Moving on

Hello.

Decent day on trades yesterday and absolutely brilliant on straight bets. Nothing really interest me from a trading point of view before 14.30h today. I'll personally be away from computer until 18.00, but I'll post the matches I would have traded if I would be at home for you guys. The page will be updated in hour or half hour, so check back later.

Ok, here we go:

Montpellier (ATP, indoor hard)

13.30 - Llodra - Gicquel (1.41/2.81) - Match of two old French players. I believe it will be very tight and a lay from the start on Llodra is the way to go as I see both men holding well. Llodra may turn up a bit rustier then his friend Gicquel who had 3 matches already. Lay start, hedge at decent price and use that profit if Llodra wins 1st set for re-lay. I see 2, 3-tight sets.

Update: If you haven't exited after first seven in a  row points by Llodra then you might get a nice swing. I actually exited on 0-30 on Gicquel serve and then relayed on 0-40 and break point for Gicquel after hold did gave me back to zero. I didn't trade anymore after that. 0% for me here.

19.00 - Schepper - Olivetti (1.69/2.13) -This look like a serving contest. Both are awull when the ball goes in play, so it's either one break that'll decide the set or it goes to a tie-break. Schepper is more experienced one, so i believe laying Schepper break or set up is the play. I'm going half stake if Schepper will win 1st set.
3-setter, tie-breaks.

Update: Went in with half-stake at around 1.20 and traded out at 1.80 when Olivetti won 2nd set in a tie-breaker. Nice profit.

20.30 - Herbert - Martinavarr (1.36/3.03) - Clearly Martinavarr is far better baseliner player, but how many times he'll have the chance for longer rallies vs Herbert? I believe if Spaniard will stick to the plan, cutting down ue's he'll get a chance to stay close and maybe take one of his rare chances to go break up. It's a lay for me from the start. Herbert is something i really don't trust at odds like that.

Update: Martinavarr produces just what i thought. He did lose in the end, but he was close in first set. Even thou he didn't went in front i succesfully avoided any red and exited with no loss.

Zagreb (ATP, indoor hard)

14.30 - Phau - A. Pavic (1.76/2.01) - I need to go here with more experienced German here even thou Pavic is playing on home ground, but he is in terrible form lately. Ideally we would want to lay Pavic break up, but if you don't want to miss the swing if Phau will take this match easily you can just back him from the start. I'm  backing half-from the start and adding if Phau gets broken or losses the set. Phau to win. Last H2H win for Pavic is a slight concert thou.

Update: Pretty easy for Berrer, won in  2.

17.00 - Berrer - Coric (1.16/4.90) - Probably the odds are right. But in case Coric can put his nose in front i don't see him being good enough to maintain the level. I'm backing Berrer if he'll be break down or set down. Berrer to win in 2.

Update: I did get a small trade in 3rd set when i backed Berrer@1.69 and exited very quickly and managed +10% on Berrer.

18.30 - Brands - Karlovic (1.86/1.90) - Big serve contest. 3 tie-breaks without a single bp being offered would not surprise me here. I'm not touching this in 1st set. Value is of course going in laying if there will be break as the market will shift towards set price, or just stay and lay the winner of 1st set and expect 2nd set tie-break or perhaps it can turn your way as well. 3-sets, tie-breaks.

Update: Pretty expected what has happened. Karlovic was very strong on serves. 2 tie-breaks. I went in with half-stake at start of 2nd set and after Karlovic won 2nd set i was able to have +30% of profit on Karlovic.

Vina Del Mar (ATP, clay)

18.00 - Cuevas - Delbonis (2.11/1.69) - Delbonis suffered some losses recently on hard courts but his best surface is of course clay. Cuevas is having a comeback after serious of injuries and is a great player when his game is on. He might start slowly so I'm going in if Delbonis will go break up but will retreat if it'll look too easy for Delbonis as he might found his form from last year. If it will be a fight i'm going to lay in 2nd set as well. 3-sets, value with Cuevas. Going with half-stakes.

Update: Cuevas was fighting but it wasn't enough for him to harm Delbonis on serve. Small loss.

19.30 - Alund - Ramos (2.06/1.73) - I don't really know why Ramos is favorite here, but that's even better. Let us wait for great entry if Ramos goes break up and then we lay and wait for Alund to climb back. Good possibility for a 3-setter. Alund is my favorite here.

Update: Damn, damn, and damn again... I didn't take lovely odds at start when Ramos had 2 bps as I waited for break... Alund saved them and raced to a lead which he never let away. Alund won, but no trade for me.

19.30 - Volandri - Busta (2.14/1.67) - Pretty much similar story here... I see this a big fight match. Volandri's serves really do suck so he could go down in 1st set... I'm laying half-stake in 1st set if Volandri goes break down and adding some in 2nd set. Volandri in 3 is my call.

Update: Oh dear, I somehow expected that... Volandri lost first set 6-0 and then he went 3-1 ( i exited with quite a loss some minuetes before) and then he won the set 6-3. He lost the decider thou.

21.00 - Giraldo - Hidalgo (1.33/3.23) - No reason whatosver here that Giraldo would be 1.40 favorite. Not even 1.70. Total fifty-fifty match for me, while Hidalgo is in hot form and for Giraldo this will be a first match of the year on clay. Huge value on Hidalgo. Lay start and relay if Giraldo goes break up.

Update: I managed to get +24% of profit on Hidalgo in pre-match swing (1.39 to 1.69), so after i had already a good day i just left it like that. The trade would probably end with a red figures. Giraldo won in 2.

21.00 - Daniel - Bellucci (4.83/1.17) - Bellucci will for sure trade over 1.50 at some point, so I'm going laying from the start and hope to trade some off very quickly and will leave some for the rest of the match. Daniel is in great form, but Bellucci won him in AO, maybe a revenge match? value on Daniel. 3-setter.

Update: Profit of the day here for me. Great start from Daniel as he went 3-0 up (double break), he won the match 6-3, 6-3. But at 3-0 i was out already as the odds went from 1.20 to over 2.00.

I might add Dallas Challenger trades and straight bets later on.

Straight bets:
Daniel to win@5.30 - won +4.30
Hidalgo to win@3.34 - lost -1.00
Volandri to win@2.21 - lost -1.00
Alund to win@2.14 - won +1.14
Lorenzi to win@1.70 - won +0.70
Phau to win@1.85 - won +0.85
Martinavarr to win@3.05 - lost - 1.00

TOTAL: +3.99