Another busy day

Good morning.

Pretty decent day behind us yesterday. I was up to close +100% of the stake, which is really brilliant result considering I'm happy to take +10% per day. Straight bets were up for almost x 4 of the stake as well. Keep up the good work and don't be affraid of the losing days as they will come for sure.

I'm a bit late today, so I'll be adding matches up as the time goes as I don't have enough time to write everything before the first matches will start, so just keep going back and refresh the page.

Zagreb (ATP, indoor hard)

11.00 - Rosol - Sela (1.57/2.36) - Probably Rosol is more motivated here, but that just doesn't justify so low odds. Sela is no pushover player and he'll fight and he even has nice chances to win this match with his tricky and unusuall style of play. I'll go around 1/5 of stake laying from the start and add more  if Rosol will go break up or set up. Possible 3-setter and a nice swing for the break.

Update: Sela started better and i got my profit but i wanted to see 3-sets so i ended with 0%.

12.30 - Kuznetsov - Stakhovsky (2.89/1.39) - Looks like Stakhovsky is in great form at the moment, but looking at the stats from Kuznetsov he isn't shabby as well, but we need to know that he played players around 400 spot. I wouldn't go against Stakhovsky here, but Stako break up will push the price near the set price so we can have a chance there or wait for set and hope Kuznetsov will at least fight a bit. Not very confident, so I'm going 1/5 after the break in 1st set and maybe 1/4 in 2nd set. I'll go for small profit. I see Stako winning in 2 tight sets.

Update: Kuznetsov draw the first blood and won in straight sets. Quite a surprise.

17.00 - Cilic -Lajovic (1.11/6.28) - Odds are not good either for backing or laying. I don't see Cilic losing this match, but I'll go with half-stake in backing Cilic if he can somehow lose 1st set. Highly unlikely, but everything is possible. Cilic in 2.

Update: Cilic won in 2 tight sets, Lajovic had a chance to win 1st set, sadly he didn't convert. No trade.

18.30 - Kavcic - Sijsling (2.46/1.52) - A very contrasted match this is. A lots of people yelling there is a great value on Kavcic to win, but they are thinking Sijsling is going to play in Rotterdam next week, but he is not. He'll give it all this week and then rest next week. I really don't see it easy for Kavcic to break the Dutch player, his best chance is a tie-break, but he'll need to be good to hold until then. I'm going something small on Sijsling at around 1.70 and will put that profit in case Sijsling wins 1st set to Kavcic free-bet. Probably Sijsling in 2.

Update: Backed Sijsling at 5-5 and layed Kavcic after he won the set. Hedged out and left profit on Sijsling at start of set 3. Sijsling won.

Montpellier (ATP, indoor hard)

12.00 - Sousa - Kamke (2.53/1.50) - Hmmmh, even thou Kamke looks a slight favorite to me here, 1.50 is just nuts to take. Sousa played decent match in DC vs Slovenia (lost in a battle vs Kavcic) and he certainly has chances to take a set here. Kamke can produce quite some errors when he's not at his best and laying after Kamke goes break or set up is the key to trade the match. I see 3-setter and maybe Sousa to win the match.

Update: Sousa did take 2nd set 6-1 after he faced BP in first game. He did hold and went to 5-0 up. He did win in 3. Both played good tennis.

16.00 - Monfils - Kubot (1.13/5.58) - There really shouldn't be any guesses who will win this match... Of course Monfils, but... Monfils withdrawed yesterday in doubles matches because of lower back injury, how serious the injury is i can't tell. But if it's serious and it it will affect his serves I don't see it wise for him to play here and rather take a rest before Rotterdam. Speculative lay from the start and either loss the layed stake or win big if Monfils retires after 1st set. It's up too you. I'm going half-stake in. Monfils 2-0 or retirement.

Update: No signs of injury here from Monfils. He won in 3 sets.

19.00 - Benneteau - Davydenko (1.46/2.63) - Davydenko was awfull to trade last few matches, as he struggled when the important points (trading-wise) happened. He was broken at start of sets, was broken back after getting break, etc... When veterans come together they usually give us a decent match of solid quality, I believe this will be the case today. Will lay Benneteau break up and add some at start of 2nd set. I see a 3-setter that may go to either side.

Update: Great stuff from Baldy, he won 7-6, 7-5.

Vina del Mar (ATP, clay)

18.00 - Garcia-Lopez - Lorenzi (1.61/2.26) - I really must go with Lorenzi on this match as I have no reason to go against him. He is playing good lately, he is motivated, while GGL almost did lose vs Reister (not a bad guy on clay). I'm laying GGL from the start with half-stake and adding some more if Lopez gets a break ahead in early games as I see a comeback from Lorenzi. Lorenzi to win this match, i do favor GGL if it will be a very long match.

Update: Very swingy match and best profit for me here. Lorenzi started better and won 1st set and it looked like a more or less comfortable 2-0 win for him, but GGL came back and won in long 3-sets match.

18.00 - L.Mayer - Robredo (3.12/1.35) - I expect very tight first set and L.Mayer will definitely be more motivated here then Robredo.I hope Robredo can start better, relax a bit and let the Argentinian back in. I do see nice chances for L.Mayer to get a win here, but at least he can get a set. I'm going to lay Robredo break up or set up. 3-sets, value on Leo.

Update: Wuha, I simply couldn't stayed in this trade... Mayer wasn't getting any chances on Robredo serve and he lost 1st set, 2nd set went into tb, where Robredo had 4 mp's. Mayer did get 1st set point and won the set and also the decider.

19.30 - Giraldo - Granollers (1.92/1.84) - I want to see how they'll start playing. All i know it will not be an easy match for either of them. Usually Granollers starts slower and then fights back in 2nd set. I do want him to start better and lose the serve. Laying Granollers break up is my strategy. And will lay him in 2nd set as well. 3-sets.

Update: I didn't watch or trade it. Giraldo won 7-6, 7-6.

23.00 - Garin - Chardy (5.04/1.16) - Those two played 1 year back at the exact venue. Only difference was that it was r16 not r32. Garin won 1st set, but Chardy won 2nd and 3rd. Garin is one year older (18 now) and 1 year more experienced. He went from number 900 to number 300 and Chardy from 24 to 43.  Odds went up from 1.12 to 1.16. If Garin has chances today he has them from the start. I don't believe he is good enough to win, but at least he can take him close in first set. Chardy played excellent in last few years in Vina Del Mar, so I expect him to win in the end if he will play ok.

Update: Had a decent profit before this match started, so i skipped it. Chardy won 7-5, 6-0.


Straight bets:
Sousa to win@2.49, won +1.49
Cilic to win@1.12, won +0.12 
L.Mayer@3.15, won +2.15
Lorenzi@2.14, lost -1.00

TOTAL: +2.77