson getting break up (early in set) to lay her on lower odds and I tend to add some also in 2nd set. Zanevska in 2 or 3 sets.
Update: Many breaks and swing here, but i stayed just for one and did +20% and both and moved on. Zanevska won in 3.
Buenos Aires (ATP, clay)
15.00 - Olivo - Hidalgo (2.45/1.50) - I believe Hidalgo is the better player at the moment. Olivo may of course start better again as he is used to beat Hidalgo (won last h2h match), but i don't see it will be easy for Olivo to keep his nose in front once he will get in front. So i'll wait for Olivo break or set up and then lay Olivo or back Hidalgo on better odds. Hidalgo in 3 sets. My strategy is to get some green on Hidalgo and try to get 0 on Olivo as soon as possible.
Update: Layed Olivo around 1.80 and left profit on Hidalgo when he did break back and went in front. Hidalgo won in 3 sets.
16.30 - Garin - Londero (1.68/2.09) - Londero is higher ranked on ATP rank, but I believe young player from Chile is enjoying one of his best moments and is a big prospect for the tennis in future years. He'll be probably way too strong for Londero tonight ,even thou Londero is playing at home. I'll go half-stake on Garin from start with option to add another half if he goes break down. Garin in 2 or 3.
Update: Garin started better and was the better player more or less the whole match. He won in 2.
16.30 - M.Gonzalez - Andreozzi (1.92/1.79) - Probably Andreozzi is the right favorite here since Maximo was in bad form lately and his 1st round win wasn't inspiring at all. Since this is the match vs two Argentians who know each other i'll leave 1st set to go by and lay Gonzalez if he'll win 1st set. I believe Andreozzi should win, hopefully in 3.
Update: Quite easy win from Maximo in 2 sets.
16.30 - G.Melzer - Souto (1.55/2.34) - In my opinion Melzer shouldn't have problems vs Souto here. Backing Melzer from start and adding if he gets broken or will be set down. Melzer in 2.
Update: Melzer raced away in first set bagelling Souta and won 2nd in tie-break.
Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)
17.00 - Novikov - McGee (3.68/1.24) - Novikov can give a fight to McGee (nice recent form) but he is probably not there yet to upset him. Lower lay (Mcgee break or set up) may give us a good chance as I don't see Novikov will completely give up if behind as he has nothing to lose. (use half-stakes)
18.30 - Kuznetsov - Bangoura (1.23/3.77) - I can't really go with Alex Kuznetsov since i watched him last 2 or 3 times and he really sucked. Bangoura is still a lower ranked American player which Kuznetsov should deal with easily, but I'm going to have a try here with a lay from the start on Kuznetsov and relaying break up. Maybe Bangoura can put his nose in front.
18.30 - Salisbury - Elias (6.38/1.09) - This was first serious win for Salisbury in his career. Elias should win this easily but I'll give it a try below 1.10 in first say with reduced stakes. Salisbury may at least fight and Elias is not really hard court player.
Straight bets:
Gasquet@1.82, lost -1.00
Zanevska@2.02, won +1.02
Kudryavtseva@1.32, won +0.32
Rodionova@2.18, lost -1.00
Majeric@2.03, lost -1.00
Brands@1.62, lost -1.00
G.Melzer@1.61, won +0.61
Andreozzi@1.82, lost -1.00
Hidalgo@1.56, won +0.56
Garin@1.71, won +0.71
Haas@2.66, lost -1.00
TOTAL: -2.78
7. 2. 14
Going to Zagreb
Hello.
Just a short post from me today. I'll not be trading today or tommorow (don't expect a blog post tommorow either). I'll do 4 trade previews for my readers anyway. Yesterday was ok day from a trading view, but big let down for straight bets. Expect new post for the new week's tournaments. We'll have a big event in Doha for girls, while ATP caravan will be moving to Rotterdam (big indoor tournament), Buenos Aires (clay) and small USA tournament in Memphis. If Betfair will provide also CH level tournaments again we'll have also 4 HC tournaments (Kolkata, Quimper, Bergamo and Istanbul). It'll be a very tough week, so 2 days of break will do me fine.
Zagreb (indoor hard)
12.00 - Sela - Phau (1.43/2.76) - Odds are really too low here for Sela. Lay from the start on Sela is in order and if Phau will hold together in early games you could take 20-30 ticks for sure and use that in case Sela wins 1st set and relay with that profit for a possible nice profit in Phau gets to 1-1. I'm slightly favoring Sela, but I see a very tight match and a 3-setter.
14.30 - Cilic - Dodig (1.53/2.45) - Two Croatian big boys collide in QF event today. Cilic looks very tight on receiving side and he wasn't getting a lots of chances vs inferior players (Lajovic, Delic). I don't see he'll get many chances vs Dodig as well, so I would go for a lay (half-stake) from the start and hedge out before the tb or if Dodig has a chance for going break up. 3-setter with tie-breaks to be played.
