My time is already running up, so I'll post just my "best trade" from every ATP/WTA tournament. I had decent profit yesterday so I ended my work earlier, I hope the same for today.
In case you want to hear about my thoughts for other matches you can find me on TradeShark chat and you can naturally ask me about others, as I have all of them in spreadsheet. Good luck.
Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)
11.00 - Mathieu - Dodig (2.97/1.38) - Even thou I never really liked Mathieu it's clearly visible that Dodig is way too strong favorite considering the odds for this match. Mathieu is playing decent tennis and was way better then big serving Brands. Dodig is a fighter, has also strong serve (not as much as Brands) but I feel Mathieu can at least equally compete against Dodig. Dodig really hasn't showed the right face this year. I'm laying Dodig from the start with full-stake with option to add half-stake if Dodig is set or break up and search for scratch. Mathieu can at least win a set.
Update: Wow, who would believe that comeback. Dodig lost just few points on serve before 2nd set TB started, but then it was Mathieu all over him. Mathieu won in 3.
Doha (WTA, hard court)
13.30 - Peng - Petrova (2.19/1.65) - There is no real logic behind why Petrova should be favorite against Peng on this match. She hasn't really done anything remarkable after her come back from injury and she struggled a bit in qualifications even thou she played quite easy players. If Petrova doesn't have her serve she is just an ordinary player and Peng can deal players like that. Peng will need to play smart and I believe she can take the match here. I'm laying Petrova from the start and adding up if she breaks first.
Update: Peng draw first blood in 1st set but was immediately broken back, the game went into tb which had been won by PEng. 2nd set saw plenty of breaks and eventually Peng did get one hold to win the match in 2.
Buenos Aires (ATP, clay)
16.00 - Garin - G.Melzer (1.87/1.84) - Nice test for youngster Garin again. Odds are probably right, but I feel Garin is way better player. This time I'll not go for Garin from the start but I'll rather wait if Melzer can get another better start and then relax a bit and let Garin back in. So, laying Melzer break or set up and hoping Garin can win a set. 3-setter, Garin.
Update: Melzer won 1st set and then the fightback from Garin started, but Garin needed exactly 10 break chances to get first break. He did win in 3.
Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)
18.00 - Goffin - McGee (1.32/3.14) - Goffin started pretty poor vs Ginepri then he woke up and won quite easily (6-1, 6-4). McGee is currently a player in form, but I believe he started to fade a little already. HE struggled a lot vs Novikov and even lost a set vs him. I'm hoping McGee can start better (maybe go break up) and we can get 1.50/1.60 which is a good price to take Goffin. Backing Goffin break down or laying Mcgee set up. I don't see Mcgee winning in 2. Goffin in 2 probably.
Update: Goffin raced away in 1st set but had some trouble in 2nd set but won it anyway.
Straight bets (some have already started)
Huang@1.87, won +0.87
Chiudinelli@3.22, won +2.22
Androic@2.34, lost -1.00
Ungur@2.35, lost -1.00
Muller@1.51, won +0.51
Mathieu@3.24, won
Gallung@2.93, lost -1.00,
V.Williams@1.28, won +0.28,
Peng@2.29, won +1.29
Garin@1.90, won +0.90,
Robredo@1.35, won +0.35
Goffin@1.36, won +0.36
Elias@3.21, lost -1.00
TOTAL: +5.12
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