29. 6. 12

No more me

Hello.

Tommorow I'm going to a vacation in Croatia (Istria). I'll be away for a week, so no blog posts, no picks and no trading for you. Perhaps some of you envy me, because I'll be certainly having a good time, but sadly I won't be able to watch any Wimbledon matches from now on... I hope Stepanek wins Wimbledon, or at least Federer or Kohlschreiber, as long as it isn't Djokovic.

I wish you a lots of trading good luck and to be satisfied with your life, which is the most you can wish to someone.

Cheers until then.

28. 6. 12

Wimbledon r2

Hey. Picks were not exactly great yesterday, but still a chance to get to evens if the ones that were reschedueld for today will be right. Here are todays picks and more likely a good trading chances:

12.30 - Goffin - Levine (ATP, Wimbledon), Goffin-1.5sets@2.16, Goffin 4-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3. WIN.
12.30 - Baker - Nieminen (ATP, Wimbledon), Baker to win@1.81, Baker 6-0, 6-2. 6-4. WIN.
12.30 - Vinci - Erakovic (WTA, Wimbledon), Erakovic to win@2.86, Vinci 6-4, 6-3. LOST.
13.30 - Melzer - Lacko (ATP, Wimbledon), Over 38games@1.81, Lacko 6-4, 6-7, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. WIN.
13.30 - Lucic - Bartoli (WTA, Wimbledon), Lucic+6.5games@1.87, Lucic 6-4, 6-3. WIN.
13.30 - Voskoboeva - WIckmayer (WTA, Wimbledon), Voskoboeva to win@2.88, Wickmayer 4-6, 6-4, 8-6. LOST.
13.30 - Ivanovic - Bondarenko (WTA, Wimbledon) Bondarenko+1.5sets@2.28, Ivanovic 6-3, 7-6. LOST.
14.30 - Paire - Dolgopolov (ATP, Wimbledon), Paire+1.5sets@1.90, Paire 7-6, 6-4, 6-4. WIN.
15.00 - Karlovic - Murray (ATP, Wimbledon), Karlovic+2.5sets@2.45, Murray 7-5, 6-7, 6-2, 7-6. WIN.
15.30 - Kubot - Cilic (ATP, Wimbledon), Kubot+2.5sets@1.67, Cilic 7-6, 6-2, 6-1. LOST.
16.00 - Querrey - Raonic (ATP, WImbledon), Over 40games@1.97,

Final.

27. 6. 12

Trading fail

Hey. Picks went ok yesterday, but my trading was disastrous. Firstly I stayed too long on F.Lopez to win, then I had one of the most bad lucked trades of my life with Knapp vs Baltacha. I started ok, with a lay on Baltacha and when Baltacha went break ahead i did another lay on her. Knapp break back, hold and break her again to win the set. I was in lovely profit then, so I hedged my profit at around +186% and then I just for the fun put all my green on Knapp just for one point and then it happened. Knapp slipped and felt nastily on the floor, injured and my profit down to +5%. I put my money on Baltacha as It looked like Knapp will withdraw. Well, Baltacha won 2nd set and after winning it Baltacha took a medical for her knee. My green was going down to zero and on 3 bps for Knapp in 3rd set I switched, because Baltacha looked really worried about her injury, but no, she saved all 3 BPs, holded and then bageled Knapp. True story...

PICKS:

11.30 - F. Mayer - Petzschner (ATP, Wimbledon), F.Mayer-3games@2.05, F.Mayer 3-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2, 6-4. LOST.
11.30 - Monaco - Chardy (ATP, Wimbledon), Monaco-1.5sets@2.20, Monaco 6-2, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6. WIN.
11.30 - Govortsova - Beck (WTA, Wimbledon), Beck to win@1.81, GOvortsova 6-3, 3-6, 6-3. LOST.
11.30 - Lisicki - Jovanovski (WTA, Wimbledon), Lisicki-1.5sets@1.66, Lisicki 4-6, 6-2, 8-6. LOST.
13.30 - Troicki - Klizan (ATP, Wimbledon), Klizan+2.5sets@1.92, Troicki 6-4, 4-6, 5-7, 7-6, 6-4. WIN.
13.30 - Troicki - Klizan (ATP, Wimbledon), Klizan to win@5.90, Troicki 6-4, 4-6, 5-7, 7-6, 6-4. LOST.
13.30 - Janowicz - Gulbis (ATP, Wimbledon). Gulbis to win@1.71, Janowicsz 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6, 9-7. LOST.
13.30 - Vesnina - Radwanska (WTA, Wimbledon), Vesnina+5games@1.97, Radwanska 6-2, 6-1. LOST.
14.00 - Hsieh - Foretz-Gacon (WTA, Wimbledon), Foretz-Gacon+4.5games@1.92, Hsieh 6-4, 6-1. LOST.
15.30 - Petrova - Babos (WTA, Wimbledon), Babos+6games@1.80,
16.00 - Verdasco - Zemlja (ATP, Wimbledon), Zemlja+2.5sets@1.75, Verdasco 7-6, 7-6, 3-6, 6-3. WIN.
16.30 - Becker - Stepanek (ATP, Wimbledon), Over 38games@1.91
17.00 - McHale - Johansson (WTA; Wimbledon), McHale-4.5games@2.00, McHale 7-5, 7-5. LOST.
17.30 - Kirilenko - Domingues-Lino (WTA, Wimbledon), Kirilenko-1.5sets@1.95, Kirilenko 6-1, 6-2. WIN.
18.00 - Tatishvili - Giorgi (WTA, WImbledon), Tatishivli to win@2.65, Giorgi 6-3, 6-1. LOST.
18.00 - Malisse - Simon (ATP, Wimbledon), Malisse to win@2.17, Malisse 6-4, 6-4, 7-6. WIN.