Montpellier (indoor hard)
12.30 - Gicquel - Nieminen (1.48/2.59) - Don't get fooled by H2H matches as last match was 4 years back. Gicquel is enjoying this tournament, he plays solid and his serve is ok. I feel he'll be much more motivated then fatigued Nieminen who'll probably give more chances for himself in doubles match with his new partner Kokkinen. This must be lay from the start as I'm giving Gicquel better chances to a win and odds will revert quickly if Gicquel gets a break up, so you don't want to miss the swing. Lay start with option to relay if Nieminen gets in front in 1st set. And also lay in 2nd set if Jarkko wins. Gicquel in 2 or 3.
14.00 - Monfils - Istomin (1.36/3.07) - It's a bit hard to go against so playful Monfils at the moment. But big value is laying him break up or set up as the prices will be really low and the match will be far from over. I see Istomin taking at least a set and he'll make this match very difficult for Mr. Monfils. Lay Monfils break or set up.
Straight bets:
Kohlscheiber@1.22, lost -1.00
Haas@1.26, won +0.26
Gicquel@2.84, lost -1.00
TOTAL: -1.74
That's all for me today, next post in 2 days. Enjoy your weekend.
Just a short post from me today. I'll not be trading today or tommorow (don't expect a blog post tommorow either). I'll do 4 trade previews for my readers anyway. Yesterday was ok day from a trading view, but big let down for straight bets. Expect new post for the new week's tournaments. We'll have a big event in Doha for girls, while ATP caravan will be moving to Rotterdam (big indoor tournament), Buenos Aires (clay) and small USA tournament in Memphis. If Betfair will provide also CH level tournaments again we'll have also 4 HC tournaments (Kolkata, Quimper, Bergamo and Istanbul). It'll be a very tough week, so 2 days of break will do me fine.
Zagreb (indoor hard)
12.00 - Sela - Phau (1.43/2.76) - Odds are really too low here for Sela. Lay from the start on Sela is in order and if Phau will hold together in early games you could take 20-30 ticks for sure and use that in case Sela wins 1st set and relay with that profit for a possible nice profit in Phau gets to 1-1. I'm slightly favoring Sela, but I see a very tight match and a 3-setter.
14.30 - Cilic - Dodig (1.53/2.45) - Two Croatian big boys collide in QF event today. Cilic looks very tight on receiving side and he wasn't getting a lots of chances vs inferior players (Lajovic, Delic). I don't see he'll get many chances vs Dodig as well, so I would go for a lay (half-stake) from the start and hedge out before the tb or if Dodig has a chance for going break up. 3-setter with tie-breaks to be played.
Montpellier (indoor hard)
12.30 - Gicquel - Nieminen (1.48/2.59) - Don't get fooled by H2H matches as last match was 4 years back. Gicquel is enjoying this tournament, he plays solid and his serve is ok. I feel he'll be much more motivated then fatigued Nieminen who'll probably give more chances for himself in doubles match with his new partner Kokkinen. This must be lay from the start as I'm giving Gicquel better chances to a win and odds will revert quickly if Gicquel gets a break up, so you don't want to miss the swing. Lay start with option to relay if Nieminen gets in front in 1st set. And also lay in 2nd set if Jarkko wins. Gicquel in 2 or 3.
14.00 - Monfils - Istomin (1.36/3.07) - It's a bit hard to go against so playful Monfils at the moment. But big value is laying him break up or set up as the prices will be really low and the match will be far from over. I see Istomin taking at least a set and he'll make this match very difficult for Mr. Monfils. Lay Monfils break or set up.
Straight bets:
Kohlscheiber@1.22, lost -1.00
Haas@1.26, won +0.26
Gicquel@2.84, lost -1.00
TOTAL: -1.74
That's all for me today, next post in 2 days. Enjoy your weekend.
6. 2. 14
New day
Hello.
Another solid day behind me. A lots of matches, but most of them don't look very interesting for me to trade. I'll put some matches on, but I'm not very confident about most of them, so i'll go with half-stakes with many of them (it's written besides the match where i'll play with half-stakes).
Zagreb (ATP, indoor hard)
11.00 - Lacko - Sela (1.81/1.95) - I'm favoring Lacko here a bit if he can repeat a good serving day from yesterday, even thou I really don't know why exactly Lacko is here favorite as he lost recent h2h match to Sela. I'll lay Sela break or set up with half-stake and I'll see where that will bring me. 3-setter with slight edge on Lacko for me. (half-stakes match)
Update: Sela was servingly amazingly in 1st set and took the 1st bp and raced away with the set. In 2nd set Lacko did get one bp before he went 2 breaks down. Straight forward win for Sela. Big loss.
