18. 1. 12

2nd round part 2

Hello. Another not very good night even thou I have went into this night trading session fully prepared and fully fit. A couple of mistakes cost me some money. Must clear my mind and have a better start today. Just two picks again:

5.00 Lisicki (1.77) - Peer (2.24) - Australian open (2nd round)
Peer and Lisicki played 4 times and are tied at 2-2. With 2 wins from Peer on hard courts, including the last one in 2011. Lisicki had a couple of injuries lately, as she retired from Bali in November and also retired (abdominal problems) in QF of Auckland, that means she can't be really 100% fit her serve could be affected. Lisicki played 1st round vs Voegele and won 2-1, but looking at the stats, she struggled a lot, as Voegele had more BP then her and Lisicki 1st serve was just on 50% with more doubles then aces and amazingly she hit 55 unforced errors. Peer progressed through 1st round with easy win vs Holland. She played pre-AO tournament in Hobart where she reached semis. She won against Hradecka, who has a similar style of tennis as Lisicki. Peer is a player who plays constant tennis, with no big ups and downs and will like to have long rallies, where she will wait for mistakes of her opponent. My prediction is based mostly on that I don't believe Lisicki can drastically improve her performance against Voegele, and if she'll play as she did in 1st round, she is out for sure, because Peer will punish her mistakes. I'll go for Peer to win 2-1, but I'll be cautious as Lisicki can hit a purple patch and starts hitting everything in, then all we can do is quickly switch and stay on her, but I don't believe that will happen.
Update: After some good picks this one went awfully wrong. Lisicki was battering Peer from the start to the end. She was still doing some mistakes, but it was not even enough for Peer to come close to a threat. Lisicki won 6-1, 6-2. I tried with my lay in 2nd set, went out very quickly and but my money on Lisicki to get out with zero.

7.00 Benneteau (2.32) - Simon (1.74) - Australian open (2nd round)
My prediction on this one is similiar to the one above. Simon is not playing as we are used of him. He is not reliable on long rallies which used to be his biggest weapon. He had some problems in 1st round against Udomchoke, winning 3-2. Benneteau is playing good tennis recently, but he has also played a lot of matches recently (maybe too much?). Simon will probably start slower as he knows this is 5 sets match and he is twice more fit then Benny, so the longer the match will go, the stronger (or Benneteau weaker) Simon will be. Biggest chance for Bennetau is too start strongly and get ahead before Simon will wake up. So I'll go for a lay on Simon and when I'll see Simon waking up I'll lay Benneteau. I see a long match here, with Benneteau winning first or first two sets, then Simon will probably come back to 2-2 and in my opinion win 3-2. Simon is leading 5-1 in H2H matches...
Update: I was too tired in the morning to be able to trade it. Looks like Benneteau had a better start, won first set 7-5 and second 7-6. Then it was Simon's time to turn on as he won 3rd and 4th set quite easily. In the end the winner was Benneteau.

LOW BACK OF THE DAY:

Cirstea vs U. Radwanska - Cirstea to win @ 1.43 - Cirstea did win, but she was awful in first set and lost it 6-1. Then it turned the game around and win it easily.

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