Final...


26. 6. 12

Wimbledon part 2

Hello.

Well, quite embarrassing failure with the picks yesterday, due trade-wise the day was great and majority of my picks went at least for some time into my way. Here are today picks:

12.30 - Roger-Vasselin - Garcia-Lopez (ATP, Wimbledon), Roger-Vasselin-1.5sets@1.84, Garcia-Lopez 6-7, 6-3, 7-6, 5-7, 10-8. LOST.
12.30 - Paire - Ebden (ATP, Wimbledon), Paire-3.5games@1.90, Paire 6-1, 6-3, 6-7, 6-3. WIN.
12.30 - Dubois - Zheng (WTA. Wimbledon), Dubois+5games@1.79, Zheng 4-6, 6-4, 6-3. WIN.
12.30 - Robson - Schiavone (WTA, Wimbledon), Robson to win@2.22, Schiavone 2-6, 6-4, 6-4. LOST.
14.30 - Oprandi - Begu (WTA, Wimbledon), Oprandi to win@2.10, Oprandi 7-6, 6-4. WIN.

Matches are starting. I'll add some picks for 16.30, 17.30 and 18.30 matches later when I'll have a break from trading.

25. 6. 12

Wimbledon time

Hello there. Today Wimbledon is starting and we have huuuuuuge selection of match and in my opinion there is a lots of value. That's why I'll pick a lots of matches and I will of course trade them too. I'll just start with the picks then I'll write down where i see value in trading and that will be all for todays post.

PICKS:

12.30 - Verdasco - Wang (ATP, Wimbledon), Wang+2.5sets@2.20, Verdasco 7-6, 6-4, 7-5. LOST.
12.30 - Martic - Lisicki (WTA, Wimbledon), Martic to win@2.38, Lisicki 6-4, 6-2. LOST.
12.30 - A.Radwanska - Rybarikova (WTA, Wimbledon), Rybarikova+6.5games@2.33, Radwanska 6-3, 6-3. WIN.
12.30 - Li - Pervak (WTA, Wimbledon), Pervak+5.5games@2.10, Li 6-3, 6-1. LOST.
12.30 - Parmentier - Cirstea (WTA, Wimbledon), Parmentier to win@2.52, Cirstea 6-4, 6-1. LOST.
14.30 - Nalbandian - Tipsarevic (ATP, Wimbledon), Tipsarevic to win@1.70, Tipsarevic 6-4, 7-6, 6-2. WIN.
14.30 - Becker - Blake (ATP, Wimbledon), Becker-2.5sets@2.50, Becker 6-7, 6-4, 6-0, 6-4. LOST.
14.30 - Mathieu - Simon (ATP, Wimbledon), Mathieu+1.5sets@2.10, Mathieu retired. VOID.
14.30 - Peng - Zaniewska (WTA, WImbledon), Peng-1.5sets@2.13, Peng 6-2, 6-7, 6-3. LOST.
14.30 - Hlavackova - Chang (WTA, Wimbledon), Hlavackova-3games@1.86, Hlavackova 6-1, 6-2. WIN.
14.30 - Rus - Doi (WTA, Wimbledon), Rus to win@2.50, Rus 7-5, 6-3. WIN.
16.30 - Harrison - Lu (ATP, Wimbledon), Lu+3games@1.85, Harrison 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2. LOST.
16.30 - Monaco - L. Mayer (ATP, Wimbledon), L.Mayer+1.5sets@1.88, Monaco 6-4, 7-6, 7-6. LOST.
16.30 - Petzschner - Kavcic (ATP, Wimbledon), Kavcic+2.5sets@1.91, Petzschner 6-4, 6-4, 6-2. LOST.
18.00 - Zvonareva - Barthel (WTA, Wimbledon), Zvonareva to win@2.20
18.00 -Jankovic - Clijsters (WTA, Wimbledon), Jankovic+1.5sets@2.00, Clijsters 6-2, 6-4. LOST.
18.00 - Gallovits-Hall - Soler-Espinosa (WTA, Wimbledon), Gallovits-Hall to win@2.15, Soler-Espinosa 4-6, 6-4, 6-4. LOST.

