Hello. Another not very good night even thou I have went into this night trading session fully prepared and fully fit. A couple of mistakes cost me some money. Must clear my mind and have a better start today. Just two picks again:
5.00 Lisicki (1.77) - Peer (2.24) - Australian open (2nd round)
Peer and Lisicki played 4 times and are tied at 2-2. With 2 wins from Peer on hard courts, including the last one in 2011. Lisicki had a couple of injuries lately, as she retired from Bali in November and also retired (abdominal problems) in QF of Auckland, that means she can't be really 100% fit her serve could be affected. Lisicki played 1st round vs Voegele and won 2-1, but looking at the stats, she struggled a lot, as Voegele had more BP then her and Lisicki 1st serve was just on 50% with more doubles then aces and amazingly she hit 55 unforced errors. Peer progressed through 1st round with easy win vs Holland. She played pre-AO tournament in Hobart where she reached semis. She won against Hradecka, who has a similar style of tennis as Lisicki. Peer is a player who plays constant tennis, with no big ups and downs and will like to have long rallies, where she will wait for mistakes of her opponent. My prediction is based mostly on that I don't believe Lisicki can drastically improve her performance against Voegele, and if she'll play as she did in 1st round, she is out for sure, because Peer will punish her mistakes. I'll go for Peer to win 2-1, but I'll be cautious as Lisicki can hit a purple patch and starts hitting everything in, then all we can do is quickly switch and stay on her, but I don't believe that will happen.
Update: After some good picks this one went awfully wrong. Lisicki was battering Peer from the start to the end. She was still doing some mistakes, but it was not even enough for Peer to come close to a threat. Lisicki won 6-1, 6-2. I tried with my lay in 2nd set, went out very quickly and but my money on Lisicki to get out with zero.
7.00 Benneteau (2.32) - Simon (1.74) - Australian open (2nd round)
My prediction on this one is similiar to the one above. Simon is not playing as we are used of him. He is not reliable on long rallies which used to be his biggest weapon. He had some problems in 1st round against Udomchoke, winning 3-2. Benneteau is playing good tennis recently, but he has also played a lot of matches recently (maybe too much?). Simon will probably start slower as he knows this is 5 sets match and he is twice more fit then Benny, so the longer the match will go, the stronger (or Benneteau weaker) Simon will be. Biggest chance for Bennetau is too start strongly and get ahead before Simon will wake up. So I'll go for a lay on Simon and when I'll see Simon waking up I'll lay Benneteau. I see a long match here, with Benneteau winning first or first two sets, then Simon will probably come back to 2-2 and in my opinion win 3-2. Simon is leading 5-1 in H2H matches...
Update: I was too tired in the morning to be able to trade it. Looks like Benneteau had a better start, won first set 7-5 and second 7-6. Then it was Simon's time to turn on as he won 3rd and 4th set quite easily. In the end the winner was Benneteau.
LOW BACK OF THE DAY:
Cirstea vs U. Radwanska - Cirstea to win @ 1.43 - Cirstea did win, but she was awful in first set and lost it 6-1. Then it turned the game around and win it easily.
Prikaz objav z oznako tennis trade. Pokaži vse objave
Prikaz objav z oznako tennis trade. Pokaži vse objave
18. 1. 12
17. 1. 12
2nd round of Australian open
Yesterday I had a rough night, I quickly got some red numbers, managed to get back to evens, got red again, back to zero and whole night in that order from red to evens and back to red. In the morning I was too tired to continue anymore, so I ended the day with -1% of loss. 2nd and 3rd rounds are best for trading anyway, if you have done your "home-work" for 1st round, which I did. Again just 2 strong picks for me:
5.00 Isner (2.20) - Nalbandian (1.82) - Australian open (2nd round)
Nalbandian won last 2 matches again "Big" John Isner. One of them Isner retired and one was last year in Auckland. Nalbandian's fitness is a definitely worrying as this game will probably be long one, going at least for 4 sets if not 5. Isner will need a lots of cheap points won by his strong serve so he'll be at least fresher on Nalbandian's serve to try making a break. Isner's movement and shots were not exactly brilliant in 1st round against Mitchell, but he managed a 3-0 win anyway, with a great 3rd set. Nalbandian hasn't played a lot of matches, actually this match vs injured Niemienen (who retired) was first after his injury in October. Isner is definitely much weaker on longer rallies, where i believe Nalbandian will be dominating, but he can sometimes make 2 or 3 bad mistakes in a row and break for Isner could also mean a set. Odds are just to good to not go with big American, who also has a better record in grand slam in Melbourne then Nalbandian. If Isner's 1st serve will let him down, there will still be chance for him to come-back in 2nd set, because I believe when he'll find his serving rhythem he'll found also the key to winning this match. My call is Isner to win 3-1 with 2 sets in TB.
