Blog is back

Hello guys.

Update: Most of the post was done before the electricity went down so there are some stuff written about some matches that have already finished or already started.

Since I received many questions whether I would like to share my views on particular tennis matches I decided I'll reopen the blog once again. Don't expect too much, but I'll try to pick up something for traders and as well something for straight betters. This week we have plenty of tournaments 3 main ATP's (Montpellier on indoor hard, Zagreb on indoor hard and Vina del Mar on clay and 3 CH events which Betfair is covering as well (Dallas, West Lakes and Chennai).

Montpellier

Trades:
10.30 - Lokoli - Teixeira - LAY Teixeira (from start, after break or after set). - I expect Teixiera will trade around 1.40 at least (starting price of approx. 1.20). I have a feeling the kiddo can make a tight match, but I'm not very confident.

12.00 - Desein - Martinavarr  - Desein should win this, but 1.40 is not really backable price, so we wait for around 1.80 in early games, else we wait if Martinavarr can win first set then we lay Martinavarr. Else we back Desein when break down in first set (first 3-4 games). I expect Desein to win in 2.

15.00 - Crepaldi - Krajicek - I have a feeling that Crepaldi is a tricky player, I'm favoring Krajicek still thou, but I'll wait if Crepaldi can win 1st set then lay Crepaldi and hope Krajicek can get 2nd set.

Straight bets:
Desein to win@1.42 (1 UNIT)
Krajicek to win@1.42 (1 UNIT)
Lokoli to win@4.33 (1 UNIT)


Multi: Desein+Krajicek+Ilhan+Millot@3.72 (1 UNIT)

Zagreb

Trades:
It's probably no use that I write about what I thought as the most of the matches are finished or in-play but if you like to  hear:  I was pretty sure Arnaboldi would win vs Fischer and I would lose quite some at that match if i would trade it (was 6-2, 6-0 for Fischer). I would be looking for a lower lay on Quinzi vs Krstin, but since Krstin broke first I wouldn't get it.  Then I would lay Cipolla from the start and from 2nd set, that would turned out for at least a scratch as Pavic was close to winning 2nd set and odds moved from 1.08 to 1.90. And I would place below 1.10 lay on Cecchinato if he would win 1st set.

Yet to come:
15.30 - Evans - K. Beck - Lay of Evans on close to set price (1.20 or below) in 1st set or at the start of 2nd set. Half-stake confidence. Make a free-bet on K.Beck as soon as possible and let it run.


Vina Del Mar

Trades:
Not much interesting here today, just 3 matches that interest me for trading:

16.00 - Pella - Malla - Maybe try to scalp some with below 1.10 lay in pre-match trading and then try to get 1.05/1.04 lay if Pella goes break up in 1st set and try to get free-bet on Malla and take +10% of stake if it gets there. Local boy Malla will at least give it a fight.

17.30 - Daniel - Riba - Daniel is in pretty good form and he won G. Melzer (who is quite high in my rank on clay), but i'm not confident enough yet. Half-stake lay if Riba goes in fron should be ok. Or a lay after first set. Daniel can give a fight. 

19.00 - Andreozzi - Bellucci - Bellucci is definitely too low here, but ideally i want him to see go ahead to lay at close to set price in 1st set and then we have 1 set and  a half chance for Andreozzi to get back. Possible 3-setter. Andreozzi will need to improve the serve.

Paris
15.30 - Pavlyuchenkova - Errani - I believe you either wait for lower lay on Pavlyuchenkova or back her on higher odds. I don't see any of this two holding easily, especially not Errani and a good way to handle this trade is to back Pavlyuchenkova with half-stake if broken in early games and trade of if she-breaks back. Match is in Pavlyuchenkova hands today and if she can repeat the performance vs Sharapova the title will be hers. Back Pavlyuchenkova higher and lay her lower with the profit. 3- sets,Pavyluchenkova.