26. 2. 14

2nd rounds

Hello.

No straight bets today as I don't have time to do them. So only 4 trade previews from main tournaments. Everything else is covered in spreadsheet which i hope you like it, of course you can't expect all of the entries to work, but some surely do and if you go for all of them you'll end in profit for sure.

Dubai (ATP, hard court)

12.00 - Kohlschreiber - Seppi (1.32/3.26) - Nice match, where we did get almost the same odds as Mayer vs Seppi where Seppi has won. Probably Mayer is also better then Kohlschreiber. Seppi's game plan is to not do exactly much, try to get balls back, hit a winner when a chance and simply leave Kohlschreiber to beat himself with errors. They are tied at 4-4 in head to head matches and that surely is a sign the match will not be one-sided. Huge value lies on Seppi here. Big concern is a trademark bad start from Seppi because Seppi usually looks very uninterested in first couple of games, but then he gets his game on. I'll risk a lay from the start and hope Seppi can have a normal start today. I'll be putting liability out slowly as the game progresses and red out with small red if Kohlschreiber will be better in 1st set to lay him again for 2nd set. Seppi to take a set.

Florianopolis (WTA, hard)

15.00 - Ormaechea - Uytvanck (2.14/1.67) - Qualifier Uytvanck is playing great tennis for hard courts at the moment. SHe is winning games with her aggression and powerful shots, some of the work is also done with her (good) serving for WTA standard. Ormaechea can sometimes drop serve game very fast with couple of errors as she knows she can usually get back quicky, but it will be way harder vs Uytvanck. Uytvanck will have easier serve holds and will pressure Ormaechea more on serves. I'm going half-stake on Uytvanck from start and adding if Ormaechea goes break up. Uytvanck in 2 or 3. I'll hedge profit if Uytvanck wins a set.

Sao Paulo (indoor clay)

16.30 - Zeballos - Pella (2.21/1.64) - Hmmmh, Zeballos was very fortunate to get over Cuevas where he was always barely staying in, but somehow survived and won. Pella also had similar story has he did get the important points in order to win over Leo Mayer in 3. Pella is currently the player in better shape and knows how to get back (he made quite some good comebacks). Out of that reason i'm waiting for Zeballos to get in front (ideally in first few games, else i'll wait for the set) to get better value on Pella and then back him. So, laying Zeballos break up or set is the the strategy for me for this game.

Acapulco (ATP, hard)

5.00 - Sousa - Murray (8.61/1.06) - They both love playing baseline tennis where they are the best. Both are defenders with big shots and variety of skill (of course Murray has more of all). This will be a good hitting practice match for both and if Murrays serve will be average Sousa will have all the chances to be competitive from baseline. If Sousa will have in mind only that he must fight and enjoy in tennis and not to be worried about winning, he might give him the real match and a very good match for the audience. Sousa maybe to win a set, but Murray to win.

Acapulco (WTA, hard)

23.00 - Cibulkova - Wickmayer (1.30/3.42) - Cibulkova played ok in first round, she was getting good percentage off points on both serves and she wasn't been broken. Wickmayer had an up and downish match, offering many break points, losing points quickly, etc. I see quite some breaks of serve here, especially from Cibulkova, but starting odds don't interest me. I want to see Cibulkova break behind or at least 1.60 to get my attention. Cibulkova in 2 or 3.

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