12.00 - Phau - Youzhny (4.61/1.18) - Youzhny is a defending finalist from last year where he really played some excellent tennis here. He obviously likes this venue and he'll be up for it. Phau will not just simply fold here, that's for sure and he might catch Youzhny cold and rusty and that's what i hope. I'm going on with half-stake on Youzhny if he'll be break behind and i might even add some if he loses the set. I don't see Phau winning in 2 sets but everything is possible with erratic Russian. Youzhny in 2 or 3. (half-stakes match)
Update: Wuuhu, I'm glad I avoided this mess from Russian. Youzhny won 1st set but lost in 3. Big upset, luckily no trades on this one.
12.30 - Berrer - Evans (1.50/2.53) - Hard to call match as Berrer was taken to extremes by the Croatian talented youngster Borna Coric. Actually, Berrer played quite ok, but Coric is the one who impressed me with his play. Anyway, odds look tempting, but I'm a bit worried if Berrer has still enough energy to save this match from break or set down. So i'll be trying to lay Berrer set up and hope Evans can nick the set or even match when. I'm going for half-stakes lay on Berrer if he wins 1st set. I see 3-sets and Berrer to win if his tank will not be empty in the 3rd set. (half-stakes match)
Update: It looked like everything is going into Berrer's way in 1st set, but Evans started 2nd set better and went 5-0 up. Evans won in 3rd set tie-break. Big profit.
17.30 - Kuznetsov - Sijsling (2.81/1.42) - I feel Sijsling is the better played and he really need to play well to beat pumped out Kavcic. But anyway, I don't see this as an easy win for SIjsling. I'll try to get a lay after a good serve from Sijsling (hopefully he starts serving and goes 1-0 up) and then i'll lay and exit at bp or 0-30 to get some profit for lower lays. I still believe Sijsling to win, but it might be a 3-setter. Lay Sijsling on a bit reduced odds from starting ones and work your way from there. Sijsling in 2 or 3. (half-stakes)
Update: Laying Sijsling worked very well, as Kuznetsov took 4-0 lead in 2nd set. He did win in the end as well.
18.30 - Becker - Haas (1.41/2.80) - Haas may start this match a bit cold and rusty, but he's probably eager to play some tennis at last, as I have seen him here in Zagreb from Monday. Becker wasn't actually playing bad vs Gallung, but he had some really bad drops of playing level. He'll need to stay focused all the way tonight and he might make this game tight and interesting. I'll start with half-stake lay on Haas with option to relay if Haas will get an early break. Haas in 3, tight first set, possible tie-break.
Update: Haas made the first break, but Becker made a break back and another on late in the set and won 1st set. Haas won 2nd and 3rd set.
Montpellier (ATP, indoor hard)
12.00 - Nieminen - Herbert (1.52/2.46) -. I didn't watch either of them, but heard some rumours that Nieminen was pathetic vs Nedovyesov. Herbert was ok in his match vs Martinavarr, but that doesn't make me happy about the big-serving boy. I'll do have a try on lay side of captian Nemo (Nieminen) if he'll be set up and odds below 1.20. I see relatively good chance for Herbert to nick the set with his big serves.
Update: Layed Nieminen when he did win 1st set after come-back in tie-break. I wasn't pretty confident in Herbet so I took small profit when Nieminen was 0-30 on his serve and that was a good call. Small profit.
13.30 - Gicquel - Simon (3.65/1.27) - Odds on Simon who can always have a bad start are not for taking, but I'm seeing Simon as the winner here if he feels ok. Gicquel did won Simon in past but when Gicquel was in prime years and Simon only 18, now the situation is reversed. I hope for a standard slow start from Simo n and back him break down or set down. Simon to win in 2 or 3.
Update: Simon went from a very comfortable 5-2 up to 5-6 and lost the tie-breaker. He did came back in 2nd set only to lose next few games and was kicked out by Gicquel. Left my profit on Simon after his break so ended with zero profit and zero loss. 2nd upset of the day.
15.00 - Olivetti - Davydenko (3.17/1.34) - It's obvious Olivetti can only serve and that's about it from him. He'll need to have high 1st serve percentage just to stay in with Davydenko, who will try to convert the chances he'll get. Davydenko should definitely win majority of points when returner will put the ball back.
I'm going for a small back on Davydenko from the start (1/4) and add half-stake if he goes break or even set behind. Davydenko to win.
Update: Two epic chokes for Davydenko here... Olivetti won in 3 sets, but that really was Davydenko's game to take.
16.30 - Brown - Vasselin (3.28/1.32) - Brown is just too erratic player to perform constantly through the entire match. He might have a better start but will fade away and Vasselin has enough experience to beat players like that, especially on home soil. I'll be looking to get Vasselin around 1.60 or break down in 1st set and adding some if he losses 1st set. Vasselin in 2 probably.
Update: Highest odds were when Brown had a bp early in the set, i hesitated and missed the value and ERV won in 2 sets.
