Disaster

Hiya.

Well, this is a bit embarrasing right now. One day back all my previews were spot on, the next day it was a complete disaster from start till end. I don't even want to think how all of my straight bets were wrong, probably the Chimp would produce better analyses and picks as I did yesterday. Fun part is i had a green day in the end (trading) and that's what matters most, that you can escape with small red or even profit on such a horrible days like that. Still the spreadsheet had many good possible trades (like every day). I'll be offering my spreadsheet for 10 eur per month for any of you that might be interested from March on.

Marseille (ATP, indoor hard)

18.30 - Gulbis - Agut (1.32/3.27) - Gulbis won the only h2h match they played in St.Petersburg. The match will be known for the "squeaky shoes" incident as Gulbis was squeaking with his shoes (deliberately) to annoy Agut on service line. I wonder if Gulbis will put on the squeaky shoes again tonight. Gulbis starts very low tonight, it's a bit logical after his good run in Rotterdam and recent wrist injury from Agut. Agut played 1 match already and looked ok vs Brown (won in 3). I'll be looking for a lower lay on Gulbis (break up or set up) as I see the match will not be over as Agut usually doesn't go away so quickly. 3-sets and over 21.5 games.

Dubai (WTA, hard court)

16.00 - S.Williams - Jankovic (1.13/5.62) - Jankovic has the game to trouble Serena who isn't at her best at the moment. Serena had problems over Makarova and she needed to destroyed the racquet in order to get through with her frustration and turned the set into her way. Jankovic took a set from Serena in last 2 matches and she knows how to be dangerous to her. My trade is simple here: laying from the start, trying to get a free bet (if there's an option for good exit at bp for Serena i'll take it of course) on Jankovic and get some profit. Jankovic to win a set would be nice. Jankovic+5.5games looks a decent straight bet.

Rio de Janeiro (WTA, clay)

15.00 - Royg - Begu (2.75/1.42) - Royg looks a favorite to me here. Both came to 2nd round through qualifications and are used to clay by now. Odds on BEgu look very short even from the start but my plan is to take it cautiously and lay Begu break up (unless it's late in 1st set) or set up. I see many breaks and break backs here and hold of serve will probably be more important the break. I see a 3-setter here and i do slightly favor Royg to win.

Rio de Janeiro (ATP, clay)

17.30 - Cuevas - Fognini (4.21/1.21) - With Acapulco coming closer and closer I only see two options here (both look profitable to us): one is, Fognini will lose this or next match and prepare himself for Acapulco where he is defending points or he'll try to go deep here as well and then take a holidays in beautiful and luxurious Acapulco. So question, are you willing to risk 20 ticks? I am. I don't see Fognini coming back from another 1-0 down or winning another 3-setter. Logic say he will leave this match and fly to Acapulco today. I'm laying Fognini from the start and leaving lay in play. Cuevas to win.

Delray Beach (ATP, hard court)

00.30 - Sela - Isner (3.55/1.28) - It's not going to be easy win for Isner, but motivation is high for both players and I don't see anyone having an edge in 1st set. Isner doesn't have problems with just keeping his own serves and probably Sela will be trying more to get a break then TB as TB's are Isner's speciality. I'll for a lay from the start (ideally Isner start serving and gives us 5 ticks lower price) and taking 1/6 of the stake out after every hold from Sela so I'll end with small profit at 6-6 if it goes to there. If the red will be small in 1st set i'll repeat the process in 2nd set. Maybe a 3-setter. TB to be played.

Straight bets:

Baghdatis@1.73, lost -1.00
Cilic@1.21, won 0.21
G.Melzer@1.45, won 0.45
Ram@1.36, won 0.36
Ramos@1.51, lost -1.00
Dolgopolov@1.26, won 0.26
Royg@3.03, lost -1.00
Lino@1.79, won 0.79
Seppi@2.47, lost -1.00
Kamke@2.84, lost -1.00
V.Williams@1.63, won 0.63
Navarro@1.87, lost -1.00
Jankovic@6.50, lost -1.00
Ilhan@1.14, won 0.14
Muller@1.37, won 0.37
Pouille@1.48, won 0.48

TOTAL: -3.31