New tournaments and some finals

Hello.

And I'm back into working mode again. Two days completely away from trading and thinking about odds and chances and breaks and stuff like that has really done me good. We have plenty of tournaments in upcoming week, but today there are only qualification matches and finals. And as I'm usually not doing any previews for final matches (Zagreb, Montpellier, Vina Del Mar), there will be some Rotterdam matches that interest me.

Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)

11.00 - Brands - Mathieu (1.53/2.35) - Odds are definitely not good, but if you stick with Brands you need to stick with him before he is break up as afterwards all the value will be gone. It's true that Mathieu won last h2h matches, but that was years ago. I believe Brands will be too tough for Mathieu too break and Brands may get more chances. I'll go for half-stake back on Brands with option to lay Mathieu set up. In case Brands wins 1st set i'll put some profit on laying Brands and hope for a 3rd set or at least 2nd set TB. Brands in 2 or 3.

Update: Brands started first set really bad but then he somehow found his serve, but it wasn't enough as Mathieu won in 3 sets.

12.00 - Kubot - Berrer (2.15/1.63) - Really hard to say. I believe Kubot is underestimated on indoor hards as I see him as a quite decent player. Berrer could be exhausted from Zagreb, but he had some time to rest and his 1st round match was more or less walkover. I want to see Berrer break up in 1st set as there will be plenty of time for Kubot to come back (even 1 bp would be good enough). I'm going for Berrer break up take some loss if Kubot will not come back and then small lay also in 2nd set if BErrer will win it. 3-setter.

Update: Berrer with a break up then Kubot did break back hold and get 2 bps of his own and that was more then enough for a nice swing.

Doha (WTA, hard)

13.30 - Hsieh - Majeric (1.76/1.96) - Last match few days ago went into Majeric's way but Hsieh was then 1.33 favorite, now she is on 1.76 so most of the value gone. But Hsieh going break up can get us our value back and that's what i'm waiting. Laying Hsieh break up (in first few games) or wait for Hsieh to win the set is my way to trade this one. Majeric is my favorite (again) to win it.

Update: That was my loss of the day, but still nothing drastically. Hsieh won in 2 sets.

13.30 - Pironkova -Dulgheru (1.29/3.28) - I don't see Pironkova will have another good tournament here... SHe already struggled a bit in 1st round of qualifications and Dulgheru may be a tricky opponent. Pironkova break up is definitely a lay for me, especially if it's early in the set with option to lay some more if Pironkova wins 1st set. 3-setter.

Update: Nice profit here for me as I layed Piro at below 1.10 and went mostly out around 1.40's.

13.30 - Rodionova - Cetkovska (1.93/1.78) - Neither of those two has impressed me lately with their play (especially not Cetkovska). I do slightly favor Rodionova but not on starting odds. I'm going with cheap 1/8 lay if Cetkovska will win 1st set and adding another 1/8 if Cetkovska goes break ahead in 2nd set. 3-sets.

Update: Cruiser from Cetkovska and then a retirement from Rodionova late in 2nd set.

15.00 - Lucic - Kovinic (1.79/1.91) - Lucic playing pretty bad tennis at the moment, plus her 1st serve percentage isn't good as well. Kovinic looks in solid form and i'll go with her from the start. I'm gonna lay Lucic from the start and add some if she goes break up, I see Kovinic winning in 2 unless Lucic will not drastically increase her serve game and decrease the errors.

Update: Kovinic had 2 good starts of the set but lost both of them.

15.00 - Zanevska - Johansson (1.85/1.85) - Johansson climbing up from a severe decline in year 2013. But she still can go back to her own self and make over 10 double faults in a match. She'll have much more problems to hold her serve as Zanevska today, but i want to see Johansson getting break up (early in set) to lay her on lower odds and I tend to add some also in 2nd set. Zanevska in 2 or 3 sets.

Update: Many breaks and swing here, but i stayed just for one and did +20% and both and moved on. Zanevska won in 3.

Buenos Aires (ATP, clay)

15.00 - Olivo - Hidalgo (2.45/1.50) - I believe Hidalgo is the better player at the moment. Olivo may of course start better again as he is used to beat Hidalgo (won last h2h match), but i don't see it will be easy for Olivo to keep his nose in front once he will get in front. So i'll wait for Olivo break or set up and then lay Olivo or back Hidalgo on better odds. Hidalgo in 3 sets. My strategy is to get some green on Hidalgo and try to get 0 on Olivo as soon as possible.

Update: Layed Olivo around 1.80 and left profit on Hidalgo when he did break back and went in front. Hidalgo won in 3 sets.

16.30 - Garin - Londero (1.68/2.09) - Londero is higher ranked on ATP rank, but I believe young player from Chile is enjoying one of his best moments and is a big prospect for the tennis in future years. He'll be probably way too strong for Londero tonight ,even thou Londero is playing at home. I'll go half-stake on Garin from start with option to add another half if he goes break down. Garin in 2 or 3.

Update: Garin started better and was the better player more or less the whole match. He  won in 2.

16.30 - M.Gonzalez - Andreozzi (1.92/1.79) - Probably Andreozzi is the right favorite here since Maximo was in bad form lately and his 1st round win wasn't inspiring at all. Since this is the match vs two Argentians who know each other i'll leave 1st set to go by and lay Gonzalez if he'll win 1st set. I believe Andreozzi should win, hopefully in 3.

Update: Quite easy win from Maximo in 2 sets.

16.30 - G.Melzer - Souto (1.55/2.34) - In my opinion Melzer shouldn't have problems vs Souto here. Backing Melzer from start and adding if he gets broken or will be set down. Melzer in 2.

Update: Melzer raced away in first set bagelling Souta and won 2nd in tie-break.


Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)

17.00 - Novikov - McGee (3.68/1.24) - Novikov can give a fight to McGee (nice recent form) but he is probably not there yet to upset him. Lower lay (Mcgee break or set up) may give us a good chance as I don't see Novikov will completely give up if behind as he has nothing to lose.  (use half-stakes)

18.30 - Kuznetsov - Bangoura (1.23/3.77) - I can't really go with Alex Kuznetsov since i watched him last 2 or 3 times and he really sucked. Bangoura is still a lower ranked American player which Kuznetsov should deal with easily, but I'm going to have a try here with a lay from the start on Kuznetsov and relaying break up. Maybe Bangoura can put his nose in front.

18.30 - Salisbury - Elias (6.38/1.09) - This was first serious win for Salisbury in his career. Elias should win this easily but I'll give it a try below 1.10 in first say with reduced stakes. Salisbury may at least fight and Elias is not really hard court player.

Straight bets:
Gasquet@1.82, lost -1.00
Zanevska@2.02, won +1.02
Kudryavtseva@1.32, won +0.32
Rodionova@2.18, lost -1.00
Majeric@2.03, lost -1.00
Brands@1.62, lost -1.00
G.Melzer@1.61, won +0.61
Andreozzi@1.82, lost -1.00
Hidalgo@1.56, won +0.56
Garin@1.71, won +0.71
Haas@2.66, lost -1.00

TOTAL: -2.78