This is it what concerns picks. From trading view you can use this tips as I believe most of the matches I picked will go at least for a short time into the way it's written it should go.

22. 6. 12

One day of break from the picks

Hello.

I woke up too late yesterday to made any picks, so I didn't even bother to. I did a little bit of trading and that's all. Wimbledon is really near now, just the closing stages of Eastbourne and Hertogenbosch and we are off... I gladly hope scoreboards will be working fine. Here are todays picks:

11.00 - Petzschner - Malisse (ATP, Hertogenbosch), Malisse-1.5games@1.82, Petzschner 6-4, 7-5. LOST.
12.00 - Matosevic - Darcis (ATP, Eastbourne), Darcis to win@2.00, Darcis 6-2, 7-6. WIN.
12.00 - Fognini - Roddick (ATP, Eastbourne), Fognini+1.5sets@2.58, Roddick 6-3, 3-6, 7-5. WIN.
14.00 - Kohlschreiber - Seppi (ATP, Eastbourne), Kohlschreiber to win@1.76, Seppi 7-5, 2-1. LOST.

Final for today.

20. 6. 12

Late picks and nothing else

Time is running out since first matches will start any second now...

UPDATE: Stupid me...I thought that Mayer is Florian Mayer and not Leonardo. Well, not going with +4.5games with Leonardo...

11.00 - Rochus - Sijsling (ATP, Hertogenbosch), Rochus to win@1.96, Sijsling 6-4, 7-6. LOST.
12.00 - Mladenovic - Pfizenmaier (WTA, Wimbledon), Mladenovic to win@2.35, Mladenovic 6-3, 6-4. WIN.
12.00 - Voegele - Kr. Pliskova (WTA, Wimbledon), Voegele to win@2.05, Kr. Pliskova 4-6, 6-3, 6-4. LOST.
12.00 - Glatch - Rezai (WTA, Wimbledon), Glatch to win@1.87, Glatch 7-6, 6-2. WIN.
13.00 - Cipolla - Roger-Vasselin (ATP, Hertogenbosch), Cipolla+1.5sets@2.42, Roger-Vasselin 6-2, 3-6, 6-1. WIN.
14.00 - Woerle - Vandeweghe (WTA, Wimbledon), Woerle to win@3.29, Vandeweghe 6-4, 6-4. LOST.

15.30 - Baghdatis - Darcis (ATP, Hertogenbosch), Darcis+1.5sets@1.85, Darcis 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. WIN.
16.30 - Arvidsson - Rus (WTA, Hertogenbosch), Arvidsson to win@1.95, Arvidsson 6-4, 6-1. WIN.

Final for today...

18. 6. 12

Just some picks

Some value picks that crossed my path today are here:

11.00 - Kubot - Sela (ATP, Hertogenbosch), Kubot to win@1.55 (Double stake), Kubot 6-2, 6-1. WIN.
12.00 - Istomin - Llodra (ATP, Eastbourne), Istomin to win@2.61, Istomin 6-4, 6-3. WIN.
12.00 - Darcis - Ebden (ATP, Eastbourne), Darcis to win@2.25, Darcis 6-2, 6-4. WIN
12.00 - Zheng - Zakopalova (WTA, Eastbourne), Zakopalova to win@1.85, Zakopalova 6-3, 4-6, 6-3. WIN.
12.00 - Makarova - Kvitova (WTA, Eastbourne), Makarova+1.5sets@2.45, Makarova 7-5, 6-4. WIN:
14.00 - Moore - Sema (WTA, Wimbledon), Moore to win@2.31, Sema 4-6, 7-6, 6-4. LOST.
14.30 - Clijsters - Bondarenko (WTA, Hertogenbosch), Bondarenko to win@5.00, Clijsters 6-2, 6-1. LOST.
16.30 - Troicki - Malisse (ATP, Hertogenbosch), Malisse to win@1.83, Malisse 7-6, 6-2. WIN.
20.00 - Duckworth - Gicquel (ATP, Wimbledon), Duckworth to win@2.10, Gicquel 6-3, 6-7, 6-4. LOST.
20.00 - Bautista-Agut - Bumka (ATP, Wimbledon), Bautista-Agut to win@2.04, Bautista-Agut 6-3, 7-6. WIN.

