Monday, monday

Hello.

It's monday and we have a plenty of matches on, but mostly still the qualifying rounds. Here are the trades I'll be doing and below are the straight bets.

(odds are average number from all bookies and are not betfair odds)

Montpellier (ATP, indoor hard)

11.00 - Martinavarr - Millot (3.11/1.33) - Laying Millot if he will go break or set up as I don't feel it will be very easy for Millot here. Might be a 3-setter. I'm going to take around +15% of stake here.

Update: Won +25% of stake after strange comeback from Martinavarr. Martinavarr won the match.

12.30 - Gicquel - Krajicek (1.47/2.53) - Hmmh, full-stake lay for me here from the start. I really don't know why old veteran who had an easy draw so far is such a heavy favorite vs big serviing and in great form Krajicek. If Krajicek will play as he is, he can take the 1st set. I'm going for at least +30%. And a possible relay if Gicquel wins 1st set.

Update: Krajicek was pretty hopeless. -38% for me with good positions but sometimes you need that your man wins a point on receiving end as well.


12.30 - Ilhan - Teixeira (2.23/1.59) - I'm not really amazed by anyone here. I'll play half-stake laying of Teixiera if he goes break or set up. It's a close match for me.

Update: No trade, Ilhan went ahead and won in 2.

16.30 - Mathieu - Mahut (2.74/1.43) - MAthieu is in dreadful form lately and there are rumors his health is not on 100% as well. I might grab a half-stake on Mahut around 1.60 and add some if Mahut will get broken. If Mathieu will improve it may be close. So be cautious.

Update: Cruiser then an MTO from Mahut and retirement. Huge loss.

Zagreb (ATP, indoor hard)

12.00 - Berrer - Cecchinato (1.13/5.26) - If you can get 1.20 that's pretty much ok. I don't see anything else then a win from Berrer here. You can also use this bet in any multis.

Update: Straight-forward game... market surprised me a bit with that spike to 1.25 pre-match, but i stayed calm and realised i was right. Berrer easily 6-2, 6-2. +15% for me after i left my green on  Berrer after 1st set.

13.30 - Evans - Phau (1.48/2.49) - Pretty fifty-fifty match for me. As I want to play it safe i'm going for a lower lay on Evans and see if the German veteran can get back from a break or set down. Going for around +15% here.

Update: Well, I did a mess here as one of the sure-bets (arbitrages) went wrong so I had hard time to handle that. I did layed Evans anyway at 1.30 in 1st set and traded out and left some profit on Phau. +15% for me here.

14.30 - Kuznetsov - M.Pavic (1.39/2.81) - A bit tricky one. I could also go laying from the start, but I also don't have any reasons why to go heavy against Kuznetsov who was solid so far. I'm waiting for break and a pretty much safe lay. Maybe a 3-setter and if it comes to that i give an edge to home boy.

Update: No entries as Pavic won a tie-breaker in 1st set where there wasn't any break.

17.00 - Cilic - Delic (1.05/9.18) - I'm going half-stake back Cilic from start and adding another half if Delic can get his nose (break up) in front. I see really no chances of Cilic losing this. You can also use it in multis.

Update: Cilic 6-4, 6-4.

18.30 - Gallung - Becker  (2.61/1.46) - 1.46 is not really a good area for backing Benjamin. but everything over 1.60 might get my interest in half-sttake to see how they are doing. Gallung has a big event (for him) next week in Rotterdam and being previously injured he might take Zagreb not so seriously and prepare for Rotterdam. If Becekr gets in front i don't see big fight back from Gallung.

Update: Choke of the century, Gallung with 5-3 and 40-0 starts serving kick serves, gets broken gets a tie-break somehow and is 5-0 up and also 6-3 up but loses 6-8. Huuuge choke. Lucky i left my green on Becker.

Dallas (ATP, CH, hard)

20.00 - Andersen - Sandgren (5.65/1.11) - Andersen basically lives on this grounds here in Dallas (he is a tennis teacher) and usually gives his best performance here. Sandgreen is still a big player for him, but I guess we could lay at around 1.10 and free-bet out at 1.20 and see how it will go. Andersen might get a set and then he has also the chance to win. I'm going for +50% win on Andersen.

Update: Sandgren went break up, was trading around 1.05 but lost the set and was trading around 2.00. Andersen won in the end.

Vina Del Mar (ATP, clay)

16.00 - Souza - Hidalgo (2.50/1.48) - Souza should win this, but not easy at all. No sense to back Souza here, so I'll wait if Hidalgo can take 1st set and see where the odds will be. I definitely want below 1.50 to half-stake lay Hidalgo and hope for a 3-setter and hedge at around +25%.

Update: It was a good price for laying Hidalgo at start of 2nd set and i even relayed at break down, but Souza didn't come back. Small loss for a big potential profit.

17.30 - Daniel - Arguello (1.59/2.22) - Well, I didn't fully trust Daniel in previous match, now i do trust him more. Will be a tight match but will want to lay ARguello at below 1.30 here as I see fight back from Japanese player. Possible 3-set and the win can go to either player in my opinion.

Update: Daniel lost 1st set but fight back and won in 3.

19.00 - Alund - Pella (1.85/1.86) - Hmmmh, Alund looks at least 1.60-1.70 favorite for me here, and as Pella is a slow starter i see a good way to handle this is backing Alund around evens with half-stake and hope he can win first set to hedge your trade. If it doesn't go our way we can still lay Pella at around 1.60-1.50 and hope for Alund to come back. Pella usually comes back so it might be a 3-setter but i'm favoring at these (evens) odds Alund who won both recent h2h matches on clay.

Update: ALund won first set, lost 2nd and won 3rd. Nice trade.

20.30 -  Bellluci - Bagnis (1.24/3.66) - Bellucci is shockingly low here, but i want my lay to be in range of 1.15-1.10 where i'll feel really confortable. Bagnis is a decent player on clay but struggled lately on hard court tournaments. It might be close, and possible 3-setter as Bellucci may sometimes lose his head completely.

Update: Didn't trade but looking at the result it would be another profitable trade.



Straight bets (singles):
Alund@1.95 - won 7-6, 3-6, 6-3. +0.95
Berrer@1.20 - won 6-2, 6-2 +0.20
Phau@2.89,  won 6-3, 6-4. +1.89
Pavic@2.94 lost - 1.00
Andersen@7.20 won +6.20
Krajicek@2.75, lost 3-6, 2-6 -1
L.Mayer@1.50 won +0.50
Becker@1.52 won +0.52
Cilic@1.05, won +0.05
Mahut@1.49 - lost -1.00

TOTAL: +7.31