Yesterday my trading started badly again as I was soon facing red on 3 matches. I needed to take some time to reduce it and made tiny profit at the end of the day. Also just 2 picks for me today:
3.00 Oprandi (2.58) - Goerges (1.61) - Australian open (round 3)
This is the second time those two will play each other. Last time Goerges won in straight sets, but it wasn't easy. Oprandi is in decent good running winning streak, winning Yakimova and Schiavone here in round 1 and 2 and battled through qualies in Hobart (winning against Wozniak, Vandeweghe and Tsurenko) then was beaten by very good Mona Barthel. Julia Goerges won in 1st round against Hercog and in 2nd round against Daniildiou who retired. It's a clear pattern in this match how it will go, Goerges will be trying to with harder shots, hitting winners, approaching net, trying to get some free points at the net, while Oprandi will be returning balls, waiting for her chance and more likely, waiting for Goerges to lose concentration and start hitting misguided balls. It will be a very tight match, where I see Oprandi can get the first set, then Goerges to come back in 2nd and the 3rd... Well, that's a big question, but I'll go with Oprandi to win 2-1, maybe even 2-0 if Goerges will not be able to recover.
5.00 Isner (1.85) - F.Lopez (2.16) - Australian open (3rd round)
Isners odds are very temptating to take from the start, since they are so high because Isner had some cramp problems at the end of 5th set vs Nalbandian, but he had 2 days to rest, so if it was just fatigue, he is clearly over it. Isners main weapon is of course serve and weapon is sound and ready as he has hit 43 aces vs Nalbandian. Everyone knows Isner is not a good mover, which may be concern because Lopez will move him around a lot, but he can and he should attack slower 2nd serve from Lopez. Lopez is left-hander, his first serve is strong, but he can be very shaky on 2nd serve as he tends to do many DF's. That's my concern, because Lopez was giving away BP to Mayer and to Cipolla like he was charity and he can't certainly not afford to be broken several times as he was in round 1 and round 2. Lopez thou may win a set, but in the end if Isner won't have any health problems, he will go through with 3-1 or 3-0.
No low backs today, since a lot of games will be tight when we have a clear winner if look at odds.
Prikaz objav z oznako australian open. Pokaži vse objave
Prikaz objav z oznako australian open. Pokaži vse objave
19. 1. 12
17. 1. 12
2nd round of Australian open
Yesterday I had a rough night, I quickly got some red numbers, managed to get back to evens, got red again, back to zero and whole night in that order from red to evens and back to red. In the morning I was too tired to continue anymore, so I ended the day with -1% of loss. 2nd and 3rd rounds are best for trading anyway, if you have done your "home-work" for 1st round, which I did. Again just 2 strong picks for me:
5.00 Isner (2.20) - Nalbandian (1.82) - Australian open (2nd round)
Nalbandian won last 2 matches again "Big" John Isner. One of them Isner retired and one was last year in Auckland. Nalbandian's fitness is a definitely worrying as this game will probably be long one, going at least for 4 sets if not 5. Isner will need a lots of cheap points won by his strong serve so he'll be at least fresher on Nalbandian's serve to try making a break. Isner's movement and shots were not exactly brilliant in 1st round against Mitchell, but he managed a 3-0 win anyway, with a great 3rd set. Nalbandian hasn't played a lot of matches, actually this match vs injured Niemienen (who retired) was first after his injury in October. Isner is definitely much weaker on longer rallies, where i believe Nalbandian will be dominating, but he can sometimes make 2 or 3 bad mistakes in a row and break for Isner could also mean a set. Odds are just to good to not go with big American, who also has a better record in grand slam in Melbourne then Nalbandian. If Isner's 1st serve will let him down, there will still be chance for him to come-back in 2nd set, because I believe when he'll find his serving rhythem he'll found also the key to winning this match. My call is Isner to win 3-1 with 2 sets in TB.
Update: Isner won 3-2, but was incredible how he managed to win it in 5th set. He was limping, had cramps, wanted to quit, was just walking on the court, then somehow saved BP in the 5th set and broke Nalbandian who couldn't believe it.