20.30 - Janowicz - Mannarino (1.39/2.88) - Mannarino will need to be firing serves all the time to be able to at least stay in with Janowicz. I really don't feel Janowicz performance will drop from the one we saw at Davis Cup matches where he was pretty good. I'm going for a lay if Janowicz will win 1st set and trade out if Mannarino will break or before the TB in 2nd set.
Update: I was already sleeping at this point, but that would looked like a losing trade. JJ in 2.
Vina Del Mar (ATP, clay)
18.00 - Almagro - Alund (1.21/4.18) - At this odds and with Almagro coming back from a shoulder injury and defending zero points (last time he played here was in 2006) lay from the start is a must even thou it might turn out bad. Almagro will probably not want to go deep here, probably he jus wants to test himself a bit and then off to Buenos Aires where he is defending semi final points. Alund can at least take a set and if things don't work for Almagro as they should he can get frustrated very quickly. 3-sets, upset from Alund or even retirement from Almagro.
Update: Alund won 1st set, Almagro played well and came back and won in 3. Best trade of the day.
18.00 - Daniel - Delbonis (3.29/1.32) - Most of the week I was on Daniel side but not today. I'll be waiting if Daniel can break big serving Delbonis then I'll back Delbonis as I don't see Daniel staying in the big league for long. First set might be close then an easier 2nd set for Delbonis. Delbonis to win.
Update: Delbonis won 1st set easily and it looked like a sure win for Delbonis but Daniel won 2nd and 3rd set in a tie-break. What a surprise.
19.30 - Traver - Zeballos (1.87/1.88) - It's not nice to see Zeballos on his tournament being an underdog. I actually didn't watch Traver's match vs Dolgopolov, but he looked ok. Zeballos on the other hand cruised over Lama (not so bad player on clay) and his stats were impressive. I need to go at least with half-stake on Zeballos from the start and hope he can repeat last years performance. It will not be easy, but I believe it. I'm gonna lay Traver if he'll go break up in 1st set or even won 1st set. ZEballos in 2 or 3.
Update: Luckily I missed that one. Zeballos didn't look anything like last year and lost in two easy sets. Would be a big loss trade for me if i would be at the desk.
Straight bets:
Sijsling@1.43, lost -1.00
Youzhny@1.21, lost -1.00
Davydenko@1.39, lost -1.00
Vasselin@1.35, won +0.35
Simon@1.30, lost -1.00
Alund@4.49, lost -1.00
Delbonis@1.36, lost -1.00
Zeballos@2.05, lost -1.00
TOTAL: -6.65
Another solid day behind me. A lots of matches, but most of them don't look very interesting for me to trade. I'll put some matches on, but I'm not very confident about most of them, so i'll go with half-stakes with many of them (it's written besides the match where i'll play with half-stakes).
Zagreb (ATP, indoor hard)
11.00 - Lacko - Sela (1.81/1.95) - I'm favoring Lacko here a bit if he can repeat a good serving day from yesterday, even thou I really don't know why exactly Lacko is here favorite as he lost recent h2h match to Sela. I'll lay Sela break or set up with half-stake and I'll see where that will bring me. 3-setter with slight edge on Lacko for me. (half-stakes match)
Update: Sela was servingly amazingly in 1st set and took the 1st bp and raced away with the set. In 2nd set Lacko did get one bp before he went 2 breaks down. Straight forward win for Sela. Big loss.
12.00 - Phau - Youzhny (4.61/1.18) - Youzhny is a defending finalist from last year where he really played some excellent tennis here. He obviously likes this venue and he'll be up for it. Phau will not just simply fold here, that's for sure and he might catch Youzhny cold and rusty and that's what i hope. I'm going on with half-stake on Youzhny if he'll be break behind and i might even add some if he loses the set. I don't see Phau winning in 2 sets but everything is possible with erratic Russian. Youzhny in 2 or 3. (half-stakes match)
Update: Wuuhu, I'm glad I avoided this mess from Russian. Youzhny won 1st set but lost in 3. Big upset, luckily no trades on this one.
12.30 - Berrer - Evans (1.50/2.53) - Hard to call match as Berrer was taken to extremes by the Croatian talented youngster Borna Coric. Actually, Berrer played quite ok, but Coric is the one who impressed me with his play. Anyway, odds look tempting, but I'm a bit worried if Berrer has still enough energy to save this match from break or set down. So i'll be trying to lay Berrer set up and hope Evans can nick the set or even match when. I'm going for half-stakes lay on Berrer if he wins 1st set. I see 3-sets and Berrer to win if his tank will not be empty in the 3rd set. (half-stakes match)
Update: It looked like everything is going into Berrer's way in 1st set, but Evans started 2nd set better and went 5-0 up. Evans won in 3rd set tie-break. Big profit.