Final for today.

Finally at home and with time

Hello there. Finally i'm at home and with plenty of time to trade and do picks. I'm short on time, so i won'be wasting any more time with text as games will start in 20 minutes and I need to be prepared. Here are picks:

11.00 - Falla - Ramirez-Hidalgo (ATP, Hertogenbosch), Ramirez-Hidalgo+4.5games@1.83, Falla 6-4, 6-4. WIN.
11.00 - Benesova - Begu (WTA, Hertogenbosch), Begu to win@2.80, Begu 6-4, 6-2. WIN.
12.00 - Smyczek - Silva D.R. (ATP, Wimbledon), Smyczek-1.5sets@2.00, Smyczek 7-6, 6-4. WIN.
13.00 - U.Radwanska - Pervak (WTA, Hertogenbosch), Pervak to win@2.57, Radwanska 4-6, 6-1, 6-4. LOST.
14.00 - Harrison - Pospisil (ATP, Eastbourne), Harrison to win@1.80, Harrison 3-6, 7-6, 7-6. WIN.
14.30 - Tursunov - Petzschner (ATP, Hertogenbosch), Tursunov to win@1.95, Petzschner 6-3, 6-2. LOST.
16.30 - Ito - Fucsovics (ATP, Hertogenbosch), Ito to win@1.48 (Double stake), Ito 3-6, 6-3, 7-6. WIN.


That's it, I'll maybe add something on later...

15. 6. 12

No me, no blog

Hello. I'm going home today, but I'll be occupied with some soccer activities in our town (our kids have some kind of soccer camp), so I'll be away from tennis and away from computer for two days. I'll be back on saturday. Have fun and a lot of luck to everyone.

13. 6. 12

No posts

Hello. Long time no posts from me, since I'm very busy in the morning and tired at the end of day. I decided to wake up much sooner today (before 7 in the morning) to write something down. First here are some picks:

10.00 - Hogenkamp - Cabeza-Candela (Bad Gastein), Cabeza-Candela to win@1.77, Cabeza-Candela 6-4, 6-3. WIN.
11.00 - Scholl - Begu (WTA, Bad Gastein), Begu-5games@1.97, Scholl 6-3, 6-4. LOST.
12.00 - Kubot - Kohlschreiber (ATP, Halle), Kubot+1.5sets@1.82, Kohlschreiber 6-7, 6-1, 6-3. WIN.
13.30 - Mayr - Wickmayer (WTA, Bad Gastein), Mayr to win@2.00, Wickmayer 7-6, 6-3. LOST.
13.30 - Anderson - F.Lopez (ATP, London), F.Lopez to win@1.71, Anderson 7-6, 7-6. LOST.
14.00 - Zheng - Hlavackova (WTA, Birmingham), Hlavackova to win@2.25, Zheng 6-4, 6-1. LOST.
14.00 - Oudin - Vesnina (WTA, Birmingham), Oudin to win@2.23, Oudin 6-0, 6-2. WIN.


If i won't be satisfied with this picks I may add some picks from later games also.

TRADE OF THE DAY:
As I run out of time to write down proper analysis, I'll be quick and short.
12.00 - Kubot - Kohlschreiber (ATP, Halle)
Kohlschreiber is a defending champion here in Halle, but Kubot plays some of his best tennis in grass (he progressed very far in Wimbledon). Price is short on Kohlschreiber who started slow and was broken vs Brown in 1st round. He managed to get back (due to unproper shows from Brown) and I think Kubot won't allow him to have a bad start. Starting price on Kohlschreiber is pretty layable as the price will just go up until they will reach TB, that is also my exit point. And with the green I'll have until that I'll lay Kohlschreiber again if he will win TB, else I'll just leave it. Can't call a winner, but I see a 3 setter here.


12. 6. 12

It's rainy day

Hello. I didn't (and I'm glad I didn't) write a trade of the day for yesterday, because most of the matches (except Halle) were cancelled due to rain. Doesn't look very rosy either today. We had seen some of the early matches in Bad Gastein, but it was rained off now and won't be on probably for entire day. England doesn't look promising (Birmingham & London) too, so I won't be adding any picks, because even the ones from yesterday probably won't be finished today.

In trade of the day section I'll just offer you 3 thoughts for today in Halle (ATP, grass):
Becker will most likely win against Troicki, could be tight, but I guess he will it.
Also Haas is definitely a winner for me vs young Tomic.
And the last, Smyczek to put some trouble to Mayer, and maybe getting 1st set, but Mayer will win it in the end.

