Short break is better then no break

Hi.

And i'm back in working chair again. Today we start a bit early as Dubai qualification matches with pretty decent players is starting at 7.30h already. I'll post 3-4 match previews here and I'll be adding them during the day. Btw, I have been working on some good strategy as well and I'll give it a test today. I want around 10 games of test before I'll put it out into the public.

Dubai (WTA, hard)

7.30 - Knapp - Beck (2.14/1.65) - Knapp had a disappointing run in Doha where she got kicked out by Jankovic while Beck progressed deep but she didn't had to do exactly a lot. Knapp was maybe feeling a bit fatigued because of Davis cup but I believe she is fully fit again. Strong win for her in 1st round is giving me a good feeling. Anyway, Knapp should love the game of Beck and should be able to hit many winners through Beck who is just an average defender. I'll be looking for a small back from the start and adding some more if Beck gets a break or even set up. I believe Knapp wins this in 2.

Update: Awfull... Knapp didn't have a hold of serve through the entire match. Big loss.

9.00 - Petkovic - Giorgi (1.32/3.16) - Even starting odds look a bit tasty here, but I'll skip backing Petkovic from the start. Petkovic is a very constant player who give fight to every player, while Giorgi is one of the most erratic players in the tour. Outcome should be only one: win for Petkovic here, unless Giorgi can find somewhere something special. I'm going deep if Petkovic gets break down in 1st set or loses the 1st set. Petkovic in 2.

Update: Same thing with Petkovic, as she was thrashed from Giorgi.

Marseille (ATP, indoor hard)

13.00 - Giustino - Ward (1.97/1.75) - Ward has not impressed me lately on indoor courts but he had an excellent match on clay vs Querrey in Davis Cup. Giustino is enjoying and playing some of his best tennis lately and has already won vs Ward on hard courts last year. Giustino is ok server and he hasn't have problems if the ball is in play as well. Small lay on Ward from the start and adding up if he goes in front. I see Giustino taking a set for sure.

Update: Giustino was struggling all the way and Ward was cruising. Ward won in 2.

Rio de Janeiero (WTA, clay)

16.00 - Glushko - Burnett (2.57/1.45) - No reason at all why Burnett should be so heavy favorite here against Glushko. Looks like a complete 50%/50% match to me, but as one of those two will need to go in front sooner or later I'll hope that will be Burnett and that would as well trigger my lay of laying Burnett at below 1.30. I see Glushko winning a set and perhaps a match.

Update: Glushko was first to be broken in 1st set but she did fight back and won 1st set then lost in 3.

Rio de Janeiero (ATP, clay)


17.00 - Klizan - Alund (2.03/1.70) - Alund is having a strong clay season so far, with a good win over Ramos and took Almagro to 3-sets. Klizan played his first match and beat Hocevar (Brazilian) in 3. Everything close to 2.00 on ALund seems like a nice value to me and i'll take around 1/4 of the stake from the start with an option to lay Klizan break or set up. ALund in 2 or 3.

Update: Tight 2 sets won from Klizan.

Delray beach (ATP, hard court)

21.00 - A.Zverev - Elias (3.04/1.34) - Odds are actually quite nice to take from the start considering what a huge difference it's between those two players. Elias had some quite good weeks behind him and I don't see him losing with all of his experience to this kid who can only serve. I'll wait for a surprise break from Zverev then I might back Elias and make another back if he can lose the set. Elias is good baseline player. Elias in 2.

Update: Elias lost the opening set but managed a fight back to win in 3.

Straight bets:
Zanevska@2.65, won 1.65
Petkovic@1.39, lost -1
Sands@1.57, lost -1
Knapp@1.73, lost -1
Ungur@1.83, lost -1
Teixeira@3.15, lost -1
Giustino@2.16, lost -1
Irigoyen@2.78, lost -1
Glushko@2.80, lost -1
Dutra Silva@2.19, lost -1
Alund@1.68, lost -1
Groth@1.18, won 0.18
Elias@1.41, won 0.41

TOTAL: -7.76