Welsh Open Snooker

Yesterday I made a mistake in trying to force the Lazyman trade in two matches. I read back my notes and said I wouldn't do this but I ignored my own advice and lost. The matches I picked were actually very close. Stevens was just 1 shot away from forcing a decider and a winning trade and Tom Ford threw away plenty of chances to put Lee under pressure. The problem here was the format, 4 frames is just not enough time to recover a trade if a player takes a 2-0 lead as was the case in both these matches. I shall not be trading these matches in the future with this strategy.

Today is much better and I can see the Lazyman working well in the two lunchtime sessions.

13:30 - Ronnie O’Sullivan 2.02 v Judd Trump 1.96 - H2H 3-4

The bookies are split on this one with half putting Ronnie as fav and a -1.5 hcap. The others have Judd as fav with a -1.5 hcap. I think Judd's the man to win this after destroying Bingham yesterday and he's in with a real chance of lifting the title.

Trade

Lays @1.76 on both. (Full-fat stakes)

13:30 - Shaun Murphy 1.99 v Mark Allen 2.00 - H2H 5-2

Another split opinion from the bookies on the -1.5 hcap line. The head to heads are in Murphy's favour and he won their last meeting in a decider.  I'm hoping it will be close again. Allen is in probably the better form of the two and I fancy him to edge it.

Trade

Lays @1.76 on both. (Full-fat stakes)

19:00 - Stephen Maguire1.98  v Mark Selby 1.98

Looking at the odds this looks like a layzman trade BUT for me it seems risky. I refer to my note from yesterday - 'note to self - Maguire outside bet for world championships'. Selby is not carrying the mantle of World #1 with any ease and the quicker he losses the top spot the quicker he'll return to form. Maguire on the other hand is in rude form and if he can just become a little more clinical in his finishing he could be a world beater.

Trade

Lays @1.76 on both. (Low-fat stakes)

Masters Snooker - Jan 19

12:30 - O'Sullivan 1.83 (13) v Trump 2.18 (8)

I'm looking forward to this one. Two of the world's most exciting players go head to head in a 'blink and you'll miss it' quarter final clash.  The bookies have O'Sullivan as the favourite for this one but I'm not so sure. Betfair seems to also have the 'Ronnie' factor with punters getting behind the Rocket, I think more because of his fame and what he's done in the past rather than his true chances in this match. Ronnie will be looking to avenge his defeat in their last meeting and it won't be so easy for Trump who caught him by surprise last time out.

I think it I will be close, particularly if Ronnie has his long game firing, but I'm going with Trump the young pretender to win. Should be a great trading match particularly in the first few frames.

Update: An excellent game of snooker with the two highest breaks in the tournament. Ronnie didn't do much wrong but Judd went in the interval 4-0 up. Ronnie picked up 2 frames but was unlucky to lose 6-2 a scoreline which doesn't do justice to how close this match really was.  


From a trading perspective this was quite lucrative with my lay on Ronnie at the start never looking  really in doubt. I took advantage of a couple of swings and plenty of scalping opportunities as Judd's price bounced between 1.10 and 1.20. 

Masters Snooker - Jan 18

As I write Selby is 4-1 up against Lee and will soon be 5-1 ahead. That'll be another opening match going with the favourite. Not brilliant for trading but it does set-up some good 2nd round matches which could be very close.

Tonight's game will either be very close or completely one-sided.

7pm - Carter (7) 2.16  v Dott (10) 1.84
A week ago Carter was favourite for this match but with his ongoing health issues he is considering retirement after this tournament. That'll be a real shame for the talented and likeable player. Carter has been off the boil and hasn't picked up a ranking title since 2010, he's 2-3 down in the head to heads and Dott is the form player. Of the two Ali's, the more naturally gifted player but what Dott lacks in excitement he makes up for in consistency.

The outcome of the match I believe will come down to the attitude Carter brings to the Palace. He's clearly not enjoying his snooker and if he's serious about retiring, then the question is "does he want to go out with a whimper or a bang?"

I hope it's a bang but I fear it will be a whimper, so my pick is Dott.

Masters Snooker - Jan 16

A couple of days away from trading for me. I often find that if I'm losing or scratching trades and leaving money in the market my confidence can drop and I find myself tensing up and unable to get in the zone and flow. A small break combined with dropping my stakes to well within my comfort zone I find helps me to refocus.

I've had a little bit of good fortune on the horses with 2 x 11/1 doubles and an amazing 174/1 treble which I was able to hedge for good profits. Backing horses, (even with a solid hedging strategy) is always going to suffer losing runs, with the wins (when they come) of offsetting the loses. It requires good bank management and to look at the long-term P&L rather than the day or week.

On the trading front I've got myself back into the zone with a 15% ROI on the snooker, 30% ROI on the darts and 185% ROI on the football. Small stakes admittedly but just the boost I need to my confidence after a patch start to 2012.

On to the snooker...

The Masters Snooker is a real treat. The invitational event attracts the worlds top 16 players and the quality of snooker on display is exceptional. If you've ever tried to play snooker you'll appreciate just how skilled these players really are. The opening matches saw Ronnie O'Sullivan and Mark Williams progress at the expense of defending champion Ding Junhui and #9 seed Steven Maguire. Both matches were close, both finishing 6-4 though the winners were never behind.

Matches - Jan 16

12:30 - Judd Trump - 1.43 (8) v Stuart Bingham - 3.25 (11)
Trump is the form player and rightly starts as favourite. After exploding onto the scene with a win at the China Open he finished 2011 with a fantastic win at the British Championships. Before 2011 that he'd only passed the 2nd round of a ranking event on one occasion. From being a relative unknown he now has the weight of expectation on his shoulders. He's not short of confidence and if there is a tiny chance of a pot he'll take it often at the risk of safety. That said he's not started tournaments well and is vulnerable to sulking if things don't go his way. He didn't really hit his stride until the QF's of the British Championships. Bingham will feel he has nothing to lose  and I can see him taking the first frame or 2 before Trump gets serious.

Update: Trump took the first frame then twice went behind before winning 6-4. This provided a couple of good swings and 48% ROI. We are now all set for a cracking 2nd round match with Ronnie O'Sullivan. 

19:00 - Shaun Murphy - 1.58 (6) v Martin Gould - 2.7 (16)
This could be closer than the odds suggest. Gould has rapidly risen up the rankings after returning to professional snooker after a break. He impressed me in the made for TV, Power Snooker format convincingly  beating strong favourite and defending champion Ronnie O'Sullivan the final. Head to head Murphy leads 3-0 and in every aspect he's the better player on paper. In their last 2 meetings though Murphy has thrown away commanding leads and let Gould back into the game. Gould's a great potter of the ball and quick. If he can get ahead early I think he'll take this. If Murphy leads then a lay on him could be a profitable trade as Gould could run him close.

For a second opinion check out this excellent snooker blog. http://www.snookerbacker.com/