That's all folks for today.

11. 6. 12

Buuuusy week ahead

Hello there. Looks like there will be very busy week ahead of us. I'm still at the rehabilitation center in Zreče, so it's even more busy for me, as I'm having some therapies all over the day and It's very hard to find some hours of free time to do some trading and mostly to prepare for trading which is usually more time consuming then actual trading. We have shitloads of matches today as there are 4 tournaments (5 if we include Roland Garros finals) running (Bad Gastein, WTA, Birmingham WTA, Queens, ATP, Halle, ATP) so really a lot of options. At looking at the odds and the players I must pick out those players: Zheng, Cornet, Mahut, Stebe, Doi, Falconi, Kamke, Riske, Bemelmans, Dodig, Watson - they are all quite big favourites (below 1.50) and I think at least one of them will lose, and 50% of them will trade higher then evens (over 2.00) which means if you lay all of them and put hedge on 2.00 you will be in profit... I'm not totally sure which ones I'll trade but they are all quite worth a go. But before I'll reveal my trade of the day are here daily picks:

PICKS:

12.00 - Gronert - Birnerova (WTA, Bad Gastein), Birnerova-4games@1.87, Gronert 6-2, 6-0. LOST.
12.00 - Nieminen - Kubot (ATP, Halle), Kubot to win@2.20, Kubot 6-4, 6-4. WIN.
13.30 - Pervak - Arrubarrena-Vecino (WTA, Bad Gastein), Pervak to win@1.82, Pervak 4-6, 6-3, 7-5. WIN.
13.30 - Bolleli - Gulbis (ATP, London), Gulbis to win@1.76, Bolleli 6-3, 6-4. LOST.
14.00 - Foretz-Gacon - Daniilidou (WTA, Birmingham), Daniilidou-3games@1.92, Foretz-Gacon 6-4, 6-2. LOST.
15.30 - Broady - Muller (ATP, London), Broady+5.5games@2.10, Muller 6-2, 6-1. LOST.
15.30 - Hewitt - Karlovic (ATP, London), Hewitt to win@1.80, Karlovic 6-2, 6-2. LOST.
15.30 - Ormeaechea - Watson-Heather (WTA, Birmingham), Ormaechea+5.5games@2.00, Watson-Heather 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. WIN.
15.30 - Karatanctheva - Tanasugarn (WTA, Birmingham), Tanasugarn to win@1.84, Karatantcheva 6-4, 6-2. LOST.
17.30 - Raonic - Petzschner (ATP, Halle), Raonic-1.5sets@1.55 (Double stake), Raonic 7-5, 7-6. WIN.


High chance I'll still add something on later. Trade of the day will be up a bit later for one of the matches over 15.00h.

8. 6. 12

Too busy to post

Hello there. I was simply to occupied today to post anything on. Anyway, it wasn't a lot of options, since most of the tournaments are going close to the finals now. Also EURO 2012 is starting today. I see draw of Poland vs Greece and Russians to beat Czechs. And of course, Djokovic vs Federer, where I would love to see that year 2011 would repeat, but it would be hard. But definitely, the price at which I layed (1.54) was a good entry, so I'll handle things from then on. I hope it will be a good match...

7. 6. 12

Good day, bad day, what's after that?

Howdy. Picks went quite bad, after a great day two days backs with 4 or 5 winners. Trade of the day went ok again, even thou I didn't exactly followed it, but in the end (sigh) I managed to green it after Murray took the second set in a tie-breaker. I don't know when was the last time I saw so many breaks of serve as I have seen at Murray vs Ferrer, dreadfull from Scott, really and Ferrer is well deserved into semis. But needless to say is, that their level of play wasn't nowhere near good, so I see Nadal proceeding into final with ease.

PICKS:

12.30 - Schoorel - Vagnozzi (CH, Caltanissetta), Vagnozzi+1.5sets@1.92, Schoorel 6-4, 6-2. LOST.
12.30 - Muguruza - U. Radwanska (ITF, Nottingham), Muguruza+1.5sets@1.70, Radwanska 6-0, 6-3. LOST.
13.30 - Zopp - De Scheeper (CH, Nottingham), Zopp-2games@1.90
14.00 - Stosur - Errani (WTA, Roland Garros), Stosur-1.5sets@2.10, Errani 7-5, 1-6, 6-3. LOST.