17.30 - Kuznetsov - Sijsling (2.81/1.42) - I feel Sijsling is the better played and he really need to play well to beat pumped out Kavcic. But anyway, I don't see this as an easy win for SIjsling. I'll try to get a lay after a good serve from Sijsling (hopefully he starts serving and goes 1-0 up) and then i'll lay and exit at bp or 0-30 to get some profit for lower lays. I still believe Sijsling to win, but it might be a 3-setter. Lay Sijsling on a bit reduced odds from starting ones and work your way from there. Sijsling in 2 or 3. (half-stakes)
Update: Laying Sijsling worked very well, as Kuznetsov took 4-0 lead in 2nd set. He did win in the end as well.
18.30 - Becker - Haas (1.41/2.80) - Haas may start this match a bit cold and rusty, but he's probably eager to play some tennis at last, as I have seen him here in Zagreb from Monday. Becker wasn't actually playing bad vs Gallung, but he had some really bad drops of playing level. He'll need to stay focused all the way tonight and he might make this game tight and interesting. I'll start with half-stake lay on Haas with option to relay if Haas will get an early break. Haas in 3, tight first set, possible tie-break.
Update: Haas made the first break, but Becker made a break back and another on late in the set and won 1st set. Haas won 2nd and 3rd set.
Montpellier (ATP, indoor hard)
12.00 - Nieminen - Herbert (1.52/2.46) -. I didn't watch either of them, but heard some rumours that Nieminen was pathetic vs Nedovyesov. Herbert was ok in his match vs Martinavarr, but that doesn't make me happy about the big-serving boy. I'll do have a try on lay side of captian Nemo (Nieminen) if he'll be set up and odds below 1.20. I see relatively good chance for Herbert to nick the set with his big serves.
Update: Layed Nieminen when he did win 1st set after come-back in tie-break. I wasn't pretty confident in Herbet so I took small profit when Nieminen was 0-30 on his serve and that was a good call. Small profit.
13.30 - Gicquel - Simon (3.65/1.27) - Odds on Simon who can always have a bad start are not for taking, but I'm seeing Simon as the winner here if he feels ok. Gicquel did won Simon in past but when Gicquel was in prime years and Simon only 18, now the situation is reversed. I hope for a standard slow start from Simo n and back him break down or set down. Simon to win in 2 or 3.
Update: Simon went from a very comfortable 5-2 up to 5-6 and lost the tie-breaker. He did came back in 2nd set only to lose next few games and was kicked out by Gicquel. Left my profit on Simon after his break so ended with zero profit and zero loss. 2nd upset of the day.
15.00 - Olivetti - Davydenko (3.17/1.34) - It's obvious Olivetti can only serve and that's about it from him. He'll need to have high 1st serve percentage just to stay in with Davydenko, who will try to convert the chances he'll get. Davydenko should definitely win majority of points when returner will put the ball back.
I'm going for a small back on Davydenko from the start (1/4) and add half-stake if he goes break or even set behind. Davydenko to win.
Update: Two epic chokes for Davydenko here... Olivetti won in 3 sets, but that really was Davydenko's game to take.
16.30 - Brown - Vasselin (3.28/1.32) - Brown is just too erratic player to perform constantly through the entire match. He might have a better start but will fade away and Vasselin has enough experience to beat players like that, especially on home soil. I'll be looking to get Vasselin around 1.60 or break down in 1st set and adding some if he losses 1st set. Vasselin in 2 probably.
Update: Highest odds were when Brown had a bp early in the set, i hesitated and missed the value and ERV won in 2 sets.
20.30 - Janowicz - Mannarino (1.39/2.88) - Mannarino will need to be firing serves all the time to be able to at least stay in with Janowicz. I really don't feel Janowicz performance will drop from the one we saw at Davis Cup matches where he was pretty good. I'm going for a lay if Janowicz will win 1st set and trade out if Mannarino will break or before the TB in 2nd set.
Update: I was already sleeping at this point, but that would looked like a losing trade. JJ in 2.
Vina Del Mar (ATP, clay)
18.00 - Almagro - Alund (1.21/4.18) - At this odds and with Almagro coming back from a shoulder injury and defending zero points (last time he played here was in 2006) lay from the start is a must even thou it might turn out bad. Almagro will probably not want to go deep here, probably he jus wants to test himself a bit and then off to Buenos Aires where he is defending semi final points. Alund can at least take a set and if things don't work for Almagro as they should he can get frustrated very quickly. 3-sets, upset from Alund or even retirement from Almagro.
Update: Alund won 1st set, Almagro played well and came back and won in 3. Best trade of the day.
18.00 - Daniel - Delbonis (3.29/1.32) - Most of the week I was on Daniel side but not today. I'll be waiting if Daniel can break big serving Delbonis then I'll back Delbonis as I don't see Daniel staying in the big league for long. First set might be close then an easier 2nd set for Delbonis. Delbonis to win.
Update: Delbonis won 1st set easily and it looked like a sure win for Delbonis but Daniel won 2nd and 3rd set in a tie-break. What a surprise.