Update: Isner won 3-2, but was incredible how he managed to win it in 5th set. He was limping, had cramps, wanted to quit, was just walking on the court, then somehow saved BP in the 5th set and broke Nalbandian who couldn't believe it.
7.00 Dimitrov (2.44) - Almagro (1.68) - Australian open (2nd round)
It's true that Grigor Dimitrov is a promising young talent, but this will be too much for him to handle. Dimitrov can play some amazing points, then he'll totally fade and screw everything. This is a 5 set match, so I'm confident Almagro will be more consistent, plus Almagro has a very strong and solid 1st serve recently (15 aces against Kubot), which will allow him to cruise over some of his serving games and he'll sooner or later found the way to break Dimitrov. Almagro lost 1st set against Kubot in 1st round then turned things around and win it easily 3-1. Dimitrov had a lots of ups and downs vs Chardy, but managed to get a win at the end in 5 sets. Experience, better on rallies, more constant serve, less mistakes, everything points to Almagro winning this 3-0 or 3-1. If Almagro (which is a possibility) will start slower again, even better so we can back him on higher odds. I really don't thing Dimitrov can take this match.
Update: Almagro won 3-2.
Some matches where odds will go just down and down and are worth for taking those 20 or so ticks:
Stakhovsky - Anderson - Anderson's injury looks like a past and his serve is doing ok. Stakhovsky could play some good games, but eventually he'll fade away. Anderson to win 3-0. Anderson @ 1.32
Karlovic - Berlocq - Pretty much same thing here, Berlocq won't be able to fight off big serve of Karlovic and Karlovic will found a way to break him sooner or later. Else he'll just win it in TB. Karlovic @ 1.37
Querrey - Tomic - Querrey is a decent server, but Tomic is even better receiving and he plays smart tennis. Querrey will be a no match for young Australian. Odds are almost as high as vs Verdasco, that's crazy. Tomic @ 1.40
5.00 Isner (2.20) - Nalbandian (1.82) - Australian open (2nd round)
Nalbandian won last 2 matches again "Big" John Isner. One of them Isner retired and one was last year in Auckland. Nalbandian's fitness is a definitely worrying as this game will probably be long one, going at least for 4 sets if not 5. Isner will need a lots of cheap points won by his strong serve so he'll be at least fresher on Nalbandian's serve to try making a break. Isner's movement and shots were not exactly brilliant in 1st round against Mitchell, but he managed a 3-0 win anyway, with a great 3rd set. Nalbandian hasn't played a lot of matches, actually this match vs injured Niemienen (who retired) was first after his injury in October. Isner is definitely much weaker on longer rallies, where i believe Nalbandian will be dominating, but he can sometimes make 2 or 3 bad mistakes in a row and break for Isner could also mean a set. Odds are just to good to not go with big American, who also has a better record in grand slam in Melbourne then Nalbandian. If Isner's 1st serve will let him down, there will still be chance for him to come-back in 2nd set, because I believe when he'll find his serving rhythem he'll found also the key to winning this match. My call is Isner to win 3-1 with 2 sets in TB.
Update: Isner won 3-2, but was incredible how he managed to win it in 5th set. He was limping, had cramps, wanted to quit, was just walking on the court, then somehow saved BP in the 5th set and broke Nalbandian who couldn't believe it.
7.00 Dimitrov (2.44) - Almagro (1.68) - Australian open (2nd round)
It's true that Grigor Dimitrov is a promising young talent, but this will be too much for him to handle. Dimitrov can play some amazing points, then he'll totally fade and screw everything. This is a 5 set match, so I'm confident Almagro will be more consistent, plus Almagro has a very strong and solid 1st serve recently (15 aces against Kubot), which will allow him to cruise over some of his serving games and he'll sooner or later found the way to break Dimitrov. Almagro lost 1st set against Kubot in 1st round then turned things around and win it easily 3-1. Dimitrov had a lots of ups and downs vs Chardy, but managed to get a win at the end in 5 sets. Experience, better on rallies, more constant serve, less mistakes, everything points to Almagro winning this 3-0 or 3-1. If Almagro (which is a possibility) will start slower again, even better so we can back him on higher odds. I really don't thing Dimitrov can take this match.
