Day of the qualifiers

Howdy.

We have bunch of finals which I'm not trading as I prefer to watch them in peace without any stress, which I deserve after a hard working week. I'll focus on some of the qualifying matches that turn my interest. I'll try to play it a bit more cautious, so many games will not get to their trade-entry point, but as the old saying goes: "At least you can't lose money if there is no entry".

You can still apply for the spreadsheet (How? Read previous post), as it will be available for free until end of Februray. It includes all ATP/WTA matches and also all CH matches that are available to trade on Betfair.

Dubai (ATP, hard court)

9.30 - Copil - Gallung (1.68/2.07) - Both are big servers and first set will be decided by one break of serve or even a tie-break. Copil has good comeback stats and as this is very important tournament I don't expect him to simply fold if he losses first set. So I see biggest value in laying Galung set up on this certain game. I'll not be very disappointed if there will be no entry (if Copil wins 1st set), but I don't see value from the start.
Lay Gallung set up. 3-sets, Copil.

Florianopolis (WTA, hard)

15.00 - Mestach - Marino (1.43/2.66) - Mestach is deserved to be favorite on this match, but around 1.50 looks just silly considering they are pretty much on same level and small things will decide the winner. Plus Marino is player who can adjust her game, Mestach can't as she is very one-dimensional hard hitting girl. As the odds are already so low at he start, we want to get even better position, so I'll wait if MEstach can get a break in 1st set (unless it's very late) and then lay Mestach. I'll also relay in 2nd set as I don't see 1-0 in sets as a game over yet.  Marino won their last match which was on grass in 3 sets. I see another 3 setter with a lots of value on Marino.


Sao Paolo (ATP, indoor clay)

18.00 - Bagnis - Tsuchiya (1.08/6.92) - I'm usually against backing on low odds, but this seems like a good oportunity to back at a bit over 1.10 on Bagnis. Tsuchiya lost 3 games vs Becuzzi who is 40 year old player who hasn't won a game since ever (he is playing tournament qualification just by paying money to get there). Bagnis is a left hander and that's just that much better then Tsuchiya was against Becuzzi. Back Bagnis start and back him again (unless injured) if he losses 1st set (he'll not). Bagnis in 2.

Acapulco (ATP, hard)

00.30 - Young - Smyczek (1.53/2.35) - Usually those two have tough mathces and they certainly know each other as they have played 11 times. Young is leading 7:4 but their winning streaks also go for 2 wins in a row and currently Smyczek is on 1 so he might get another win. Odds are very good for laying from the start so lay Young from start with half-stake and have another half-stake reserved if Young wins 1st set or breaks first. Take profit if Smyczek wins the set. Smyczek 2-0/2-1 for me.

Acapulco (WTA, hard)

23.00 - Konta - Bencic (2.47/1.49) - Ok, true, Bencic is great kid and she is in great form, but nevertheless she needed 3 tough sets to win over Rogowska who is not as good as Konta. And odds are on 1.49? I don't see exactly why...Konta isn't bad if she can put her good game on and is ranked higher then Bencic. I'll go laying Bencic break or set up up (maybe half+half) in believe Konta will win a set or be close to win one.
3-sets.

Straight bets:
Elias@1.10, won 0.10
Bagnis@1.10, won 0.10
Lajovic@1.37, won 0.37
Lacko@1.94, won 0.94
Smyczek@2.51, won 1.51
Kleybanova@2.56, lost -1.00
Vecino@1.57, won 0.57
Tsurenko@1.69, won 0.69
Davis@1.68, lost -1.00
Starace@1.10, won 0.10

TOTAL: 2.38