19.30 - Traver - Zeballos (1.87/1.88) - It's not nice to see Zeballos on his tournament being an underdog. I actually didn't watch Traver's match vs Dolgopolov, but he looked ok. Zeballos on the other hand cruised over Lama (not so bad player on clay) and his stats were impressive. I need to go at least with half-stake on Zeballos from the start and hope he can repeat last years performance. It will not be easy, but I believe it. I'm gonna lay Traver if he'll go break up in 1st set or even won 1st set. ZEballos in 2 or 3.
Update: Luckily I missed that one. Zeballos didn't look anything like last year and lost in two easy sets. Would be a big loss trade for me if i would be at the desk.
Straight bets:
Sijsling@1.43, lost -1.00
Youzhny@1.21, lost -1.00
Davydenko@1.39, lost -1.00
Vasselin@1.35, won +0.35
Simon@1.30, lost -1.00
Alund@4.49, lost -1.00
Delbonis@1.36, lost -1.00
Zeballos@2.05, lost -1.00
TOTAL: -6.65
5. 2. 14
Another busy day
Good morning.
Pretty decent day behind us yesterday. I was up to close +100% of the stake, which is really brilliant result considering I'm happy to take +10% per day. Straight bets were up for almost x 4 of the stake as well. Keep up the good work and don't be affraid of the losing days as they will come for sure.
I'm a bit late today, so I'll be adding matches up as the time goes as I don't have enough time to write everything before the first matches will start, so just keep going back and refresh the page.
Zagreb (ATP, indoor hard)
11.00 - Rosol - Sela (1.57/2.36) - Probably Rosol is more motivated here, but that just doesn't justify so low odds. Sela is no pushover player and he'll fight and he even has nice chances to win this match with his tricky and unusuall style of play. I'll go around 1/5 of stake laying from the start and add more if Rosol will go break up or set up. Possible 3-setter and a nice swing for the break.
Update: Sela started better and i got my profit but i wanted to see 3-sets so i ended with 0%.
12.30 - Kuznetsov - Stakhovsky (2.89/1.39) - Looks like Stakhovsky is in great form at the moment, but looking at the stats from Kuznetsov he isn't shabby as well, but we need to know that he played players around 400 spot. I wouldn't go against Stakhovsky here, but Stako break up will push the price near the set price so we can have a chance there or wait for set and hope Kuznetsov will at least fight a bit. Not very confident, so I'm going 1/5 after the break in 1st set and maybe 1/4 in 2nd set. I'll go for small profit. I see Stako winning in 2 tight sets.
Update: Kuznetsov draw the first blood and won in straight sets. Quite a surprise.
17.00 - Cilic -Lajovic (1.11/6.28) - Odds are not good either for backing or laying. I don't see Cilic losing this match, but I'll go with half-stake in backing Cilic if he can somehow lose 1st set. Highly unlikely, but everything is possible. Cilic in 2.
Update: Cilic won in 2 tight sets, Lajovic had a chance to win 1st set, sadly he didn't convert. No trade.
18.30 - Kavcic - Sijsling (2.46/1.52) - A very contrasted match this is. A lots of people yelling there is a great value on Kavcic to win, but they are thinking Sijsling is going to play in Rotterdam next week, but he is not. He'll give it all this week and then rest next week. I really don't see it easy for Kavcic to break the Dutch player, his best chance is a tie-break, but he'll need to be good to hold until then. I'm going something small on Sijsling at around 1.70 and will put that profit in case Sijsling wins 1st set to Kavcic free-bet. Probably Sijsling in 2.
Update: Backed Sijsling at 5-5 and layed Kavcic after he won the set. Hedged out and left profit on Sijsling at start of set 3. Sijsling won.
Montpellier (ATP, indoor hard)
12.00 - Sousa - Kamke (2.53/1.50) - Hmmmh, even thou Kamke looks a slight favorite to me here, 1.50 is just nuts to take. Sousa played decent match in DC vs Slovenia (lost in a battle vs Kavcic) and he certainly has chances to take a set here. Kamke can produce quite some errors when he's not at his best and laying after Kamke goes break or set up is the key to trade the match. I see 3-setter and maybe Sousa to win the match.
Update: Sousa did take 2nd set 6-1 after he faced BP in first game. He did hold and went to 5-0 up. He did win in 3. Both played good tennis.
16.00 - Monfils - Kubot (1.13/5.58) - There really shouldn't be any guesses who will win this match... Of course Monfils, but... Monfils withdrawed yesterday in doubles matches because of lower back injury, how serious the injury is i can't tell. But if it's serious and it it will affect his serves I don't see it wise for him to play here and rather take a rest before Rotterdam. Speculative lay from the start and either loss the layed stake or win big if Monfils retires after 1st set. It's up too you. I'm going half-stake in. Monfils 2-0 or retirement.
Update: No signs of injury here from Monfils. He won in 3 sets.