7.00 Dimitrov (2.44) - Almagro (1.68) - Australian open (2nd round)
It's true that Grigor Dimitrov is a promising young talent, but this will be too much for him to handle. Dimitrov can play some amazing points, then he'll totally fade and screw everything. This is a 5 set match, so I'm confident Almagro will be more consistent, plus Almagro has a very strong and solid 1st serve recently (15 aces against Kubot), which will allow him to cruise over some of his serving games and he'll sooner or later found the way to break Dimitrov. Almagro lost 1st set against Kubot in 1st round then turned things around and win it easily 3-1. Dimitrov had a lots of ups and downs vs Chardy, but managed to get a win at the end in 5 sets. Experience, better on rallies, more constant serve, less mistakes, everything points to Almagro winning this 3-0 or 3-1. If Almagro (which is a possibility) will start slower again, even better so we can back him on higher odds. I really don't thing Dimitrov can take this match.
Update: Almagro won 3-2.
Some matches where odds will go just down and down and are worth for taking those 20 or so ticks:
Stakhovsky - Anderson - Anderson's injury looks like a past and his serve is doing ok. Stakhovsky could play some good games, but eventually he'll fade away. Anderson to win 3-0. Anderson @ 1.32
Karlovic - Berlocq - Pretty much same thing here, Berlocq won't be able to fight off big serve of Karlovic and Karlovic will found a way to break him sooner or later. Else he'll just win it in TB. Karlovic @ 1.37
Querrey - Tomic - Querrey is a decent server, but Tomic is even better receiving and he plays smart tennis. Querrey will be a no match for young Australian. Odds are almost as high as vs Verdasco, that's crazy. Tomic @ 1.40
5.00 Isner (2.20) - Nalbandian (1.82) - Australian open (2nd round)
Nalbandian won last 2 matches again "Big" John Isner. One of them Isner retired and one was last year in Auckland. Nalbandian's fitness is a definitely worrying as this game will probably be long one, going at least for 4 sets if not 5. Isner will need a lots of cheap points won by his strong serve so he'll be at least fresher on Nalbandian's serve to try making a break. Isner's movement and shots were not exactly brilliant in 1st round against Mitchell, but he managed a 3-0 win anyway, with a great 3rd set. Nalbandian hasn't played a lot of matches, actually this match vs injured Niemienen (who retired) was first after his injury in October. Isner is definitely much weaker on longer rallies, where i believe Nalbandian will be dominating, but he can sometimes make 2 or 3 bad mistakes in a row and break for Isner could also mean a set. Odds are just to good to not go with big American, who also has a better record in grand slam in Melbourne then Nalbandian. If Isner's 1st serve will let him down, there will still be chance for him to come-back in 2nd set, because I believe when he'll find his serving rhythem he'll found also the key to winning this match. My call is Isner to win 3-1 with 2 sets in TB.
Update: Isner won 3-2, but was incredible how he managed to win it in 5th set. He was limping, had cramps, wanted to quit, was just walking on the court, then somehow saved BP in the 5th set and broke Nalbandian who couldn't believe it.
7.00 Dimitrov (2.44) - Almagro (1.68) - Australian open (2nd round)
It's true that Grigor Dimitrov is a promising young talent, but this will be too much for him to handle. Dimitrov can play some amazing points, then he'll totally fade and screw everything. This is a 5 set match, so I'm confident Almagro will be more consistent, plus Almagro has a very strong and solid 1st serve recently (15 aces against Kubot), which will allow him to cruise over some of his serving games and he'll sooner or later found the way to break Dimitrov. Almagro lost 1st set against Kubot in 1st round then turned things around and win it easily 3-1. Dimitrov had a lots of ups and downs vs Chardy, but managed to get a win at the end in 5 sets. Experience, better on rallies, more constant serve, less mistakes, everything points to Almagro winning this 3-0 or 3-1. If Almagro (which is a possibility) will start slower again, even better so we can back him on higher odds. I really don't thing Dimitrov can take this match.
Update: Almagro won 3-2.
