16. 1. 12

1st round, part 2

Decent profit on yesterdays first round matches, let us hope for something similar today. Since I'm pretty occupied and on tight with time, I'll write just 2 picks:

1.00 - Kirilenko (1.78) - Gajdosova (2.26) - Australian open (1st round)
Well, this will definitely be a interesting match. Kirilenko starts as a slight favourite here, but her recent results show she is not in form she was some months ago. Barely winning against Lepchenko and a terrible lost against Arviddson isn't exactly good. Her 2nd serve is problematic too, either slow or double fault. Gajdosova is Australian girl who will have a huge support from the crowd, since everyone would love to see her finally reaching 2nd round of AO. She will definitely be nervous and her mental strentgh is always questionable. She played decent tournament in Hobart, where she was kicked out from winner Mona Barthel. If her nerves won't be too much of a problem and if she'll be serving good, she has decent chances to overpower Kirilenko. Gajdosova definitely has stronger shots, but we will see if the accurancy of these flat power-shots will be good enough. Kirilenko will be fighting from the base-line and making her hard to win points. We will be able to see quickly how this game will go, but I believe Gajdosova is finally prepared for her step to 2nd round, but it will be tight and will need a help from bad serving from Kirilenko. I go for Gajdosova to win 2-1, winning first set then losing a tight one and another tight 3rd set win for Gajdosova.
Update: Gajdosova played whole match with "two faces". She showed some great shots on her serving side, then completely faded on receiving side. Gajdosova was broken in 1st game of the match due to DF's, but then she was holding ok till the end, but failed to break Kirilenko. She had soooo many great opportunities, but she didn't managed the easiest shots and the number of unforced errors was astonishingly high. I kept laying Kirilenko, as I though Gajdosova must take of her chances, but she failed. In the end Kirilenko broke her in 2nd set too and won in straight sets. I ended with high, but still managable red on this game.

3.00 - Gulbis (1.77) - Llodra (2.28) - Australian open (1st round)
Serve & rush player Llodra is coming to AO without any serious match practice in year 2012, but he is experienced player, so he won't mind getting behind in first set, as he knows he has more then enough time to come back. Gulbis played just one, with a decent lose againt Youzhny. Odds seem quite right, but I see here a very tight match, so I'll wait for someone to go ahead. More then likely that will be Gulbis, so the lay should be quite cheap after end of 1st set. None of them have enjoyed any visible results in AO. I will go for Gulbis as fresher, younger player to win this match 3-2 or 3-1. But if Llodra will fight, he will at start of 2nd set. So I'm going there for a lay.
Update: As expected, Gulbis went ahead very quickly, was trading around 1.15 in 1st set already, so I layed, wait for break and hold for Llodra in 2nd set and hedged out for average profit. Looking at the result I should have stayed till the end, as Gulbis totally collapsed and won just 3 or 4 games after winning first set.

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