New day

Hello.

Another solid day behind me. A lots of matches, but most of them don't look very interesting for me to trade. I'll put some matches on, but I'm not very confident about most of them, so i'll go with half-stakes with many of them (it's written besides the match where i'll play with half-stakes).

Zagreb (ATP, indoor hard)

11.00 - Lacko - Sela (1.81/1.95) - I'm favoring Lacko here a bit if he can repeat a good serving day from yesterday, even thou I really don't know why exactly Lacko is here favorite as he lost recent h2h match to Sela. I'll lay Sela break or set up with half-stake and I'll see where that will bring me. 3-setter with slight edge on Lacko for me. (half-stakes match)

Update: Sela was servingly amazingly in 1st set and took the 1st bp and raced away with the set. In 2nd set Lacko did get one bp before he went 2 breaks down. Straight forward win for Sela. Big loss.

12.00 - Phau -  Youzhny (4.61/1.18) - Youzhny is a defending finalist from last year where he really played some excellent tennis here. He obviously likes this venue and he'll be up for it. Phau will not just simply fold here, that's for sure and he might catch Youzhny cold and rusty and that's what i hope. I'm going on with half-stake on Youzhny if he'll be break behind and i might even add some if he loses the set. I don't see Phau winning in 2 sets but everything is possible with erratic Russian. Youzhny in 2 or 3. (half-stakes match)

Update: Wuuhu, I'm glad I avoided this mess from Russian. Youzhny won 1st set but lost in 3. Big upset, luckily no trades on this one.

12.30 - Berrer - Evans (1.50/2.53) - Hard to call match as Berrer was taken to extremes by the Croatian talented youngster Borna Coric. Actually, Berrer played quite ok, but Coric is the one who impressed me with his play. Anyway, odds look tempting, but I'm a bit worried if Berrer has still enough energy to save this match from break or set down. So i'll be trying to lay Berrer set up and hope Evans can nick the set or even match when. I'm going for half-stakes lay on Berrer if he wins 1st set. I see 3-sets and Berrer to win if his tank will not be empty in the 3rd set. (half-stakes match)

Update: It looked like everything is going into Berrer's way in 1st set, but Evans started 2nd set better and went 5-0 up. Evans won in 3rd set tie-break. Big profit.

17.30 - Kuznetsov - Sijsling (2.81/1.42) - I feel Sijsling is the better played and he really need to play well to beat pumped out Kavcic. But anyway, I don't see this as an easy win for SIjsling. I'll try to get a lay after a good serve from Sijsling (hopefully he starts serving and goes 1-0 up) and then i'll lay and exit at bp or 0-30 to get some profit for lower lays. I still believe Sijsling to win, but it might be a 3-setter. Lay Sijsling on a bit reduced odds from starting ones and work your way from there. Sijsling in 2 or 3. (half-stakes)

Update: Laying Sijsling worked very well, as Kuznetsov took 4-0 lead in 2nd set. He did win in the end as well.

18.30 - Becker - Haas (1.41/2.80) - Haas may start this match a bit cold and rusty, but he's probably eager to play some tennis at last, as I have seen him here in Zagreb from Monday. Becker wasn't actually playing bad vs Gallung, but he had some really bad drops of playing level. He'll need to stay focused all the way tonight and he might make this game tight and interesting. I'll start with half-stake lay on Haas with option to relay if Haas will get an early break. Haas in 3, tight first set, possible tie-break.

Update: Haas made the first break, but Becker made a break back and another on late in the set and won 1st set. Haas won 2nd and 3rd set.

Montpellier (ATP, indoor hard)

12.00 - Nieminen - Herbert (1.52/2.46) -. I didn't watch either of them, but heard some rumours that Nieminen was pathetic vs Nedovyesov. Herbert was ok in his match vs Martinavarr, but that doesn't make me happy about the big-serving boy. I'll do have a try on lay side of captian Nemo (Nieminen) if he'll be set up and odds below 1.20. I see relatively good chance for Herbert to nick the set with his big serves.

Update: Layed Nieminen when he did win 1st set after come-back in tie-break. I wasn't pretty confident in Herbet so I took small profit when Nieminen was 0-30 on his serve and that was a good call. Small profit.