Some matches where odds will go just down and down and are worth for taking those 20 or so ticks:
Stakhovsky - Anderson - Anderson's injury looks like a past and his serve is doing ok. Stakhovsky could play some good games, but eventually he'll fade away. Anderson to win 3-0. Anderson @ 1.32
Karlovic - Berlocq - Pretty much same thing here, Berlocq won't be able to fight off big serve of Karlovic and Karlovic will found a way to break him sooner or later. Else he'll just win it in TB. Karlovic @ 1.37
Querrey - Tomic - Querrey is a decent server, but Tomic is even better receiving and he plays smart tennis. Querrey will be a no match for young Australian. Odds are almost as high as vs Verdasco, that's crazy. Tomic @ 1.40
15. 1. 12
Australian open starting
1st round of Australian open is just few hours away. I'm very anxious about it. The selection of matches is just huge, so the hardest thing will be to pick the ones that are worth trading. I have run through almost all the matches, read the stats and my 3 strongest picks for trades are following: (I'll of course trade more then those 3)
1.00 - Kavcic (1.91) - Ward (2.08) - Australian open (1st round)
Kavcic starts this match as a slight favourite. He is more or less clay lover, on the other hand Ward has achieved any visible results only on hard courts and grass. Kavcic played just one match after 3rd of October and that was a worrying loss against Darcis in Chennai. Not because he lost against him, but the way he lost it. He was leading set and 5-1 in 2nd set, but managed to lose the match from that position. His confidence can't be high, he'll try to do his best thou. Ward came through qualies with wins against Minar, Cervantes-Huegnon and Sijsling, who aren't exactly top players, but he has some matches under the belt and his feel for the ball is definitely better then Slovenians.. Ward strongly depends on serve and will like to close the points soon, Kavcic serve is sometimes very shaky and definitely he's not big server + he likes to do double faults. If Ward will get his first serve around 60% or over that, he might be too hard for Kavcic to break. I believe in stronger start from Ward, who will take 1st set. After that it's about Kavcic if he'll find the feel. I think free points won from Ward should be the key to win this match. I go for Ward to win this 3-1.
Update: Kavcic won in straight sets. Ward had some chances thou, but couldn't hold his serve good enough.
5.00 Rochus (1.50)- Phau (3.00) - Australian open (1st round)
Rochus leads 3-1 in H2H matches, with Phau winning the last one, but it was 3 years ago, so it doesn't count much. Rochus had a wonderful tournament previous week in Auckland coming to finals, where he played a good match vs Ferrer, who came stronger in the end. He won against some good hard court players as Kohlschreiber, Bellucci, Kamke and Paire. His shots are well aimed, he plays aggressive and will be to much for Bjorn Phau to take it. Phau made through qualies with wins over oldie Clement (in very poor form), claycourter Crugnola and frenchmen Ruffin in 3 sets. His stats are nowhere close to brilliant and I think If Rochus will show just 50% of talent he showed in Auckland he'll be too much for Phau. Rochus to win this 3-0 or 3-1.
Update: Phau never got even close to be danger to Rochus. Rochus won 3-0.
5.00 Berlocq (1.96) - Huta Galung (2.02) - Australian open (1st round)
They start close at evens. We know what to expect from a good clay courter Berlocq. He will be better on rallies, he will struggle on serve, and may have problems if Huta Galung will take advantage and will play aggressive and will be commanding the points. But that's mainly depended on his 1st serve percentage which was from good to bad in qualifications. He played 2 very in poor players who anyone will win (Greul and Zampieri) the third one was a bit tougher vs David Guez. Berlocq could have a slower start and will need some time to adjust to game of Huta Galung but when he'll into the game, his technique will prevail and he'll outcome as a winner. I will personaly wait for HG to go ahead and then lay him on lower odds as I don't really see him winning this, but if, definitely not in 3 sets. I will go for Berlocq to win 3-2.
Update: Berlocq lost first set then he came back to win it 3-1.
Some low back picks that I believe won't have any problems at all (just odds over 1.10):
De Voest (3.30) vs Lu (1.40) - Lu to win at least 3-1. LU 3-2.
Benesova (1.25) vs Johansson (4.5) - Benesova to win 2-0. Benesova 2-0.