Update: Almagro won 3-2.
Some matches where odds will go just down and down and are worth for taking those 20 or so ticks:
Stakhovsky - Anderson - Anderson's injury looks like a past and his serve is doing ok. Stakhovsky could play some good games, but eventually he'll fade away. Anderson to win 3-0. Anderson @ 1.32
Karlovic - Berlocq - Pretty much same thing here, Berlocq won't be able to fight off big serve of Karlovic and Karlovic will found a way to break him sooner or later. Else he'll just win it in TB. Karlovic @ 1.37
Querrey - Tomic - Querrey is a decent server, but Tomic is even better receiving and he plays smart tennis. Querrey will be a no match for young Australian. Odds are almost as high as vs Verdasco, that's crazy. Tomic @ 1.40
15. 1. 12
Australian open starting
1st round of Australian open is just few hours away. I'm very anxious about it. The selection of matches is just huge, so the hardest thing will be to pick the ones that are worth trading. I have run through almost all the matches, read the stats and my 3 strongest picks for trades are following: (I'll of course trade more then those 3)
1.00 - Kavcic (1.91) - Ward (2.08) - Australian open (1st round)
Kavcic starts this match as a slight favourite. He is more or less clay lover, on the other hand Ward has achieved any visible results only on hard courts and grass. Kavcic played just one match after 3rd of October and that was a worrying loss against Darcis in Chennai. Not because he lost against him, but the way he lost it. He was leading set and 5-1 in 2nd set, but managed to lose the match from that position. His confidence can't be high, he'll try to do his best thou. Ward came through qualies with wins against Minar, Cervantes-Huegnon and Sijsling, who aren't exactly top players, but he has some matches under the belt and his feel for the ball is definitely better then Slovenians.. Ward strongly depends on serve and will like to close the points soon, Kavcic serve is sometimes very shaky and definitely he's not big server + he likes to do double faults. If Ward will get his first serve around 60% or over that, he might be too hard for Kavcic to break. I believe in stronger start from Ward, who will take 1st set. After that it's about Kavcic if he'll find the feel. I think free points won from Ward should be the key to win this match. I go for Ward to win this 3-1.
Update: Kavcic won in straight sets. Ward had some chances thou, but couldn't hold his serve good enough.
5.00 Rochus (1.50)- Phau (3.00) - Australian open (1st round)
Rochus leads 3-1 in H2H matches, with Phau winning the last one, but it was 3 years ago, so it doesn't count much. Rochus had a wonderful tournament previous week in Auckland coming to finals, where he played a good match vs Ferrer, who came stronger in the end. He won against some good hard court players as Kohlschreiber, Bellucci, Kamke and Paire. His shots are well aimed, he plays aggressive and will be to much for Bjorn Phau to take it. Phau made through qualies with wins over oldie Clement (in very poor form), claycourter Crugnola and frenchmen Ruffin in 3 sets. His stats are nowhere close to brilliant and I think If Rochus will show just 50% of talent he showed in Auckland he'll be too much for Phau. Rochus to win this 3-0 or 3-1.
Update: Phau never got even close to be danger to Rochus. Rochus won 3-0.
5.00 Berlocq (1.96) - Huta Galung (2.02) - Australian open (1st round)
They start close at evens. We know what to expect from a good clay courter Berlocq. He will be better on rallies, he will struggle on serve, and may have problems if Huta Galung will take advantage and will play aggressive and will be commanding the points. But that's mainly depended on his 1st serve percentage which was from good to bad in qualifications. He played 2 very in poor players who anyone will win (Greul and Zampieri) the third one was a bit tougher vs David Guez. Berlocq could have a slower start and will need some time to adjust to game of Huta Galung but when he'll into the game, his technique will prevail and he'll outcome as a winner. I will personaly wait for HG to go ahead and then lay him on lower odds as I don't really see him winning this, but if, definitely not in 3 sets. I will go for Berlocq to win 3-2.
Update: Berlocq lost first set then he came back to win it 3-1.
