Day before day-off

Hi.

Spreadsheet had a big success yesterday with strike rate of successful trades at astonishing 84% (16 out of 19). I hope many of you had profited from that, well, at least that's my goal, to help others as this is a game where we all can be winners. I'm not thinking today will be as good as yesterday, but if it's over 50% it's still ok. I would hope that first couple of trades go my way in order to have unstressful last day before taking a day off tomorrow. Of course at my day off also spreadsheet isn't updated.Btw: quite some matches today where i believe odds are totally wrong from the start and might drift a lot before they'll actually start.

Dubai (ATP, hard)

16.00 - Djokovic - Federer (1.21/4.34) - Huh, record match here as Djokovic hit lowest odds facing Federer today. They played 32 games and only 1 was a easy win (exhibition match in Dubai). I really don't know who on the earth would take Djokovic from the start at those odds? Ok, true, he is on fire and Federer is beyond his best years, but still, they are not really that far apart, it will be small things that will decide the match and it will be close as last 31 games have been so far. Big value is in laying Djokovic break or set up, as Federer will not see this as a game over. Djoko in two tight sets (1x tb) or 3-sets.

Florianopolis (WTA, hard)

18.30 - Muguruza - Shvedova (1.34/3.16) - I'll simpy copy/paste what I have written for TennisInsight: "Shvedova is playing ok, but Muguruza looks like a sexy version of The Beast, her power is enormous and she can constantly pressure the opponent when she is receiving. And what i appreciate most with Muguruza is her extreme concentration, that's some real winning mentality. Next top 10.
Shvedova's serves and game will need to be even better then in previous rounds (I watched her all - she was pretty good), she'll need to erradicate stupid unforced errors (quite some vs Strycova). 3-setter vs Uytvanck wasn't bad, they both showed some excellent tennis and a great comeback from Uytvanck from 5-3 down in 2nd set to win the tie-break. I'm tipping Muguruza here (TennisInsight), but IRL i'll wait if Muguruza can go break down or even set. Muguruza-4 games@1.80 also look like a nice value for straight bet."

Sao Paolo (ATP, indoor clay)

23.30 - Bellucci - Klizan (1.56/2.38) - Klizan should be at least 1.70 favorite on this match in my opinion. Everything points here to Klizan and if home country is worth the switch off odds, well then go for it, but I think it's a trap. Klizan won last 2 matches vs Bellucci, has the same style of tennis as Bellucci, both are left-handers, big serves, while Klizan is more steady player and Bellucci has more ups and downs and can implode at some moments. Bellucci also played a lots of matches lately (all long 3-setters) and I'm time he packs his bags. I'm laying Bellucci from the start and laying him again if he wins 1st set. Odds may increase a bit here (i did get him at 1.65, but i believe he may start at 1.80). Klizan in 2 or 3.

Acapulco (ATP, hard)

4.00 - Dimitrov - Murray (2.95/1.39) - Personally it will probably me a bit too late to follow, but I'll most likely put a small straight bet on Dimitrov to win a set. I don't see why Murray is such a big favorite (only because of the name!) and from what I have seen from him this week (struggling vs Simple Simon) he should be a lay from the start. Unless Murray will not raise the game on this occasion i'm seing nice chances for Dimitrov to finally take a set from Murray here. His best chances should be in 1st set, both are bad starters. I'm relaying Murray if he goes break up early. 3-sets

Acapulco (WTA, hard)

23.00 - Cibulkova - S.Zhang (1.29/3.51) - Well, I'll not lose a lots of words here... This looks like a banker bet (with decent odds) on Cibulkova to win. They played 3 times and 3 times Cib won easily in straight sets. Now that Cibulkova is in even better form then ever, she will be simply too much for the Chinese. As we don't like big risk/small rewards, i'm waiting if Cibulkova can have a bad start and go break down. 1.60 or higher would interest me a lot. I'm also laying if Zhang can get a surprise first set win. But i'm not really seeing anything else then a 2-0 for Cibulkova.