TRADE OF THE DAY:

14.00 - Errani - Stosur (WTA, Roland Garros)
Preview: Stosur a big favourite here. She is starting at around 1.40-1.45 on Betfair and i think the price would not reach much over 1.60 here. H2H is 5:0 for Stosur. Stosur's big first serve will help her get easy point and on 2nd serve she'll serve kick serve to push Errani far back (as I don't believe Errani will step forward and will be hitting her serve winners) and allow her to finish her with strong forehand afterwards. It's true that Errani had a very good results in the past, but so does Sammy who hasn't lost a set yet. I believe Errani will be trying, but she will be just to short to take anything more then a couple of games in each set and she might start to think more about her doubles match when she will get a set down. Stosur to win in two sets.

Trade: I'll put half-stake back on Stosur from the start. I'll at other part on higher odds (around 1.70) if that would be possible else I'll just let me green roll till the end. That's it, keeping it simple.

6. 6. 12

Winning mentallity

Hello there.

We had a very dramatic mens quarter finals evening in Paris yesterday. First we saw very angry Federer on court (a rare occasion) vs Del Potro. Del Potro won first 2 sets and then he run out of gas and was also handicapped by his injured knee. Federer took control and won last 3 sets very easily. Tsonga was with 1 foot already in semi finals as Djokovic saved 2 match points at 2-1 in sets down. After saving 2 MP's Djokovic was down 4-1 in Tie-break but Tsonga was unable to win it. Djokovic won the tie-break and cruised through last set to win it 3-2. Picks turned out great with all the winners and trade of the day went good as well. I'm not expecting another so succesfull day, but it won't hurt. I still owe you last month results, I'll do them when I'll have some spare time, because there are a lot of activities here where I am now.

PICKS:

13.30 - Bachinger - Greul (CH, Furth), Bachinger to win@1.55 (Double stake), Greul 3-6, 6-4, 7-5. LOST.
14.00 - Kanepi - Sharapova (WTA, Roland Garros), Kanepi+5games@1.81, Sharapova 6-2, 6-3. LOST.
14.00 - Sema - Falconi (ITF, Nottingham), Falconi-1.5sets@2.55, Falconi 7-6, 6-4. WIN.
16.00 - Ferrer - Murray (ATP, Roland Garros), Ferrer-5games@2.00, Ferrer 6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 6-2. WIN.
16.00 - Almagro - Nadal (ATP, Roland Garros), Almagro+2.5sets@3.20, Nadal 7-6, 6-2, 6-3. LOST.

Final for today.

TRADE OF THE DAY
Well, it must be obvious, that I'll take Ferrer vs Murray as a pick of the day.

16.00 - Murray - Ferrer (ATP, Roland Garros)
Preview: Much disliked Scotsman Andy Murray (ranked 4), takes on Spaniard David Ferrer, a true icon of fair-play and fighting spirit (ranked 6) on clay. They have played 9 times before, with last match in London's ATP WTF last year where Ferrer won. H2H Murray leads 5-4, but on clay Ferrer leads 3-0 with 2 wins in 2010 and one in 2006. Much of the punting society is today on Murray, simply because Ferrer is starting at 1.60 which is obviously too low, even if Murray is really injured (but, does anyone still believe that?). Murray's wins so far in Grand Slam were easy, once he cracked the opponnet it was just a cruise ride for him. This will be very different today, as Ferrer is mentally very stable tennis player and won't quit even if he'll be 5-0 down, so Murray will need to fight for every game and every ball. Motivation will be high, even thou they face unclimable wall in person of Rafael Nadal. Ferrer played very good so far, still hasn't lost a set and his wins very very easy (Lacko, Granollers, YOuzhny, Paire). Actually, he is very impressive this year, even thou he hasn't won a tournament yet, he lost only to Federer (Madrid, QF), Nadal (Rome, finals and Barcelona finals) and (surprisingly) against Belluci in 1st round of Monte Carlo. Everything speaks in favour of Ferrer, except the low price on him, but in 5 sets he should outcome as the winner. Ferrer 3-1 would be my call.

Trade: As I have a strong feeling Ferrer will win this match and especially take first set (Murray started badly vs Nieminen and vs Gasquet), the quick back on Ferrer will be needed from the start. I'll withdraw some of the money if I'll see Murray being in control (unlikely), else I'll just ride my green until the end. If Murray will take first set then I'll have some red, but I'll put another stake on higher odds (maybe even laying Murray if he 'll be favourite) and wait that Ferrer gets to 1-1. Ferrer to win 3-1.