Some low back picks that I believe won't have any problems at all (just odds over 1.10):
De Voest (3.30) vs Lu (1.40) - Lu to win at least 3-1. LU 3-2.
Benesova (1.25) vs Johansson (4.5) - Benesova to win 2-0. Benesova 2-0.
Pennetta (1.16) vs Bratchikova (6.8) - Pennetta to win 2-0. Penneta lost 1-2.
Lepchenko (5.5) vs Hantuchova (1.22) - Hantuchova to win 2-0. Hantuchova 2-1.
L.Mayer (5.50) vs F.Lopez (1.22) - F.Lopez to win 3-0. Lopez 3-0.
Garrigues (1.16) vs Bernerova (6.80) - Garrigues to win 2-0. Garrigues 2-0.
1.00 - Kavcic (1.91) - Ward (2.08) - Australian open (1st round)
Kavcic starts this match as a slight favourite. He is more or less clay lover, on the other hand Ward has achieved any visible results only on hard courts and grass. Kavcic played just one match after 3rd of October and that was a worrying loss against Darcis in Chennai. Not because he lost against him, but the way he lost it. He was leading set and 5-1 in 2nd set, but managed to lose the match from that position. His confidence can't be high, he'll try to do his best thou. Ward came through qualies with wins against Minar, Cervantes-Huegnon and Sijsling, who aren't exactly top players, but he has some matches under the belt and his feel for the ball is definitely better then Slovenians.. Ward strongly depends on serve and will like to close the points soon, Kavcic serve is sometimes very shaky and definitely he's not big server + he likes to do double faults. If Ward will get his first serve around 60% or over that, he might be too hard for Kavcic to break. I believe in stronger start from Ward, who will take 1st set. After that it's about Kavcic if he'll find the feel. I think free points won from Ward should be the key to win this match. I go for Ward to win this 3-1.
Update: Kavcic won in straight sets. Ward had some chances thou, but couldn't hold his serve good enough.
5.00 Rochus (1.50)- Phau (3.00) - Australian open (1st round)
Rochus leads 3-1 in H2H matches, with Phau winning the last one, but it was 3 years ago, so it doesn't count much. Rochus had a wonderful tournament previous week in Auckland coming to finals, where he played a good match vs Ferrer, who came stronger in the end. He won against some good hard court players as Kohlschreiber, Bellucci, Kamke and Paire. His shots are well aimed, he plays aggressive and will be to much for Bjorn Phau to take it. Phau made through qualies with wins over oldie Clement (in very poor form), claycourter Crugnola and frenchmen Ruffin in 3 sets. His stats are nowhere close to brilliant and I think If Rochus will show just 50% of talent he showed in Auckland he'll be too much for Phau. Rochus to win this 3-0 or 3-1.
Update: Phau never got even close to be danger to Rochus. Rochus won 3-0.
5.00 Berlocq (1.96) - Huta Galung (2.02) - Australian open (1st round)
They start close at evens. We know what to expect from a good clay courter Berlocq. He will be better on rallies, he will struggle on serve, and may have problems if Huta Galung will take advantage and will play aggressive and will be commanding the points. But that's mainly depended on his 1st serve percentage which was from good to bad in qualifications. He played 2 very in poor players who anyone will win (Greul and Zampieri) the third one was a bit tougher vs David Guez. Berlocq could have a slower start and will need some time to adjust to game of Huta Galung but when he'll into the game, his technique will prevail and he'll outcome as a winner. I will personaly wait for HG to go ahead and then lay him on lower odds as I don't really see him winning this, but if, definitely not in 3 sets. I will go for Berlocq to win 3-2.
Update: Berlocq lost first set then he came back to win it 3-1.
Some low back picks that I believe won't have any problems at all (just odds over 1.10):
De Voest (3.30) vs Lu (1.40) - Lu to win at least 3-1. LU 3-2.
Benesova (1.25) vs Johansson (4.5) - Benesova to win 2-0. Benesova 2-0.
Pennetta (1.16) vs Bratchikova (6.8) - Pennetta to win 2-0. Penneta lost 1-2.
Lepchenko (5.5) vs Hantuchova (1.22) - Hantuchova to win 2-0. Hantuchova 2-1.
L.Mayer (5.50) vs F.Lopez (1.22) - F.Lopez to win 3-0. Lopez 3-0.
Garrigues (1.16) vs Bernerova (6.80) - Garrigues to win 2-0. Garrigues 2-0.
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