Pennetta (1.16) vs Bratchikova (6.8) - Pennetta to win 2-0. Penneta lost 1-2.
Lepchenko (5.5) vs Hantuchova (1.22) - Hantuchova to win 2-0. Hantuchova 2-1.
L.Mayer (5.50) vs F.Lopez (1.22) - F.Lopez to win 3-0. Lopez 3-0.
Garrigues (1.16) vs Bernerova (6.80) - Garrigues to win 2-0. Garrigues 2-0.
1.00 - Kavcic (1.91) - Ward (2.08) - Australian open (1st round)
Kavcic starts this match as a slight favourite. He is more or less clay lover, on the other hand Ward has achieved any visible results only on hard courts and grass. Kavcic played just one match after 3rd of October and that was a worrying loss against Darcis in Chennai. Not because he lost against him, but the way he lost it. He was leading set and 5-1 in 2nd set, but managed to lose the match from that position. His confidence can't be high, he'll try to do his best thou. Ward came through qualies with wins against Minar, Cervantes-Huegnon and Sijsling, who aren't exactly top players, but he has some matches under the belt and his feel for the ball is definitely better then Slovenians.. Ward strongly depends on serve and will like to close the points soon, Kavcic serve is sometimes very shaky and definitely he's not big server + he likes to do double faults. If Ward will get his first serve around 60% or over that, he might be too hard for Kavcic to break. I believe in stronger start from Ward, who will take 1st set. After that it's about Kavcic if he'll find the feel. I think free points won from Ward should be the key to win this match. I go for Ward to win this 3-1.
Update: Kavcic won in straight sets. Ward had some chances thou, but couldn't hold his serve good enough.
5.00 Rochus (1.50)- Phau (3.00) - Australian open (1st round)
Rochus leads 3-1 in H2H matches, with Phau winning the last one, but it was 3 years ago, so it doesn't count much. Rochus had a wonderful tournament previous week in Auckland coming to finals, where he played a good match vs Ferrer, who came stronger in the end. He won against some good hard court players as Kohlschreiber, Bellucci, Kamke and Paire. His shots are well aimed, he plays aggressive and will be to much for Bjorn Phau to take it. Phau made through qualies with wins over oldie Clement (in very poor form), claycourter Crugnola and frenchmen Ruffin in 3 sets. His stats are nowhere close to brilliant and I think If Rochus will show just 50% of talent he showed in Auckland he'll be too much for Phau. Rochus to win this 3-0 or 3-1.
Update: Phau never got even close to be danger to Rochus. Rochus won 3-0.
5.00 Berlocq (1.96) - Huta Galung (2.02) - Australian open (1st round)
They start close at evens. We know what to expect from a good clay courter Berlocq. He will be better on rallies, he will struggle on serve, and may have problems if Huta Galung will take advantage and will play aggressive and will be commanding the points. But that's mainly depended on his 1st serve percentage which was from good to bad in qualifications. He played 2 very in poor players who anyone will win (Greul and Zampieri) the third one was a bit tougher vs David Guez. Berlocq could have a slower start and will need some time to adjust to game of Huta Galung but when he'll into the game, his technique will prevail and he'll outcome as a winner. I will personaly wait for HG to go ahead and then lay him on lower odds as I don't really see him winning this, but if, definitely not in 3 sets. I will go for Berlocq to win 3-2.
Update: Berlocq lost first set then he came back to win it 3-1.
Some low back picks that I believe won't have any problems at all (just odds over 1.10):
De Voest (3.30) vs Lu (1.40) - Lu to win at least 3-1. LU 3-2.
Benesova (1.25) vs Johansson (4.5) - Benesova to win 2-0. Benesova 2-0.
Pennetta (1.16) vs Bratchikova (6.8) - Pennetta to win 2-0. Penneta lost 1-2.
Lepchenko (5.5) vs Hantuchova (1.22) - Hantuchova to win 2-0. Hantuchova 2-1.
L.Mayer (5.50) vs F.Lopez (1.22) - F.Lopez to win 3-0. Lopez 3-0.
Garrigues (1.16) vs Bernerova (6.80) - Garrigues to win 2-0. Garrigues 2-0.
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