1st rounds in full glory

Hi.

Tonight we have a lots of matches on all tournaments, with 1st rounds to be completed today. I'll personally only trade later games (after 19h) and will take night shift today. So i'm skipping Dubai, Cherbourg and most of early Florianopolis matches. Previews will be done for all matches in spreadsheet as usually for those that are trading over the day.

Dubai (ATP, hard court)

11.00 - Stepanek - Russell (1.40/2.85) - Two veterans to play in 1st round of Dubai. Russell had good results in USA hard courts (beating Hewitt, taking Isner to 3, etc) while Stepanek was suffering due to a strained heel. It's still not known how his condition is, but if it's serious he might take it easy and be fully fit for upcoming Indian Wells. Even if Stepanek is healthy he can't beat Russell with left hand. Courts are not so fast as Stepanek would like and I see a pretty even match here with both guys having the same chances to win. I'm going for a lay from the start with option to relay on lower odds. There might be quite some breaks here. 3-sets.

Florianopolis (WTA, hard)

17.00 - Cadantu - Pfizenmaier (2.15/1.68) - I see quite a value here on Pfizenmaier already at the start. Pfizenmaier's game is suited for hard courts as she posses big shots and has a really amazing down the line backhand that's her primary weapon. Cadantu was shaky vs Gabriela Ce in first round but she wasn't a real threat to her as her shots were way too soft to be a danger on hard court. If Pfizenmaier will cut down unforced errors and especially double faults she should win this match. I'm half-stake backing Pfizenmaier from start with option to add some on higher odds and I'll lay Cadantu if she is set up. Pfizenmaier in 2 or 3.

Sao Paulo (ATP, indoor clay)

19.30 - Lorenzi - Riba (1.50/2.50) - Riba somehow found his serving again (he was struggling previous weeks), but has smacked incredible 31 aces in last 4 sets. That is an amazing number even for big servers. If he'll continue to serve like that that means he might get quite some free points and he'll have more energy to focus on breaking Lorenzi. Odds are too low on Lorenzi who will need to adjust to indoor conditions and when he'll adjust he might be already a break down. Laying Lorenzi from the start looks like a good way to g for me with perhaps laying also if break down or set down. Riba to win 1st set and has nice chances for a match as well.

Acapulco (ATP, hard)

2.00 - Matosevic - Dimitrov (3.46/1.29) - Dimitrov has become a reliable player in last few months. He doesn't have problems staying in rallies (he actually quite enjoys it) and has a big serve to get him some free points. Matosevic is very up and down player, he can impress you now, but you'll be very disappointed about him in next few minutes. He'll not be able to have a lots of mood/quality swings vs Dimitrov if he wants to be close. Dimitrov is better player as a whole and if he is up for a long run here he should dominate over Matosevic in 2 sets. Odds close to 1.40 are very interesting from the start for me, as I feel Matosevic will be more vulunerable on serve and likely to be broken first. I'm backing DImitrov from start and adding if Matosevic will win 1st set. Dimitrov in 2.


Acapulco (WTA, hard)

2.00 - Meusburger - Fichman (1.87/1.87) - These two players really can't be at evens just because Fichman came through qualies beating girls over 100th place and Meusburger lost vs Pennetta. Do you see a big difference in quality? Well, you should, because it is... In my opinion there is huge value already on MEusburger from the start but as she isn't used to courts and she's slow starter we might also wait a bit and hope Fichman can get an early break, because she'll  not be able to continue with top game throughout the whole match. Laying Fichman break up or set up (if that happens) should give you a great value. Meusburger in 2 or 3.

Straight bets:

Rola@1.52, won 0.52
Merwe@4.23, lost -1.00
Gabashvili@1.46
Fucsovics@1.59
Teixeira@2.26
Daniel@1.49, lost -1.00
Millot@1.66
Bertens@1.64
Uytvanck@1.85
Pfizenmaier@1.74
Bedene@2.10
Giraldo@2.40
Meusburger@1.98
Wozniak@2.36
Kubot@2.74
Dimitrov@1.33
Sousa@2.08
F.Lopez@1.62