17. 1. 12

2nd round of Australian open

Yesterday I had a rough night, I quickly got some red numbers, managed to get back to evens, got red again, back to zero and whole night in that order from red to evens and back to red. In the morning I was too tired to continue anymore, so I ended the day with -1% of loss. 2nd and 3rd rounds are best for trading anyway, if you have done your "home-work" for 1st round, which I did. Again just 2 strong picks for me:

5.00 Isner (2.20) - Nalbandian (1.82) - Australian open (2nd round)

Nalbandian won last 2 matches again "Big" John Isner. One of them Isner retired and one was last year in Auckland. Nalbandian's fitness is a definitely worrying as this game will probably be long one, going at least for 4 sets if not 5. Isner will need a lots of cheap points won by his strong serve so he'll be at least fresher on Nalbandian's serve to try making a break. Isner's movement and shots were not exactly brilliant in 1st round against Mitchell, but he managed a 3-0 win anyway, with a great 3rd set. Nalbandian hasn't played a lot of matches, actually this match vs injured Niemienen (who retired) was first after his injury in October. Isner is definitely much weaker on longer rallies, where i believe Nalbandian will be dominating, but he can sometimes make 2 or 3 bad mistakes in a row and break for Isner could also mean a set. Odds are just to good to not go with big American, who also has a better record in grand slam in Melbourne then Nalbandian. If Isner's 1st serve will let him down, there will still be chance for him to come-back in 2nd set, because I believe when he'll find his serving rhythem he'll found also the key to winning this match. My call is Isner to win 3-1 with 2 sets in TB.
Update: Isner won 3-2, but was incredible how he managed to win it in 5th set. He was limping, had cramps, wanted to quit, was just walking on the court, then somehow saved BP in the 5th set and broke Nalbandian who couldn't believe it.

7.00 Dimitrov (2.44) - Almagro (1.68) - Australian open (2nd round)
It's true that Grigor Dimitrov is a promising young talent, but this will be too much for him to handle. Dimitrov can play some amazing points, then he'll totally fade and screw everything. This is a 5 set match, so I'm confident Almagro will be more consistent, plus Almagro has a very strong and solid 1st serve recently (15 aces against Kubot), which will allow him to cruise over some of his serving games and he'll sooner or later found the way to break Dimitrov. Almagro lost 1st set against Kubot in 1st round then turned things around and win it easily 3-1. Dimitrov had a lots of ups and downs vs Chardy, but managed to get a win at the end in 5 sets. Experience, better on rallies, more constant serve, less mistakes, everything points to Almagro winning this 3-0 or 3-1. If Almagro (which is a possibility) will start slower again, even better so we can back him on higher odds. I really don't thing Dimitrov can take this match.
Update: Almagro won 3-2.

Some matches where odds will go just down and down and are worth for taking those 20 or so ticks:

Stakhovsky - Anderson - Anderson's injury looks like a past and his serve is doing ok. Stakhovsky could play some good games, but eventually he'll fade away. Anderson to win 3-0. Anderson @ 1.32

Karlovic - Berlocq - Pretty much same thing here, Berlocq won't be able to fight off big serve of Karlovic and Karlovic will found a way to break him sooner or later. Else he'll just win it in TB. Karlovic @ 1.37

Querrey - Tomic - Querrey is a decent server, but Tomic is even better receiving and he plays smart tennis. Querrey will be a no match for young Australian. Odds are almost as high as vs Verdasco, that's crazy. Tomic @ 1.40

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