19.00 - Benneteau - Davydenko (1.46/2.63) - Davydenko was awfull to trade last few matches, as he struggled when the important points (trading-wise) happened. He was broken at start of sets, was broken back after getting break, etc... When veterans come together they usually give us a decent match of solid quality, I believe this will be the case today. Will lay Benneteau break up and add some at start of 2nd set. I see a 3-setter that may go to either side.
Update: Great stuff from Baldy, he won 7-6, 7-5.
Vina del Mar (ATP, clay)
18.00 - Garcia-Lopez - Lorenzi (1.61/2.26) - I really must go with Lorenzi on this match as I have no reason to go against him. He is playing good lately, he is motivated, while GGL almost did lose vs Reister (not a bad guy on clay). I'm laying GGL from the start with half-stake and adding some more if Lopez gets a break ahead in early games as I see a comeback from Lorenzi. Lorenzi to win this match, i do favor GGL if it will be a very long match.
Update: Very swingy match and best profit for me here. Lorenzi started better and won 1st set and it looked like a more or less comfortable 2-0 win for him, but GGL came back and won in long 3-sets match.
18.00 - L.Mayer - Robredo (3.12/1.35) - I expect very tight first set and L.Mayer will definitely be more motivated here then Robredo.I hope Robredo can start better, relax a bit and let the Argentinian back in. I do see nice chances for L.Mayer to get a win here, but at least he can get a set. I'm going to lay Robredo break up or set up. 3-sets, value on Leo.
Update: Wuha, I simply couldn't stayed in this trade... Mayer wasn't getting any chances on Robredo serve and he lost 1st set, 2nd set went into tb, where Robredo had 4 mp's. Mayer did get 1st set point and won the set and also the decider.
19.30 - Giraldo - Granollers (1.92/1.84) - I want to see how they'll start playing. All i know it will not be an easy match for either of them. Usually Granollers starts slower and then fights back in 2nd set. I do want him to start better and lose the serve. Laying Granollers break up is my strategy. And will lay him in 2nd set as well. 3-sets.
Update: I didn't watch or trade it. Giraldo won 7-6, 7-6.
23.00 - Garin - Chardy (5.04/1.16) - Those two played 1 year back at the exact venue. Only difference was that it was r16 not r32. Garin won 1st set, but Chardy won 2nd and 3rd. Garin is one year older (18 now) and 1 year more experienced. He went from number 900 to number 300 and Chardy from 24 to 43. Odds went up from 1.12 to 1.16. If Garin has chances today he has them from the start. I don't believe he is good enough to win, but at least he can take him close in first set. Chardy played excellent in last few years in Vina Del Mar, so I expect him to win in the end if he will play ok.
Update: Had a decent profit before this match started, so i skipped it. Chardy won 7-5, 6-0.
Straight bets:
Sousa to win@2.49, won +1.49
Cilic to win@1.12, won +0.12
L.Mayer@3.15, won +2.15
Lorenzi@2.14, lost -1.00
TOTAL: +2.77
Pretty decent day behind us yesterday. I was up to close +100% of the stake, which is really brilliant result considering I'm happy to take +10% per day. Straight bets were up for almost x 4 of the stake as well. Keep up the good work and don't be affraid of the losing days as they will come for sure.
I'm a bit late today, so I'll be adding matches up as the time goes as I don't have enough time to write everything before the first matches will start, so just keep going back and refresh the page.
Zagreb (ATP, indoor hard)
11.00 - Rosol - Sela (1.57/2.36) - Probably Rosol is more motivated here, but that just doesn't justify so low odds. Sela is no pushover player and he'll fight and he even has nice chances to win this match with his tricky and unusuall style of play. I'll go around 1/5 of stake laying from the start and add more if Rosol will go break up or set up. Possible 3-setter and a nice swing for the break.
Update: Sela started better and i got my profit but i wanted to see 3-sets so i ended with 0%.
12.30 - Kuznetsov - Stakhovsky (2.89/1.39) - Looks like Stakhovsky is in great form at the moment, but looking at the stats from Kuznetsov he isn't shabby as well, but we need to know that he played players around 400 spot. I wouldn't go against Stakhovsky here, but Stako break up will push the price near the set price so we can have a chance there or wait for set and hope Kuznetsov will at least fight a bit. Not very confident, so I'm going 1/5 after the break in 1st set and maybe 1/4 in 2nd set. I'll go for small profit. I see Stako winning in 2 tight sets.
Update: Kuznetsov draw the first blood and won in straight sets. Quite a surprise.
17.00 - Cilic -Lajovic (1.11/6.28) - Odds are not good either for backing or laying. I don't see Cilic losing this match, but I'll go with half-stake in backing Cilic if he can somehow lose 1st set. Highly unlikely, but everything is possible. Cilic in 2.
Update: Cilic won in 2 tight sets, Lajovic had a chance to win 1st set, sadly he didn't convert. No trade.