5. 6. 12

Day of the bagel

Warm afternoon for all of you readers. Another big upset yesterday, as Yaroslava Shvedova (ranked around 140) kicked out last year Roland Garros champion Na Li. And not only kicked her out, she even bageled her in third set, after she was set down. Speaking of bagels, we were able to see 5 of them yesterday (Nadal 2x, Shvedova 1x, Kanepi 1x, Ferrer 1x) and that is really worrying me. Ok, not that Nadal wins 6-0 to some lesser player, but that we see on tight matches 6-0's, 6-1's or quick 6-2's, because that means that one of the players just gives up or is mentally totally down and can't even play normally. This shouldn't happen on highest level, but sadly it is. Only around 5 players are now solid enough you can trust them.

Here are todays picks:

13.15 Kr. Pliskova - Daniilidou (ITF, Nottingham), Pliskova to win@2.15, Pliskova 7-6, 6-4. WIN.
14.00 - Errani - Kerber (WTA, Roland Garros), Errani to win@2.38, Errani 6-3, 7-6. WIN.
14.00 - Stosur - Cibulkova (ATP, Roland Garros), Stosur to win@1.73, Stosur 6-4, 6-1. WIN.
16.00 - Federer - Del Potro (ATP, Roland Garros), Federer to win@1.37 (Triple stake), Federer 3-6, 6-7, 6-2, 6-0, 6-1. WIN.

Slight chance I will put some ITF/Challenger pick later on.

Trade of the day:
14.00 - Errani - Kerber (WTA, Roland Garros)
Preview: Nothing much to add about Errani as I posted her as a trade of the day against Ivanovic already. She had surprised me for two times now, first with an excellent comeback vs Ivanovic and then with a great (and smart) play and win vs slow Kuznetsova. I thing today Errani with her determination and with fighting spirit (not giving up for any point) will make it very, very, very hard for young German to win this match. Kerber (mostly because of her rank) stands her as a small favourite. I think there are more chances for Errani to win today, as Kerber is not at her best form lately, as she is doing way too much unforced errors to win a match vs Errani. But you can never know, we have seen some good results lately from girls and in the next round they were just a mere shadow from the previous round. I hope that won't happen to Errani. It will be a game with a lots of breaks (at least 3 per set) so don't chick out of your position too fast.

Trade: I will start with a half-stake lay on Kerber from start and I'll add some more if Kerber will get a flying start. If Errani will start better it will be hard for Kerber to come back... I see Errani winning in 2 tight or 3 sets.

4. 6. 12

Time is flying

Jesus christ, how is time flying... Unbelievable, I'm unemployed sod and my day breezes past like it would last 1 hour not 24 hours... Yesterday we have another old injury trick who proved succesfull. Del Potro (as Murray before him) played a dead man for a set, market believed he will retire any time, but with that gesture he just put Berdych out of the momentum and relaxed him a bit and then he destroyed him in 3rd set like a little child (double break). 4th set was suspended due to darkness and I believe that was the best thing for Berdych, as he was completely lost in the court and would be broken in the first game if they would continue. Anyway, as I have said yesterday, I'm now living at some spa-resort-medical center (very beautiful) and will be here for next 14 days. So, cheers for me, I will post you some pictures from here soon... But, back to the bussiness, here are todays picks:

PICKS:

11.00 - Almagro - Tipsarevic (ATP, Roland Garros), Almagro to win@1.53 (Double stake), Almagro 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. WIN.
13.30 - Sharapova - Zakopalova (WTA, Roland Garros), Zakopalova+7games@2.03, Sharapova 6-4, 6-7, 6-2. WIN.
15.30 - Gasquet - Murray (ATP, Roland Garros), Gasquet to win@2.50, Murray 1-6, 6-4, 6-2, 6-1. LOST.
19.00 - Kanepi - Rus (WTA, Roland Garros), Kanepi-1.5sets@1.63 (Double stake), Kanepi 6-2, 4-6, 6-0. LOST.

TRADE OF THE DAY:

15.30 - Gasquet - Murray (ATP, Roland Garros)
Preview: This will be a cracking match, I just hope Murray's health issues have resolved. They have played last match few weeks back where Gasquet won in 3 sets. Murray struggled in first round vs Nieminen and most of the people believed he will retire, but he did not, he just took a medical and then thrashed Nieminen, who was obviously with his mind already in the second round and didn't give any resistance at all. His next match was a quite easy win vs Giraldo which may look like his injury problems are over. But, anyway, we all know Murray, he will whine about pain, injuries, etc, when he will be behind or when his game won't work as he would like. Murray starts around 1.60 and I'll be laying him from the start (full-stake) as I believe if Gasquet starts stronger, Murray may again start to think about his (back) pain and would maybe want to retire... Gasquet played some incredible tennis after he lost set vs Haas, and 2nd, 3rd and 4th set it was just Gasquet on court and I believe if he will play that kind of tennis today, he has all the chances to wipe Murray out. Definitely Gasquet wants to be the one who will be dictating the game and forcing Murray to do all the running. If Gasquet will want to play long rallies, then he is about to lose in 3 sets as Murray is more consistent player. Crowd will be on Gasquet side which could be the key factor as Murray could get annoyed very fast and when he is annoyed he is below 50% of his skill.