13.30 - Gicquel - Simon (3.65/1.27) - Odds on Simon who can always have a bad start are not for taking, but I'm seeing Simon as the winner here if he feels ok. Gicquel did won Simon in past but when Gicquel was in prime years and Simon only 18, now the situation is reversed. I hope for a standard slow start from Simo n and back him break down or set down. Simon to win in 2 or 3.

Update: Simon went from a very comfortable 5-2 up to 5-6 and lost the tie-breaker. He did came back in 2nd set only to lose next few games and was kicked out by Gicquel. Left my profit on Simon after his break so ended with zero profit and zero loss.  2nd upset of the day.

15.00 - Olivetti - Davydenko (3.17/1.34) - It's obvious Olivetti can only serve and that's about it from him. He'll need to have high 1st serve percentage just to stay in with Davydenko, who will try to convert the chances he'll get. Davydenko should definitely win majority of points when returner will put the ball back.
I'm going for a small back on Davydenko from the start (1/4) and add half-stake if he goes break or even set behind. Davydenko to win.

Update: Two epic chokes for Davydenko here... Olivetti won in 3 sets, but that really was Davydenko's game to take.

16.30 - Brown - Vasselin (3.28/1.32) - Brown is just too erratic player to perform constantly through the entire match. He might have a better start but will fade away and Vasselin has enough experience to beat players like that, especially on home soil. I'll be looking to get Vasselin around 1.60 or break down in 1st set and adding some if he losses 1st set. Vasselin in 2 probably.

Update: Highest odds were when Brown had a bp early in the set, i hesitated and missed the value and ERV won in 2 sets.

20.30 - Janowicz - Mannarino (1.39/2.88) - Mannarino will need to be firing serves all the time to be able to at least stay in with Janowicz. I really don't feel Janowicz performance will drop from the one we saw at Davis Cup matches where he was pretty good. I'm going for a lay if Janowicz will win 1st set and trade out if Mannarino will break or before the TB in 2nd set.

Update: I was already sleeping at this point, but that would looked like a losing trade. JJ in 2.

Vina Del Mar (ATP, clay)


18.00 - Almagro - Alund (1.21/4.18) - At this odds and with Almagro coming back from a shoulder injury and defending zero points (last time he played here was in 2006) lay from the start is a must even thou it might turn out bad. Almagro will probably not want to go deep here, probably he jus wants to test himself a bit and then off to Buenos Aires where he is defending semi final points. Alund can at least take a set and if things don't work for Almagro as they should he can get frustrated very quickly. 3-sets, upset from Alund or even retirement from Almagro.

Update: Alund won 1st set, Almagro played well and came back and won in 3. Best trade of the day.

18.00 - Daniel - Delbonis (3.29/1.32) - Most of the week I was on Daniel side but not today. I'll be waiting if Daniel can break big serving Delbonis then I'll back Delbonis as I don't see Daniel staying in the big league for long. First set might be close then an easier 2nd set for Delbonis. Delbonis to win.

Update: Delbonis won 1st set easily and it looked like a sure win for Delbonis but Daniel won 2nd and 3rd set in a tie-break. What a surprise.

19.30 - Traver - Zeballos (1.87/1.88) - It's not nice to see Zeballos on his tournament being an underdog. I actually didn't watch Traver's match vs Dolgopolov, but he looked ok. Zeballos on the other hand cruised over Lama (not so bad player on clay) and his stats were impressive. I need to go at least with half-stake on Zeballos from the start and hope he can repeat last years performance. It will not be easy, but I believe it. I'm gonna lay Traver if he'll go break up in 1st set or even won 1st set. ZEballos in 2 or 3.

Update: Luckily I missed that one. Zeballos didn't look anything like last year and lost in two easy sets. Would be a big loss trade for me if i would be at the desk.

Straight bets:

Sijsling@1.43, lost -1.00
Youzhny@1.21, lost -1.00
Davydenko@1.39, lost -1.00
Vasselin@1.35, won +0.35
Simon@1.30, lost -1.00
Alund@4.49, lost -1.00
Delbonis@1.36, lost -1.00
Zeballos@2.05, lost -1.00

TOTAL: -6.65