18.30 - Kavcic - Sijsling (2.46/1.52) - A very contrasted match this is. A lots of people yelling there is a great value on Kavcic to win, but they are thinking Sijsling is going to play in Rotterdam next week, but he is not. He'll give it all this week and then rest next week. I really don't see it easy for Kavcic to break the Dutch player, his best chance is a tie-break, but he'll need to be good to hold until then. I'm going something small on Sijsling at around 1.70 and will put that profit in case Sijsling wins 1st set to Kavcic free-bet. Probably Sijsling in 2.
Update: Backed Sijsling at 5-5 and layed Kavcic after he won the set. Hedged out and left profit on Sijsling at start of set 3. Sijsling won.
Montpellier (ATP, indoor hard)
12.00 - Sousa - Kamke (2.53/1.50) - Hmmmh, even thou Kamke looks a slight favorite to me here, 1.50 is just nuts to take. Sousa played decent match in DC vs Slovenia (lost in a battle vs Kavcic) and he certainly has chances to take a set here. Kamke can produce quite some errors when he's not at his best and laying after Kamke goes break or set up is the key to trade the match. I see 3-setter and maybe Sousa to win the match.
Update: Sousa did take 2nd set 6-1 after he faced BP in first game. He did hold and went to 5-0 up. He did win in 3. Both played good tennis.
16.00 - Monfils - Kubot (1.13/5.58) - There really shouldn't be any guesses who will win this match... Of course Monfils, but... Monfils withdrawed yesterday in doubles matches because of lower back injury, how serious the injury is i can't tell. But if it's serious and it it will affect his serves I don't see it wise for him to play here and rather take a rest before Rotterdam. Speculative lay from the start and either loss the layed stake or win big if Monfils retires after 1st set. It's up too you. I'm going half-stake in. Monfils 2-0 or retirement.
Update: No signs of injury here from Monfils. He won in 3 sets.
19.00 - Benneteau - Davydenko (1.46/2.63) - Davydenko was awfull to trade last few matches, as he struggled when the important points (trading-wise) happened. He was broken at start of sets, was broken back after getting break, etc... When veterans come together they usually give us a decent match of solid quality, I believe this will be the case today. Will lay Benneteau break up and add some at start of 2nd set. I see a 3-setter that may go to either side.
Update: Great stuff from Baldy, he won 7-6, 7-5.
Vina del Mar (ATP, clay)
18.00 - Garcia-Lopez - Lorenzi (1.61/2.26) - I really must go with Lorenzi on this match as I have no reason to go against him. He is playing good lately, he is motivated, while GGL almost did lose vs Reister (not a bad guy on clay). I'm laying GGL from the start with half-stake and adding some more if Lopez gets a break ahead in early games as I see a comeback from Lorenzi. Lorenzi to win this match, i do favor GGL if it will be a very long match.
Update: Very swingy match and best profit for me here. Lorenzi started better and won 1st set and it looked like a more or less comfortable 2-0 win for him, but GGL came back and won in long 3-sets match.
18.00 - L.Mayer - Robredo (3.12/1.35) - I expect very tight first set and L.Mayer will definitely be more motivated here then Robredo.I hope Robredo can start better, relax a bit and let the Argentinian back in. I do see nice chances for L.Mayer to get a win here, but at least he can get a set. I'm going to lay Robredo break up or set up. 3-sets, value on Leo.
Update: Wuha, I simply couldn't stayed in this trade... Mayer wasn't getting any chances on Robredo serve and he lost 1st set, 2nd set went into tb, where Robredo had 4 mp's. Mayer did get 1st set point and won the set and also the decider.
19.30 - Giraldo - Granollers (1.92/1.84) - I want to see how they'll start playing. All i know it will not be an easy match for either of them. Usually Granollers starts slower and then fights back in 2nd set. I do want him to start better and lose the serve. Laying Granollers break up is my strategy. And will lay him in 2nd set as well. 3-sets.
Update: I didn't watch or trade it. Giraldo won 7-6, 7-6.
23.00 - Garin - Chardy (5.04/1.16) - Those two played 1 year back at the exact venue. Only difference was that it was r16 not r32. Garin won 1st set, but Chardy won 2nd and 3rd. Garin is one year older (18 now) and 1 year more experienced. He went from number 900 to number 300 and Chardy from 24 to 43. Odds went up from 1.12 to 1.16. If Garin has chances today he has them from the start. I don't believe he is good enough to win, but at least he can take him close in first set. Chardy played excellent in last few years in Vina Del Mar, so I expect him to win in the end if he will play ok.
Update: Had a decent profit before this match started, so i skipped it. Chardy won 7-5, 6-0.
Straight bets:
Sousa to win@2.49, won +1.49
Cilic to win@1.12, won +0.12
L.Mayer@3.15, won +2.15
Lorenzi@2.14, lost -1.00
TOTAL: +2.77
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