Trade: I'll lay Murray from the start and I could add another lay if I see Murray getting first set in very tight fight. I will be greening or reding out if Murray will be very up for this match and if he will look healthy and mentally fit.

3. 6. 12

Rehab time

Hello. I just arrived into rehabilitation (physio-therapy center) center for my knee. I'll be staying here for around 14 days. Don't worry, I have already fixed my internet connection, so I'll be posting things normally. Stay tuned for tommorows picks and trade of the day.

1. 6. 12

July, welcome

Morning. Another great day at picks to end not so bright month, which will end with small loss. Trade of the day didn't go exactly as planned, but my faith in Zakopalova has given me nice return, as I had two full-stake lays on Kirilenko in first set (second lay was more planned for the start of 2nd set), but Zakopalova made a terrific comeback in 1st set from 0-4 down to 6-4. Not a lot of promising matches today, but I'm sure there will be plenty of opportunities for picks and for good trades. First the picks:

PICKS:

13.00 - Petrova - Stosur (WTA, Roland Garros), Petrova+1.5sets@1.91, Stosur 6-3, 6-3. LOST.
13.00 - Garrigues - Martic (WTA, Roland Garros), Martic to win@2.20, Martic 6-2, 6-1. WIN.
15.00 - Del Potro - Cilic (ATP, Roland Garros), Cilic+1.5sets@2.52, Del Potro 3-0. LOST.
15.00 - Simon - Wawrinka (ATP, Roland Garros), Wawrinka to win@1.77, Wawrinka 7-5, 6-7, 6-7, 6-3, 6-2. WIN.

That's it for today.

At trade of the day I'm thinking about Petrova Stosur match or Errani vs Ivanovic. I would rather take any of the later matches (Cilic-Del Potro or Goffin-Kubot), but sadly I'll not be at home for those matches.

TRADE OF THE DAY:

11.00 - Ivanovic - Errani (WTA, Roland Garros)

Preview: Ivanovic (13) vs Errani (27) suggest a tight match. They have played twice in year 2009 with both wins in straight sets to Serbian (grass, clay). But situation changed vastly in last 3 years, as Ivanovic was ranked 8 in 2009 and Errani around 40, so we see that Errani was gaining ranks and Ivanovic going up the ranks. Fact that Errani has played in last 6 months 21 games and lost just 2 of them speak for itself. In same time period Ivanovic played 9 matches, and won 6 and lost 3. Sadly Errani has lost a bit of her momentum in her last two matches as she dropped a set to Dellacqua and had some minor problems with Oudin. Ivanovic on other hand was breezing through her opponents and lost just 6 games in round 1 and 2 together (Peer and Arrubarrena-Vecino). Her 2012 clay results are great too, even thou she didn't progressed past round 16, but her loses were against superior opponents (Sharapova in Rome, Azarenka in Madrid and Barthel in Stuttgart). Errani won 3 clay tournaments this year (Barcelona with scalps of Goerges and Cibulkova, Budapest and Acapulco with scalps of Vinci and Pennetta). Saying that, Errani has not beat any player inside top 10 on clay this year, the highest ranked was Goerges at rank of 15. Style of play from Ivanovic and Errani is really different like day and night, while Errani is a baseline grinder who just doesn't want to give up with UE's close to zero, Ivanovic will try to attack with her great forehand shot which will be just too much for Errani if she will keep errors down as much as she can. Ivanovic could be problematic on serve, but lately she has improved that a lot too. Bottom line is: Ivanovic is a better and more skillfull player, who will win if she will attack her and if she will hit enough winners and keep errors down, else Errani might punish her for the errors she is making and mentally Ivanovic could also go down quicker then Errani. I see tight first set, with both girls ahead for some time and in the end we will see Ivanovic taking first set. I see great chance for Errani to come back if Ivanovic will relax way to much and then again, Ivanovic will probably get herself together and win the 3rd set. Definitely will not be walk over for her... Ivanovic 2-1.

Trade: I'll start with a half-stake lay on Ivanovic (1.47), but will have always in mind to escape out of trade with minimal red quicky if Ivanovic will start better. If Errani will get an early break I'll stick with lay on Ivanovic until I'll see her coming back. Then I'll hedge the green, back Ivanovic with half stake and wait for comeback. If that will happen that will be enough for me and I'll leave the match alone.