New week is here

Good morning.

Quite some people have requested to have access to my spreadsheet and I hope you did get some benefit from using it. It's still available to get until the end of month, just get in touch with me. Anyway, new week has started and it's the last busy day with many tournaments before Indian Wells will start and will be on for 2 weeks. This week I'm covering both Acapulco tournaments, Sao Paolo (indoor clay), Florianopolis (hard court) and Dubai (ATP,  hard court). In my spreadsheet you'll also find previews for Cherbourg (CH, indoor hard), Guangzhou (CH, hard) and Salinas (CH, clay).

Here are todays previews:

Florianopolis (WTA, hard court)

21.30 - Ormaechea - Haddad Maia (1.17/4.81) - It was last year in Florianopolis that I have seen Haddad Maia for the first time. She looked like a Kvitova doppelganger, very tall, left hander and with a big serve. She had a good run here last year and was close to a surprise win over Czink. At that time I thought we have a new bright prospect for WTA tennis, but after Florianopolis i haven't seen her play anymore (she's still very young) and I was quite disappointed as well with her in first round defeat previous round. Well, she prefers hard courts, so I give her much more chances today. Below 1.20 looks quite ok lay from the start for me here as Ormaechea can drop a game very quickly as she knows she can back quickly as well. I'm laying here from the start and hoping to get a free-bet on Haddad Maia and from there on it's easy to see where it will go. I might also considering relaying Ormaechea below 1.10 early in the 1st set. Haddad Maia can win a set if she'll be focused and even win for her wouldn't surprise me.

Sao Paolo (ATP, indoor clay)

18.00 - Schwartzman - Dutra Silva (1.55/2.44) - Ask yourself, what has Schwartzman done to be such a heavy favorite vs home player in Brazil? If your answer was nothing you are spot on. I mean it's ok that Schwartzman is favorite but he shouldn't be below 1.70 for sure, as Dutra Silva is not a player that will go away by himself. They played 4 times, last 2 wins went into Schwartzman's way while first 2 into Dutra's way. I need to add that all four encounters were on clay and all 4 were tight matches. Dutra will be motivated before the home crowd and may lift his game up a level or two. With everything said it's expected to be another tight match and value is definitely on Brazilian side and i'm going to go for a lay from the start here with option to relay on lower odds. 3-sets is most likely.

Dubai (ATP, hard)

13.00 - Seppi - F.Mayer (2.60/1.48) - Seppi has now lost a couple of games in a row, he was also crippled by some health issues in the beginning of the year (illness), but I believe he is past those problems now. Healthy or not, Seppi is a very bad starter and he is known to go break down in 1st set in majority of his games. Even thou the odds are excellent to lay F.Mayer from the start I'll wait if Seppi can have one of his trademark starts and go break down as that will give us odds around 1.20-1.30 to lay which is great for the start of 1st set. This will be quite a good battle and enjoyable match to watch in my opinion. Mayer was recently having some problems with the shoulder but he's probably ok by now. Lay F.Mayer break or set up will give us a great value on this match. It's 50%/50% match for me and if anyone wins in 2 sets i will be very surprised. 3-sets, Seppi.

Acapulco (ATP, hard)

1.00 - Chardy - Ebden (1.39/2.86) - Odds on Chardy look tempting to take if Ebden will have another match without his main weapon loaded (serve). Ebden was struggling to hit any good serves in in his last 2 matches and he made over 20 df's in last 2 matches. He simply doesn't stand a chance vs Chardy without big serve today. I'm going something small on Chardy (1/5) from the start with option to lay half-stake if Ebden can somehow win 1st set (but only if he'll be serving average, i'm not going against Ebden if his serve will be firing). Probably Chardy in 2 if no big change to better from Ebden.


Acapulco (WTA, hard)

23.00 - Barty - Tsurenko (1.72/2.11) - This opening odds really surprised me a lot. Barty as a favorite? Really? Well, you can never tell, maybe the bookies are right after all. But they (bookies) set Barty as a favorite because of her solid run in Australia (home) and because Tsurenko hasn't achieved much lately, but she has gained some form this week and won 2 good matches. Tsurenko is not one of the reliable players, but i believe she's worth a shot at this odds vs unexperienced Barty. Tsurenko is definietly better player on the baseline, but she'll need to force Barty into baseline tennis and try to play longer points, as I think Barty will like to play short points and go for winners fast. If Tsurenko will be patient then at least a set shouldn't slip away from her. Tsurenko in 2 or 3 is my call.

Straight bets:

Gong@3.39, lost -1.00
Venus@2.26, won 1.26
Agut@1.19, won 0.19
Seppi@2.67, won 0.67
Bakker@4.14, lost -1.00
Arnaboldi@2.35, lost -1.00
Berankis@1.35, won 0.35
Haddad Maia@5.40, lost -1.00
Elias@2.64, won 1.64
Dutra Silva@2.38, won 1.38
Trungelliti@1.85, won 0.85
Jovanovski@1.21, won 0.21
Tsurenko@2.20, lost -1.00

TOTAL: 1.55