Valentine's day

Good day.

Yesterday was a great day which turned into even better as i forgot to take out my 1.06 lay on Li and it turned out Cetkovska won in the end. Nice and unexpected jackpot win for me there. Anyway, not so many matches up today, so we'll need to choose wisely. I decided to do some previews for CH matches as well.

Quimper (CH, indoor hard)

18.30 - Olivetti - Millot (1.63/2.15) - You'll not  be able to see plenty of tennis and longer rallies will definitely be very rare here. Millot's task will be to be constant on serve and win his serve easily, while Olivetti will be hitting aces and cruising through his serves. Olivetti has been on courts for two weeks now and he might feel a bit fatigued at this point. If Millot will be staying in he might get a chance or two to get the break (probably not). If not in worst case he should take the match at least into tie-breaks. My strategy is a lay from the start (if Olivetti starts serving i'll wait for the hold) and taking some profit out after every hold from Millot, so I can go with around +10% if it comes to tb. My exit point is BP for Olivetti and i'll relay if Olivetti wins 1st set.


Bergamo (CH, indoor hard)

16.00 - Arnaboldi - Fucsovics (2.11/1.65) - Fucsovics had two nice wins in previous rounds while Arnaboldi cruised through as well. This will be a very good match. Fucsovics is better player on baseline, but will not have so many free points, while Arnaboldi likes to close down the points fast and will have much more free serves. Arnaboldi is left hander. My strategy is to enter if Fucsovics will go break up early in 1st and hope for at least a chance (BP) for Arnaboldi to come back. If break for Fucsovics will come late in 1st set i'll wait for the set and lay then. I see Arnaboldi taking at least a set. 3-setter.

Buenos aires (ATP, clay)

00.00 - Ferrer - Ramos (1.07/8.13) - Hmmmh, Ferrer at below 1.10 really isn't to be trusted, plus he hasn't showed any greatness yet on clay courts. Ramos is in great form here and he might get in front in 1st set. I don't exactly believe Ramos will win for sure, but I see him having chances. I'll lay Ferrer from the start and add half-stake if he goes break up as there will be a lots of time for Ramos to come back. I expect at least a tight match and odds will definitely go above 1.20. 3-sets, Ramos.

Memphis (ATP, indoor hard)

21.00 - Hewitt - Russell (1.25/3.77) - Nice match up here. Usually when they have played RUssell did take the opening set then Hewitt clawed back and found the win. I suspect similar pattern today as Hewitt is a slow start and Russell can exploit weak 2nd serve good. I'm going for a lay of Hewitt from the start and at right time (Russell break up) i'll take my profit and hopefully switch to Hewitt in 2nd set. 3-sets.

Doha (WTA, hard court)

15.00 - Kvitova - Jankovic (2.26/1.62) - Jelena is surely the better player and looks more consistent and less erratic then Petra. Kvitova can suddenly turn from world beater to shit eater in matter of seconds, but she usually has the ability to strike back. I'll wait for low odds on Jelena in 1st set to lay her, as I believe Kvitova can come back and make this match tight. Laying Jelena break or set up. 3-sets.

Rotterdam (ATP, indoor hard)

19.30 - Cilic - Murray (2.95/1.38) - Nice game for Murray yesterday vs Austrian kid. Watch replay if you have missed that match as it was really worth watching. Murray is leading 10-1 in h2h over Cilic but Cilic has gained some confidence lately and has the better serve here. But I wasn't exactly impressive with Murray lately so I see Cilic getting chances here. I'll get involved if Murray goes break up or after he wins the 1st set as he usually relaxes and let his opponents back into the game. We don't really need a lot, just couple of points for Cilic on Murray serve and we can at least make a free-bet on Cilic who may take a set tonight. 3-sets.

Straight bets:
Kuznetsov@3.15, lost -1.00
Russell@3.98, won +2.98
Ramos@9.81, lost -1.00
Millot@2.31, won +1.31
Berdych@1.35, won +0.35
Grigelis@3.13, lost -1.00

TOTAL: +1.64